Australian Politics Forum - Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown

Sir lastnail

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Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 2:02pm

So much for the housing sector taking over from mining !!

Quote:

AUSTRALIA faces an extended slump as evidence mounts the wider economy is failing to pick up the slack from a slowdown in mining.

Two of the nation's leading economic forecasters have warned the transition away from the mining boom is likely to be slower and more painful than thought.

Latest economic snapshots show low interest rates are failing to spark activity in critical non-mining sectors such as housing construction, leaving the nation at risk of extended below trend growth.

In research to be published today, Deloitte Access Economics says the value of resources projects has fallen for the second consecutive quarter - the first time this has happened in more than a decade.

The pullback has been in planned projects as higher costs, lower commodity prices and a slowdown in China prompts miners to cancel expansion plans.

Despite the pullback, the value of definite resources projects - those already under way or that have funds in place - continued to rise to hit $227 billion at the end of June. The report finds major investment in new liquefied natural gas developments is underpinning much of the current spend.

It comes as oil and gas players launch a national advertising blitz, warning that more than $150 billion of proposed gas developments are under threat from anti-fracking protesters.

Overall, the total value of projects across all sectors fell $51.8 billion over the June quarter to $887.1 billion, Deloitte found.

The value of definite projects rose 3.7 per cent to $468.1 million -- the highest on record -- while the value of planned projects fell 14.3 per cent to $410 billion.

The Reserve Bank has cut the official cash rate to an historic low of 2.75 per cent in a bid to stimulate the housing sector as the mining boom moves from construction to production.

Deloitte partner Stephen Smith yesterday said the outlook for housing "remains shaky" and it was unlikely to emerge as the key driver of future growth as planned by the RBA.

"With non-residential building approvals well below their pre-GFC levels, and with governments looking to constrain spending, this category of construction activity is looking increasingly unlikely to take over the mantle of growth driver for the Australian economy," Mr Smith said.

"We do expect a period of below-trend growth for . . . the next couple of years."

The Deloitte report follows an update from BIS Shrapnel that also warned the transition away from the mining sector would be "a real nail biter".

BIS Shrapnel associate director Kim Hawtrey said building activity would pick up across the nation over the next two years but the pace would be "uncomfortably slow" and not all states would benefit.

"Home building has been punching below its weight and normally low mortgage rates would be stimulating the sector toward clear recovery by now but the antibiotics are taking longer to work this time around," Ms Hawtrey said.

"High household debt, concerns about the global economy, planning restrictions in some states and lack of land supply are among the factors that explain this."

BIS Shrapnel says Victoria will feel the brunt of the pain with housing in oversupply.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/slump-fears-deepen-over-mining-slowdown/sto...

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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Grappler Deep State Feller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 85378 Always was always will be HOME Gender:	Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown Reply #1 - Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 6:03pm Don't forget the $33bn downfall into the Budget Black Hole and the projected 800,000 unemployment and slowing 'growth'.... all on the news right now as I type...maybe we should bring in national service after all.... keep 'em off the streets where it's cold...
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Sir lastnail

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #2 - Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 7:19pm

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 6:03pm:

Don't forget the $33bn downfall into the Budget Black Hole and the projected 800,000 unemployment and slowing 'growth'.... all on the news right now as I type...maybe we should bring in national service after all.... keep 'em off the streets where it's cold...

Yes just saw more about this on the ABC news. I think the GFC has finally caught up with us after the debt binge has fizzled out.

Quote:

Labor's updated economic statement: Key points

The Government's updated economic statement shows slower economic growth, higher unemployment and a $30 billion deficit this year.

It is a tough time to be Treasurer Chris Bowen: he is grappling with revenue shortfalls, while there has also been more Government spending and a few cost blow-outs.

As it tries to plug the budget hole, the Government has made spending cuts and tax hikes worth $17.4 billion.

Here are some of the key points in the mini-budget-style document, viewed as the last major item on Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's pre-election agenda.

The state of the budget

The statement, released by Mr Bowen and Finance Minister Penny Wong, shows revenue is $33.3 billion lower over four years since the May budget.

The predicted deficit for 2013-14 has gone from $18 billion to $30 billion. In 2014-15 it has gone from $11 billion to $24 billion.

In 2015-16, when the budget was supposed to be in balance - a small surplus of $800 million - it will have a deficit of $4.7 billion.

The Government says its target for a surplus in 2016-17 will be met, but has been significantly trimmed from $6.6 billion to $4 billion.

The Government says the figures reveal a "medium-term consolidation and path back to surplus" which it says is appropriate given "Australia's strong economic fundamentals".

"We have taken responsible savings and revenue decisions," Mr Bowen said.

"You can be cute about these things, but is it being fair dinkum with the Australian people? We're calling it as we see it. We're saying there are challenges here."

Cuts and tax hikes worth $17.4 billion have been made as the Government tries to fill the budget hole.

Economic growth is also expected to be softer, with GDP growth at 2.5 per cent in 2013-14, down from 2.75 per cent in the May budget.

That will push up unemployment to 6.25 per cent for this year and next year - representing a further 70,000 people out of work.

"They are still impressive figures in the worldwide context," Mr Bowen said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-08-02/key-measures-in-labors-updated-economic-st...

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #3 - Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 7:27pm

I t has been apparent for some time that Mining, Housing Construction & Manufacturing would slow, at least it was apparent to me!

The key question is WHY IS IT SLOWING & once that question gets a proper & logical answer, THEN IT ALSO BECOMES APPARENT THAT THE USUAL ECONOMIC FIXES WON'T WORK THIS TIME & THERE WILL BE NO USUAL BOUNCE BACK, EITHER HERE, NOR GLOBALLY!!!

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Sir lastnail

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #4 - Aug 3^rd, 2013 at 11:19am

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 7:27pm:

I t has been apparent for some time that Mining, Housing Construction & Manufacturing would slow, at least it was apparent to me!

The key question is WHY IS IT SLOWING & once that question gets a proper & logical answer, THEN IT ALSO BECOMES APPARENT THAT THE USUAL ECONOMIC FIXES WON'T WORK THIS TIME & THERE WILL BE NO USUAL BOUNCE BACK, EITHER HERE, NOR GLOBALLY!!!

housing is slowing because the rest of the economy is slowing. The bubble is about to burst and there are no more rabbits that dudd can pull out of his hat to keep the bubble inflated.

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #5 - Aug 3^rd, 2013 at 12:25pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 3^rd, 2013 at 11:19am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 2^nd, 2013 at 7:27pm:

I t has been apparent for some time that Mining, Housing Construction & Manufacturing would slow, at least it was apparent to me!

The key question is WHY IS IT SLOWING & once that question gets a proper & logical answer, THEN IT ALSO BECOMES APPARENT THAT THE USUAL ECONOMIC FIXES WON'T WORK THIS TIME & THERE WILL BE NO USUAL BOUNCE BACK, EITHER HERE, NOR GLOBALLY!!!

housing is slowing because the rest of the economy is slowing. The bubble is about to burst and there are no more rabbits that dudd can pull out of his hat to keep the bubble inflated.

Well, I would agree, Rudd & Labor can not now prevent that which he & his OZ Political predecessors (from both major parties) AND POLITICIANS GLOBALLY, HAVE SET UP OVER SOME 40-50 YEARS, BOTH BY THEIR ACTIONS & INACTIONS!

What is still open to conjecture, IS WHAT WILL BE THE FINAL TRIGGER/S & THE TIMING OF EVENTS LOCALLY, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, GLOBALLY.

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Sir lastnail Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 30102 Gender:	Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown Reply #6 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:06pm it's funny how big hole doesn't troll this thread. Perhaps the evidence is too over whelming for his pea brain to handle. LOL
Back to top	In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”. IP Logged

longweekend58

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #7 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:27pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:06pm:

it's funny how big hole doesn't troll this thread. Perhaps the evidence is too over whelming for his pea brain to handle. Cheesy

LOL

more likely just sick of replying to a moron like you where every topic leads you to Housing, EVs or the Catholic Church. and to prove the point... this is a thread on mining and you are talking about.... housing.

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Sir lastnail

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #8 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 3:37pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:27pm:

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:06pm:

it's funny how big hole doesn't troll this thread. Perhaps the evidence is too over whelming for his pea brain to handle. Cheesy

LOL

more likely just sick of replying to a moron like you where every topic leads you to Housing, EVs or the Catholic Church. and to prove the point... this is a thread on mining and you are talking about.... housing.

so have you heard the latest ? Holden is getting another 200 million in handouts !! When will it end ??

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In August 2021, Newcastle Coroner Karen Dilks recorded that Lisa Shaw had died “due to complications of an AstraZeneca COVID vaccination”.

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Grappler Deep State Feller

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #9 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 3:38pm

Sorry I had to fight at your Bitch Panther Party!

Umm - there was an issue there.... I'm glad to see that *some* people realise that the real problems today are the result of both *sides* of the Tag Team and their (*gasps*) often calculated ineptitude, which mysteriously favours - how unusual - the well-heeled in the short term in their endless pursuit of mega-profits.

I've suspected and noted for some time that we do indeed live in a time and a country filled with robber barons, and these are aided and abetted by those we 'elect' to support us all (*gags*) equally.....

(look over and consider the import of the strand on juries and courts and so forth to seek a common theme - where IS doninconsequenti to call me mad - again?)

You need only look at the current crop of industry 'leaders' to see what I mean - and then to look at the way this approach of immorality pervades down into our society.

Hope you are all going to be happy in your New Serfdom - me - I want that job in The Big House.... sure beats them cotton fields...

800,000 unemployed - Christ - it reads like some Eastern Front battle in World War II.... Cry

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/true-unemployment-at-13-per-cent-australian...

http://www.pc.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/60479/workforceparticipation.pd...

"In 2005, there were 10.5 million Australians of working age (those aged 15 yearsand over) participatingin the workforce. Around 5.8 million or 55 per cent were
male, while 4.7 million (45 per cent) were female. "

Now - that figure is outdated - as per usual - you find current ones - so if I accept that say 12 million (sounds right) is the current workforce - and take 800,000......

= 6.67% unemployed....

If I look at that as a proportion of 5.8% to 13.2% - real underemployment runs at about 15-16% - OR about one in six of the people you went to school with (*pauses portentously*) WILL NEVER HOLD A JOB IN THE CURRENT ECONOMIC CLIMATE HERE!

Happy now with all the luxury social engineering we are forced to put up with on a daily basis?

Now - I don't know how you feel about that or if you think this is 'normal' - but I don't.

(re-heats popcorn and awaits the deluge of Philistines).

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« Last Edit: Aug 4^th, 2013 at 4:39pm by Grappler Deep State Feller »

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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Grappler Deep State Feller

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #10 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 4:59pm

Mercy? You expected mercy?

And now for your intermediate exam on this subject.... (rolling thunder offstage).....

Sophie's Choice!

a) YOU get to choose which one in six of your classmates will live in poverty and despair for life......... quickly now - time and gulag wait for no person....

b) discuss immorality in government and policy as pertaining to the real world of the ordinary person.......give reasons and thoughts on why this is so..... and will remain so....

Grin

c) offer alternatives and suggestions for improvement....

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« Last Edit: Aug 4^th, 2013 at 7:55pm by Grappler Deep State Feller »

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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BigOl64

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #11 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 5:22pm

Sir lastnail wrote on Aug 4^th, 2013 at 12:06pm:

it's funny how big hole doesn't troll this thread. Perhaps the evidence is too over whelming for his pea brain to handle. Cheesy

LOL

What do you want to do, the usual of pointing out you're a smacking idiot or something more specific?

You are as needy as you boy toy. Grin

I don't follow you around you know, you're nobody and rarely worth any effort, so why do you want me to "troll this thread"?

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Grappler Deep State Feller

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Re: Slump fears deepen over mining slowdown
Reply #12 - Aug 4^th, 2013 at 7:57pm

*inserts new bag of popcorn in the microwave*

Grin

.

Oyez oyez - the House will come to Order! Election called for 7th September - just saw Bruvver Rudd telling us all that Lab had created 960,000 jobs, and had a $1bn plan to generate jobs in the high tech arena (yup - world leaders here in Oz!).

Any thoughts here, Fellow Members and Unelected Swill of the OP Star Chamber? Cheesy

"In this corn-ah, weighing in at an intellectual light weight of 27 lbs... the one.. the only Big Ole...64.... The Townsville Terror!

In THIS corn-ah - weighing in at an equal weight of 27 lbs, the inimitable, one and only champ-eeen of his world - last nail.... "

Now - gentlemen - no foul blows, break when the referee says, obey the bell... now to your corners and come out farting!" Cool

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« Last Edit: Aug 4^th, 2013 at 8:50pm by Grappler Deep State Feller »

“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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