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There has been no warming since the year 1998 (Read 15673 times)

Ajax

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There has been no warming since the year 1998
Aug 7^th, 2013 at 12:19pm

If we look at the graphs below most of the global warming during the 20th centrury happened before 1940.

So the AGW religion couldn't even get that right, they report that most of the warming happened after 1950.

When we all know that temperatures fell between 1940 and 1970 which sparked these very same clowns into action about global cooling and an ice age.

Quote:

To verify the claim that global warming since 1950 is mostly man made, we may compare the global warming rate in degree centigrade (deg C) per decade in one period before 1950 to that of a second period after 1950 to determine the effect of the increased human emission of CO2.

To be able to do this, we need to identify these two periods, which may be established from the Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (GMTA) data of the CRU shown in

Figure 1.

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As our objective is to verify the claim that global warming since 1950 is man made, we need to identify two global warming phases before and after 1950.

To clearly see the global warming and cooling phases, we plot just the Oscillating GMTA, which is the GMTA relative to the overall linear warming trend line shown in Figure 1.

This can be done by using an online software at

http://www.woodfortrees.org

by rotating the overall linear warming trend line to become horizontal by using a detrend value of 0.775 so that the Oscillating GMTA has neither overall warming nor cooling trend.

The noise from the Oscillating GMTA is then removed by taking five-years averages (compress = 60 months) of the GMTA.

The result thus obtained is shown in Figure 2.

Quote:

Figure 2 shows the following periods for relative global cooling and warming phases:

1. 30-years of global cooling from 1880 to 1910
2. 30-years of global warming from 1910 to 1940
3. 30-years of global cooling from 1940 to 1970
4. 30-years of global warming from 1970 to 2000

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/01/a-primer-for-disproving-ipcc%E2%80%99s-the...

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One of the few non-controversial datasets in climate change is the Keeling curve, the graph of the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere reproduced here:

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Human emissions of CO2 caused by burning of fossil fuels and production of cement have risen similarly:

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And the third data source to look at (for simplicity’s sake–we could actually look at dozens of data sources) is temperature changes.

This chart shows the global average temperature change from a ‘normal’ 30-year range from 1950-1980. It comes from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, led by scientist James Hansen.

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Here’s what temperatures look like more recently.

Now this is the interesting thing right, nearly one third of ALL manmade CO2 emissions have been sent up into our atmosphere since 1998, yet temperatures are dropping.

According to the alarmists temperatures would need to be sky rocketing.

Quote:

And almost one-third of that number, 110 billion metric tonnes, have occurred since that time in 1998 when temperatures reached their temporary plateau.

But one-third of all human emissions of CO2 have occurred since 1998. And temperatures haven’t budged as a result.

Full story here

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/06/a-problem-nearly-one-third-of-co2-emission...

keeling curve

Even the IPCC confirm temperatures have been dropping when CO2 emissions have increased.

Ipcc chart

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/11/does-co2-correlate-with-temperature-histor...

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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rabbitoh07

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #1 - Aug 7^th, 2013 at 1:03pm

Why have the oceans continued to warm if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2012-state-climate-oc...

Why has global glacial mass balance continued to decrease if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
http://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/inline_all/public/glacierloss1980-2011_620.jpgitok=ho6Uw1ow
http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2012-state-climate-gl...

Why has sea level continued to rise if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2012-state-climate-gl...

Why has the arctic ice cap continued to melt if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/2012-state-climate-ar...

Any answers?

Or will you just continue to quote nonsense from denier blogs and tabloid newspaper columnists and pretend that decades of accumulated scientific evidence simply don't exist?

And why do continually repeat the lie:
the IPCC have admitted that there has been no warming since 1998?
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366374129/47#47

We are waiting....

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Ajax

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #2 - Aug 7^th, 2013 at 1:56pm

Once gain your clutching at straws........!!!!

Could it be a stransfer of heat.........?????

Remember the 3000 buoys from 2004 have not detected any increase in ocean heat down to 2000 metres.

Quote:

So let’s take a look at the North Atlantic ocean heat content data. Based on the linear trend, the ocean heat content data of the North Atlantic for the depths of 0-2000 meters haven’t warmed from 2005 to 2012. See Figure 4. And the data for depths of 0-700 meters show cooling in the North Atlantic. The additional warming at the depths of 700-2000 meters (illustrated by the “difference”) was comparable to the cooling at 0-700 meters, inferring there might simply have been an exchange of heat between two depth ranges, but there is no evidence of manmade greenhouse gas-driven warming in the North Atlantic from 2005-2012.

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Also recall that Mauritzen et al (2012) Importance of density-compensated temperature change for deep North Atlantic Ocean heat uptake (paywalled) found that while the upper 2000 meters of the North Atlantic warmed since the 1950s, the deep ocean below 2000 meters cooled, suggesting an exchange of heat between the deep ocean and the depths above 2000 meters. That cooling below 2000 meters is obviously not considered in the NODC ocean heat content data. Mauritzen et al (2012) was discussed in my post Is Ocean Heat Content All It’s Stacked up to Be? under the heading of SPEAKING OF STILL-TO-BE-DISCOVERED SUBSURFACE OCEAN PROCESSES.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/03/ocean-heat-content-0-to-2000-meters-why-ar...

« Last Edit: Aug 7^th, 2013 at 5:44pm by Ajax »

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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rabbitoh07

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #3 - Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:05pm

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 1:56pm:

Once gain your clutching at straws........!!!!

Could it be a stransfer of heat.........?????

Remember the 3000 buoys from 2004 have not detected any increase in ocean heat down to 2000 metres.

Yes - I am sure you can find all sorts of wacky "opinions" on those blogs you read.

But don't you think it would be better to form your own opinions on actual peer reviewed science?

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950–2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage5, 6, 7 and applying recent corrections8 to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations9. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961–2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993–2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors8, 9, 10. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 ± 0.4 mm yr-1, in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies6, 7) of 1.6 ± 0.2 mm yr-1.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7198/full/nature07080.html

The oceans are warming.
This is why sea levels are rising.

If the oceans were not warming - why would sea levels be rising?

Do you have some "evidence" by a children's TV presenter or Daily Mail columnist to tell us that sea levels are not rising?

And we are still waiting for you to answer:
Why has global glacial mass balance continued to decrease if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
Why has the arctic ice cap continued to melt if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
And, why has sea level continued to rise if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

Any answers yet?

Or will you just continue to quote nonsense from denier blogs and tabloid newspaper columnists and pretend that decades of accumulated scientific evidence simply don't exist?

And why do you continually repeat the lie:
the IPCC have admitted that there has been no warming since 1998?
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366374129/47#47

We are waiting....

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Ajax

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #4 - Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:35pm

rabbitoh07 wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:05pm:

Yes - I am sure you can find all sorts of wacky "opinions" on those blogs you read.

But don't you think it would be better to form your own opinions on actual peer reviewed science?

There not opinions my friend there either actual empirical data that has been observed in the real world.

Or there estimates from physics other than computer simulated models including past physical data that has been observed in the real world.

Quote:

mproved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950–2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage5, 6, 7 and applying recent corrections8 to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations9. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961–2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993–2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors8, 9, 10. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 ± 0.4 mm yr-1, in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies6, 7) of 1.6 ± 0.2 mm yr-1.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v453/n7198/full/nature07080.html

So your asking me to put my faith in a computer simulated model that had data feed into it from a faulty piece of equipment which was late adjusted to suit real world observations.

Thats precisly what i have been argueing against, that these computer simulated models cannot replicate the real world without the operators fixing parametric boundaries and then adjusting them to suit there hypothesis.

Quote:

The oceans are warming.
This is why sea levels are rising.

3000 buoys in the ocean have collected observed data in the real world by diving down to depths of 2000 metres and recording the oceans temperature.

They say there is no warming.

Quote:

If the oceans were not warming - why would sea levels be rising?

How much have sea levels risen, from memory in one of your last posts i think it said 50mm (2"), that could be the error margin right there dont you think.

No measurement is worth the paper its written on without some sort of error margin.

I repeat today we have some of the lowest temperatures and CO2 levels in our atmosphere since our history began and you're going to tell me that we should be taxed on the air we breath because both have risen alittle....?

Quote:

Do you have some "evidence" by a children's TV presenter or Daily Mail columnist to tell us that sea levels are not rising?

So what they have gone up 50mm(2") thats probably less than the error margin for the reading.

Have a look here champ
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1375838504

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And we are still waiting for you to answer:
Why has global glacial mass balance continued to decrease

Because the forrests and jungles at the foothill of the mountains has been turned into A4 paper.

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if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
Why has the arctic ice cap continued to melt if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

Natural cycle of the Earth, its happened before and it will happen again, nothing new, greenland was once farmed, what happened to the glaciers then....??????

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And, why has sea level continued to rise if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

SEE ABOVE....................

Quote:

Any answers yet?

I got plenty just keep asking.....1

Quote:

Or will you just continue to quote nonsense from denier blogs and tabloid newspaper columnists and pretend that decades of accumulated scientific evidence simply don't exist?

And computer simulated models are full of logic are they, sh!t in sh!t out computers are the dumbest pieces of equipment man has created, they will crunch any numbers whether it makes sense or NO.

Quote:

And why do you continually repeat the lie:
the IPCC have admitted that there has been no warming since 1998?
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1366374129/47#47

Its not a lie, if its not warming and the teperature is falling what else can it be?

Stalling....???????

I dont know what you see in the graph below, but i see cooling.

Quote:

We are waiting....

So am I.

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #5 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 7:48pm

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:35pm:

...
There not opinions my friend there ...

I presume you mean "they're". Given your grammatical ineptitude, I deduce that you're uneducated.

For mine, I'm neither foolish enough to think that I know better than the vast majority of scientist who are best qualified in climate science nor dishonest enough to pretend that I am. Which are you?

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rabbitoh07

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #6 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 8:45pm

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:35pm:

rabbitoh07 wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:05pm:

Yes - I am sure you can find all sorts of wacky "opinions" on those blogs you read.

But don't you think it would be better to form your own opinions on actual peer reviewed science?

There not opinions my friend there either actual empirical data that has been observed in the real world.

No they are not. Don't be silly

If they was "actual empirical data that has been observed in the real world" - you would be quoting from the scientific literature.

Not from silly blogs or the websites of Children's TV presenters.

BTW - we are still waiting for you to explain why you have been telling lies. You said that the IPCC claimed there has been "no warming for 15 years".

They didn't. You told a lie.

Don't yo think you should apologise for lying to the forum?

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BatteriesNotIncluded

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #7 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 8:46pm

# wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 7:48pm:

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:35pm:

...
There not opinions my friend there ...

Ajax loves Daddy and his cigarette breath and that's all that matters...

*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) *

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rabbitoh07

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #8 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 8:48pm

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 6:35pm:

http://i46.tinypic.com/2055ve8.png[/IMG]

What is that a graph of?

Could you give us some units?
Tull us what it is a graph of?
Where the data came from?
Any hints at all?

I am guessing it is a graph of temperature anomaly.
ANd it shows over a decade of positive anomaly.

That certainly doesn't show "cooling"

Over a decade of positive temperature anomaly!!!! How does that show "cooling"

You don't actually know what "temperature anomaly" means - do you.

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rabbitoh07

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #9 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 8:50pm

And we are still waiting for you to answer:

Why has global glacial mass balance continued to decrease if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
Why has the arctic ice cap continued to melt if there has been no warming since the year 1998?
And, why has sea level continued to rise if there has been no warming since the year 1998?

ANy answers?

Or just more running away?

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #10 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:07pm

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-stopped-in-1998.htm
For global records, 2010 is the hottest year on record, tied with 2005.

Even if we ignore long term trends and just look at the record-breakers, that wasn't the hottest year ever. Different reports show that, overall, 2005 was hotter than 1998. What's more, globally, the hottest 12-month period ever recorded was from June 2009 to May 2010.

Though humans love record-breakers, they don't, on their own, tell us a much about trends -- and it's trends that matter when monitoring Climate Change. Trends only appear by looking at all the data, globally, and taking into account other variables -- like the effects of the El Nino ocean current or sunspot activity -- not by cherry-picking single points.

There's also a tendency for some people just to concentrate on air temperatures when there are other, more useful, indicators that can perhaps give us a better idea how rapidly the world is warming. Oceans for instance -- due to their immense size and heat storing capability (called 'thermal mass') -- tend to give a much more 'steady' indication of the warming that is happening. Here records show that the Earth has been warming at a steady rate before and since 1998 and there's no signs of it slowing any time soon.

Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC) increase (light blue), 700-2,000 meter OHC increase (dark blue). From Nuccitelli et al. (2012).

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #11 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:17pm

Ajax wrote on Aug 7^th, 2013 at 12:19pm:

... all know that temperatures fell between 1940 and 1970 which sparked these very same clowns into action about global cooling and an ice age.
...

Of course, you can link to validation of that assertion. You can, can't you?

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm
The vast majority of climate papers in the 1970s predicted warming.

In the thirty years leading up to the 1970s, available temperature recordings suggested that there was a cooling trend. As a result some scientists suggested that the current inter-glacial period could rapidly draw to a close, which might result in the Earth plunging into a new ice age over the next few centuries. This idea could have been reinforced by the knowledge that the smog that climatologists call ‘aerosols’ – emitted by human activities into the atmosphere – also caused cooling. In fact, as temperature recording has improved in coverage, it’s become apparent that the cooling trend was most pronounced in northern land areas and that global temperature trends were in fact relatively steady during the period prior to 1970.

At the same time as some scientists were suggesting we might be facing another ice age, a greater number published contradicting studies. Their papers showed that the growing amount of greenhouse gasses that humans were putting into the atmosphere would cause much greater warming – warming that would a much greater influence on global temperature than any possible natural or human-caused cooling effects.

By 1980 the predictions about ice ages had ceased, due to the overwhelming evidence contained in an increasing number of reports that warned of global warming. Unfortunately, the small number of predictions of an ice age appeared to be much more interesting than those of global warming, so it was those sensational 'Ice Age' stories in the press that so many people tend to remember.

The fact is that around 1970 there were 6 times as many scientists predicting a warming rather than a cooling planet. Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #12 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:22pm

# wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:17pm:

Today, with 30+years more data to analyse, we've reached a clear scientific consensus: 97% of working climate scientists agree with the view that human beings are causing global warming.

Scientific consensus is not a scientific argument.

It's not even part of the scientific method.

And, what do climate scientists say about consensus ...

“..scientific issues cannot be decided by a vote of scientists. A consensus is not, at any given time, a good predictor of where the truth actually resides..”

Hmmm.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/what-else-did-the-97-of-scientists-say/

What else you got?

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #13 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:30pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:22pm:

...
Scientific consensus is not a scientific argument.

It's not even part of the scientific method.
...

Are you saying that active scientists are ignorant of scientific method?
greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:22pm:

...
What else you got?

Are you trolling? Again.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #14 - Aug 8^th, 2013 at 11:21pm

# wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:30pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 8^th, 2013 at 9:22pm:

...
Scientific consensus is not a scientific argument.

It's not even part of the scientific method.
...

Are you saying that active scientists are ignorant of scientific method?

No, I'm saying "Scientific consensus is not a scientific argument."

Care to argue that point, or would you rather ignore it ... again?

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