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There has been no warming since the year 1998 (Read 15684 times)
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #75 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 1:54pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 1:18pm:
...
I thought water vapour was negative feedback?
Water vapour creates clouds which are white & reflect sunlight.

I'm far from expert, but I'll give it a go.

Water vapour is a greenhouse gas. Most of what's in the atmosphere isn't cold enough to condense and therefore can't form clouds.

That's what the so-called Venus scenario is all about:
  • we reach a point at which evaporation exceeds precipitation;
  • water vapour being a greenhouse gas, we trigger a feedback loop;
  • eventually, all of the surface water is in the atmosphere.

With so much greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, temperatures at the surface rise to around 200 degrees Celsius. Somewhere in there, humanity's extinct along with the rest of life on the surface.

The scenario was modelled by Carl Sagan back in (iirc) the 1970s, using Venus as a model. It's thought that Venus once had oceans, much like Earth. Most of the water's still there, but it isn't liquid.

As Stephen Hawking said:
Quote:
We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with  a temperature of 250 degrees C and rain sulphuric acid. The human race could not survive in those conditions.


If you're interested, there's more at:
http://350orbust.com/2010/07/23/carl-sagan-and-stephen-hawking-on-effects-of-glo...

The part I find really interesting is what happens after that:
  • water vapour that circulates into the upper atmosphere is exposed to solar radiation;
  • the molecules break down into hydrogen and hydroxyl ions;
  • the hydrogen tends to escape into space;
  • the hydroxyl ions combine with other elements in the atmosphere to form acidic compounds;
  • after a few hundred millennia, there's very little molecular water left;
  • the increasingly dry atmosphere absorbs water from the planet itself;
  • the planet is sucked dry;
  • nothing that we might recognise as life survives.

    The thing I find strange is the effect that environment has on the very substance of the planet. Without water, for example, rocks are much harder.
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muso
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #76 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:23pm
 
Bobby. wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 1:18pm:
Muso,
I thought water vapour was negative feedback?
Water vapour creates clouds which are white & reflect sunlight.


It's not quite that simple. cloud albedo is part of the equation, and cloud feedbacks can be positive or negative. In addition to clouds, the water vapour in the atmosphere is in itself a greenhouse gas. It absorbs Longwave infrared radiation coming from the Earth and re-emits it in many different directions. That water vapour is not visible, but its concentration varies according to temperature. 

That's a short answer. I'll try to give a more detailed explanation later if you need one.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #77 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm
 
# wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 1:54pm:
Bobby. wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 1:18pm:
...
I thought water vapour was negative feedback?
Water vapour creates clouds which are white & reflect sunlight.

I'm far from expert, but I'll give it a go.

Water vapour is a greenhouse gas. Most of what's in the atmosphere isn't cold enough to condense and therefore can't form clouds.

That's what the so-called Venus scenario is all about:
  • we reach a point at which evaporation exceeds precipitation;
  • water vapour being a greenhouse gas, we trigger a feedback loop;
  • eventually, all of the surface water is in the atmosphere.

With so much greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, temperatures at the surface rise to around 200 degrees Celsius. Somewhere in there, humanity's extinct along with the rest of life on the surface.

The scenario was modelled by Carl Sagan back in (iirc) the 1970s, using Venus as a model. It's thought that Venus once had oceans, much like Earth. Most of the water's still there, but it isn't liquid.

As Stephen Hawking said:
Quote:
We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with  a temperature of 250 degrees C and rain sulphuric acid. The human race could not survive in those conditions.


If you're interested, there's more at:
http://350orbust.com/2010/07/23/carl-sagan-and-stephen-hawking-on-effects-of-glo...

The part I find really interesting is what happens after that:
  • water vapour that circulates into the upper atmosphere is exposed to solar radiation;
  • the molecules break down into hydrogen and hydroxyl ions;
  • the hydrogen tends to escape into space;
  • the hydroxyl ions combine with other elements in the atmosphere to form acidic compounds;
  • after a few hundred millennia, there's very little molecular water left;
  • the increasingly dry atmosphere absorbs water from the planet itself;
  • the planet is sucked dry;
  • nothing that we might recognise as life survives.

    The thing I find strange is the effect that environment has on the very substance of the planet. Without water, for example, rocks are much harder.


Did you mean this Carl Saga
n...

And in 1985 he even got Carl Sagan involved, misleading people into thinking that the world would be 9 deg F hotter in merely 15 years.

“Few scientists now dispute that today’s soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere will cause global temperature averages to rise by as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit sometime after the year 2000, Sagan said.” Robert Engleman, “Fossil Fuels Bring Trouble,” The Vindicator, Dec 12, 1985, p. 59
source

Only idiots would doubt what Carl has pontificated here. Approximately 4.5 Deg C warming in 15 years. How could we doubt? It WAS the consensus and consensus is the all in all of scientific knowledge. If everyone believes something wrong, it is bound to be true. Isn't that correct? That is what the eco-wacko global warming folks want you to believe.


Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

At least this Carl Sagan isn't making fraudulent eco-doomsday predictions with his ol' mate Jimmy Hansen anymore. Lucky for us google isn't dead and can remind us all of the claptrap these tax payer funded frauds are pumping out  Grin Grin

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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #78 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:48pm
 
muso wrote on Aug 10th, 2013 at 9:54pm:
Rider wrote on Aug 10th, 2013 at 12:45pm:
Wheels fall of the global warming bullsh1t bus again.....when will the cultists work out they are being dudded??

Pretty good read this, I fully expect bunny and hash to see it as a shining example of warming......that is to be expected.

http://notrickszone.com/2013/08/09/major-danish-daily-warns-globe-may-be-on-path-to-little-ice-age-much-colder-winters-dramatic-consequences/

Major Danish Daily Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!

By P Gosselin on 9. August 2013


JP_1Another major European media outlet is asking: Where’s the global warming?

Image right: The August 7 edition of Denmark’s Jyllands-Posten, featured a major 2-page article on the globe’s 15-years of missing warming and the potential solar causes and implications.



Why are you talking about newspaper articles and blog entries?

I take it that you have no peer reviewed research to refer to, so you resort to desperation?
Quote:
Major Danish Daily Warns


Opinions - They are all different, everybody's got one, and they all stink.


Oh, I didn't realise you were the 'source' police. Didn't like the message aye?
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #79 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:54pm
 
# wrote on Aug 10th, 2013 at 9:33pm:
In Case anybody's wondering, notrickszone.com is yet another climate science denial site. Pierre Gosling seems the be an American with a Bachelor of Science living in Germany. The site basically rehashes fantasies from other denial sites.

The site is so low in the hierarchy that it barely registers. Here's one remark I found that mentions it http://watchingthedeniers.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/qa-be-an-honorable-ancestor-a...:
"The tricks of No Tricks Zone
You don’t have to be a scientist to see that most of the so-called climate skepticism out there is complete bollocks. Step up to the plate Pierre Gosselin in Germany who writes the ironically titled “No Tricks Zone” .

Take this. Amospheric changes on all 9 planets explains the cause of global warming as “the sun, stupid” . A real skeptic would doubt any conclusion that is so forthright but Pierre expresses no doubts whatsoever and if you don’t agree you’re stupid. But what evidence is there that warming on other planets and the Earth share the same cause? Pierre offers none . He has arrived at his explanation for global warming on the Earth by … looking at completely different planets. Unfortunately none of those other bodies in the solar system support life, a point that I have made to P but it seems to have gone past him.

A few days later Pierre’s headline is “NOAA Data Shows Slowing Sea Level Rise”. Pierre sorts the results of a selection of coastal stations around the globe into four categories which he calls ‘observed most recent rate trend’. Although he claims six stations show a ‘steady drop’ three of those (Karachi, Walvis Bay and Tenerife) actually record numerical rises in sea level. So how does Pierre arrive at his ‘observed most recent rate trend’? I ask if it’s simply Pierre’s opinion of the most recent direction of the line on the graph perhaps. “It was arrived at by looking at the data” is P’s cryptic response. He then suggests “your time would be better spent if you asked [Stefan] Rahmstorf at the PIK how they reached their conclusions of accelerating SLR. ” Quite."

Of course, to a dedicated denier, it's all Gospel.  Roll Eyes


And yet you quote Skepticalscience and some wacko 350something (no doubt throwing some eco panic about 350ppm of harmless plant food in the atmosphere  Grin)..

Oh, hows that co2 going now, nearly at 400ppm, and still no runaway temperatures.....no haywire feedback loops?? how about some sea level rises....still nothing yet....do you reckon they'll get the rainfall predictions right for Wednesday??? More ice in Antarctic ... Arctic returning to freezing a month early....
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #80 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:07pm
 
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:54pm:
# wrote on Aug 10th, 2013 at 9:33pm:
...
Of course, to a dedicated denier, it's all Gospel.  Roll Eyes

...
Oh, hows that co2 going now, ...

As I said: "to a dedicated denier"...  Roll Eyes
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #81 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:13pm
 
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm:
...
Did you mean this Carl Saga[size=12]n...[b]
...

I mean the Carl Sagan who died last century, but remains one of the best minds we've ever had on the dynamics of global atmospheres. And the one you ignored: Stephen Hawking, who remains one of the best minds on the planet.

Rider, you're well out of your league.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #82 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:22pm
 
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm:
Did you mean this Carl Saga
n...

And in 1985 he even got Carl Sagan involved, misleading people into thinking that the world would be 9 deg F hotter in merely 15 years.

“Few scientists now dispute that today’s soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere will cause global temperature averages to rise by as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit sometime after the year 2000, Sagan said.” Robert Engleman, “Fossil Fuels Bring Trouble,” The Vindicator, Dec 12, 1985, p. 59
source

Only idiots would doubt what Carl has pontificated here. Approximately 4.5 Deg C warming in 15 years. How could we doubt? It WAS the consensus and consensus is the all in all of scientific knowledge. If everyone believes something wrong, it is bound to be true. Isn't that correct? That is what the eco-wacko global warming folks want you to believe.


Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

At least this Carl Sagan isn't making fraudulent eco-doomsday predictions with his ol' mate Jimmy Hansen anymore. Lucky for us google isn't dead and can remind us all of the claptrap these tax payer funded frauds are pumping out  Grin Grin



So using that logic, if you give me a $100 note (something more than $50) for something that costs $40, you'd be happy with just $10 change.

I have this bridge for sale. It's very big and it looks like a massive coat hanger............
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #83 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:33pm
 
muso wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:22pm:
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm:
Did you mean this Carl Saga
n...

And in 1985 he even got Carl Sagan involved, misleading people into thinking that the world would be 9 deg F hotter in merely 15 years.

“Few scientists now dispute that today’s soaring levels of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere will cause global temperature averages to rise by as much as nine degrees Fahrenheit sometime after the year 2000, Sagan said.” Robert Engleman, “Fossil Fuels Bring Trouble,” The Vindicator, Dec 12, 1985, p. 59
source

Only idiots would doubt what Carl has pontificated here. Approximately 4.5 Deg C warming in 15 years. How could we doubt? It WAS the consensus and consensus is the all in all of scientific knowledge. If everyone believes something wrong, it is bound to be true. Isn't that correct? That is what the eco-wacko global warming folks want you to believe.


Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin

At least this Carl Sagan isn't making fraudulent eco-doomsday predictions with his ol' mate Jimmy Hansen anymore. Lucky for us google isn't dead and can remind us all of the claptrap these tax payer funded frauds are pumping out  Grin Grin



So using that logic, if you give me a $100 note (something more than $50) for something that costs $40, you'd be happy with just $10 change.

I have this bridge for sale. It's very big and it looks like a massive coat hanger............


no, I'm not selling bs and i'm definitely not buying it.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #84 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:37pm
 
# wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:13pm:
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm:
...
Did you mean this Carl Saga[size=12]n...[b]
...

I mean the Carl Sagan who died last century, but remains one of the best minds we've ever had on the dynamics of global atmospheres. And the one you ignored: Stephen Hawking, who remains one of the best minds on the planet.

Rider, you're well out of your league.


what, 1996... Another circular argument of bs.  It must sh1t you that I have a vote as well. Bad luck.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #85 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:37pm
 
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:48pm:
Oh, I didn't realise you were the 'source' police. Didn't like the message aye?


I'm just amused that you confuse peer reviewed scientific papers with newspaper articles. 

Here are a couple of examples to help you understand the difference:

Quote:
International Journal of Spectroscopy
Volume 2013 (2013), Article ID 690186, 8 pages

Article: Carbon Dioxide Capture from Ambient Air Using Amine-Grafted Mesoporous Adsorbents

Annemarie Wagner,1 Bengt Steen,2 Göran Johansson,3 Ezio Zanghellini,1 Per Jacobsson,1 and Patrik Johansson1

1 Department of Applied Physics, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Göteborg,  Sweden
2 Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, 412 96 Göteborg,  Sweden
3ETC Battery and FuelCells Sweden AB, 449 44 Nödinge Nol,  SwedenReceived 26 February 2013; Accepted 31 March 2013Academic Editor: Rolf W. Berg Copyright © 2013 Annemarie Wagner et al.

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) have been identified as a major contributor to climate change. An attractive approach to tackle the increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere is direct extraction via absorption of CO2 from ambient air, to be subsequently desorbed and processed under controlled conditions. The feasibility of this approach depends on the sorbent material that should combine a long lifetime with nontoxicity, high selectivity for CO2, and favorable thermodynamic cycling properties. Adsorbents based on pore-expanded mesoporous silica grafted with amines have previously been found to combine high CO2 adsorption capacity at low partial pressures with operational stability under highly defined laboratory conditions..............


That was from a peer reviewed scientific paper.

Quote:
Qantas flying boats: Was air travel more fun in the 1930s?

    KATE SCHNEIDER, TRAVEL EDITOR
    news.com.au
    August 10, 2013 6:48PM

SEVENTY five years ago, there was great excitement when Qantas launched its first Short Empire Flying Boat service between Rose Bay and Singapore.

In what's a bizarre sight to today's flyers, passengers climbed the wings of the plane and stood on top, as the aircraft sat in the water.

How things have changed 


That was from a newspaper article designed for a reading age index of 12. Notice the difference?
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #86 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 9:21pm
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 11:52am:
For warming to occur temperatures should increase incrementally each year.

Oh dear.  Silly strawman time.

THere is more to global warming than the average surface temperature.

The oceans are warming.
Glaciers are melting
The arctic is melting.
Sea levels are rising.

The planet is warming.

Even if there did happen to be a particularly warm average global surface temperature according to one dataset (- others say 2010 or 2005 was warmer) in 1998.

Your Daily Mail columnist is wrong. The planet is warming. Even in the past 15 years.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #87 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 9:24pm
 
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:37pm:
# wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 8:13pm:
Rider wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 7:45pm:
...
Did you mean this Carl Saga[size=12]n...[b]
...

I mean the Carl Sagan who died last century, but remains one of the best minds we've ever had on the dynamics of global atmospheres. And the one you ignored: Stephen Hawking, who remains one of the best minds on the planet.

Rider, you're well out of your league.


what, 1996... Another circular argument of bs.  It must sh1t you that I have a vote as well. Bad luck.

Now, now. How you vote doesn't interest me. Pointing out your inadequacies, so innocent bystanders are less likely to be deceived, does. And don't you give me a lot to point out?

Inferior minds like yours will always make fools of themselves. Not that I claim superiority; all I need to do is quote the superior.
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #88 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 9:25pm
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 12:41pm:
muso wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 12:13pm:
Strawman number 1.  Utter rot. Nobody is saying that.  There is short term natural variation due to solar cycles and the Southern Oscillation index etc. Of course it doesn't matter how many times denialists are told these things, they latch on to the same "temperatures must increase incrementally each year"  fallacy.


The sun's activities and the temperature of the Earth correlate quite nicely thank you very much.

Not really..

If the warming we are experiencing over recent decades - and especially in the past 15 years, as oceans have continued to warm, glaciers have continued to melt, the arctic has continued to melt and sea levels have continued to rise - wre due only to solar activity - then we would expect all of the atmosphere to warm, wouldn't we?

Why is the stratosphere cooling?
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Re: There has been no warming since the year 1998
Reply #89 - Aug 11th, 2013 at 9:59pm
 
Ajax wrote on Aug 11th, 2013 at 12:41pm:
The sun's activities and the temperature of the Earth correlate quite nicely thank you very much.


Actually they don't. False premise alert.


http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/solact.html

Quote:
The measured solar activity is well-correlated with the observed temperature variations, but does not follow the recent upturn in temperature as the originally published plot indicated.



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