Australian Politics Forum - NBN FIASCO In Action

Life_goes_on

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #45 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 11:17am

One technology which currently exists that requires a high speed connection is UHD TV.

Who knows what else is around the corner?

Had you suggested twenty years ago that households would want to have network connections as high as even 1mbs, most industry experts would have laughed at you because those kind of speeds were unavailable - even to those corporations who used dedicated lines.

To claim that current speeds are all that we will ever need is at best stupid.

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Life_goes_on

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #46 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 11:30am

Personally, I'd be happy with FTTN.
If I require fibre to my home then I'll cough up for the connection - or move.

But.... be aware that the maintenance and upkeep of a FTTN system is actually higher than a FTTP configuration (way way more pits - powering those pits - way more hardware).

What you save on initial installation costs you end up spending on upkeep.

It'll be a third world setup long before a FTTP config is.

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #47 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:23pm

http://www.itnews.com.au/News/353616,turnbulls-nbn-policy-detailed-enough-to-esc...
Turnbull's NBN policy 'detailed enough' to escape costing

Sees no value-add from independent financial analysis.

Quote:

Opposition Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull believes the Coalition's NBN plan is detailed enough to warrant not pushing further for an independent assessment of costings and assumptions.

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #48 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:28pm

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:59am:

[quote author=longweekend58 link=1376533454/40#40 date=1376608932]
A) you still have provided not a single application that needs more than what we currently have nevermind FTTN with 100Mbps
You have no vision! 1 user watching youtube, 1 user streaming 4k video, 1 user playing xbox 360 and 1 user downloading a movie - not hard to fathom how we could use these speeds. A sdd can write at 300mbps, if you max your connection it still won't reach these speeds. It's not just about home usage either!
B) 100Mbps was okay last year so why not this year
Can you get 100mbps on copper everywhere? Unless you have copper pairs (most houses in Australia don't!) and put a car size box ever 100m, copper won't get anywhere near this speed. While the world record for fibre is 126 pettabits a second!
C) copper was supposed to be incapable of more than 33kbps until we found it could do better and now it is 100Mbps. The idea that something 'cant be done' in electronics is rather passé. processor speeds and PCB track widths were supposed to have reached physical limits and yet they haven't. HHD capacities were suppose to have reached maximum limts long ago and yet haven't
Fibre can reach 126 pettabits a second (and climbing!) Copper has reached it's limit @ 1 gigabit (that's if you have new copper and operate at a range of 50m!)
D) FTTN is much cheaper
Is it? Taking into account the extra maintenance, electricity and the cost of the copper, it actually costs as much or more!
E) FTTN will be complete far faster and with the NBNs current record of delivery, probably 10 years faster
"Probably 10 years faster" BZZZZZZ WRONG!!!!!! It will be completed 2 years earlier but won't solve the issues with degraded copper.
F) how does 'no substantial benefit' apply to a network that offers 10 times current bandwidth and identical to the bandwidth of the NBN from only a year ago?
Can I have some of what your taking? The nbn is capable of much faster speeds - all you need to do is upgrade the electronics at either end. Copper isn't capable of this
G) and FTTN still provides the capacity for full FTTP if needed by simply running the fibre last segment. So if you need it, you can get it but yes, you will have to pay for it. Businesses who need it wont hesitate and residences that need it likewise. Those that simply WANT it rather than need it might not be so comfortable
It's not that easy. You have to replace all of the electronics and you've wasted billions (up to 10 billion) on those car sized cabinets.
H) FTTN becomes FTTP at a later point if deemed necessary and much of the work is already done.
Fibre-to-the-node was not a stepping stone to ﬁbre-to-the-premise. In fact, if anything it would put it backwards. ”

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/04/30/fttn-a-huge-mistake-says-ex-bt-cto/

news One of the UK’s foremost telecommunications experts, a former chief technology officer of British telco BT, has publicly stated that fibre to the node-style broadband is “one of the biggest mistakes humanity has made”, imposing huge bandwidth and unreliability problems on those who implement it, as the Coalition may do in Australia.

http://delimiter.com.au/2012/08/24/fibre-to-the-home-the-preferred-option-says-nz/

news New Zealand’s conservative party technology minister has hailed fibre to the home as the preferred option for national telecommunications infrastructure, stating during a visit to Australia this week that it made better “fiscal sense” to deploy fibre all the way to the premise where possible, instead of only to neighbourhood ‘nodes’ as Australia’s Coalition is proposing.

http://delimiter.com.au/2013/05/20/is-fttn-vectoring-just-a-pipe-dream/

Vectoring is a technique applied to copper ADSL networks which aims to significantly increase the speeds attainable on such networks. According to Wikipedia, the technique is based on the principle of noise cancellation on an ADSL line. Over the past several years, Turnbull has mentioned vectoring several times as a possible technology to help deliver the Coalition’s FTTN-based NBN rollout. Here’s the Liberal MP on launch day in April for the Coalition’s NBN policy:

More recently, some pro-FTTP commentators have been examining the vectoring situation more closely. Local IT pro Kieran Cummings, for example, wrote last week, in a provocatively titled post named headed “Why You’ll Never Get Vectoring”:

services due to consumer backlash over lacklustre speeds. When looking at the [Deutsche Telekom] example, they are well aware the end-game is fibre, and that end-game is near with DT estimating less than 30 years before their copper network will be decommissioned.”

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-06-23/telstras-copper-network-in-a-state-of-disrepair-say-unions/4774342

Unions have told the ABC that Telstra's copper network is in a state of disrepair, with workers at the coalface of the infrastructure using plastic bags to protect cables from water.

The telecommunications pits have been nicknamed 'bag-dad' by contractors because of the plastic bags, that are in theory supposed to keep the water out.

BIGGEST ERROR HUMANITY HAS EVER MADE????

well there goes his credibility right out the window! That opening line just destroys the credibility of anything he has to say.

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #49 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:33pm

# wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 10:01am:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

# wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:14am:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 8:56am:

# wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 8:17am:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 4:52pm:

... What will you do with 100Mbps ...?

We have telegram delivery boys - on bicycles! What would we do with your telly-o-phone?

Seriously though, what do you believe will halt the observed rise in demand for bandwidth?

... you have also been unable to give me a single need that requires this bandwith ...

As you have been unable to point to what will halt the rise in demand.

The issue is not tomorrow; it's what's the best investment for the foreseeable future. The Coalition wants to spend $29 billion for no substantial benefit. Their plan relies on Telstra giving cost-free access to their monopoly copper. It relies on that aged copper yielding performance achieved to date only on new copper. It relies on establishing nodes within 400 metres of every premises. It relies on average demand at each node not rising above 100 Mb/s.
...

...
B) 100Mbps was okay last year so why not this year

So you're saying that the rise in demand has stopped. What stopped it?

Im not saying that. try reading what I write.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

C) copper was supposed to be incapable of more than 33kbps until we found it could do better and now it is 100Mbps. ...

You imply that copper can match fibre. The last time I had anything to do with the industry, fibre had hit 1.6 terrabits per second on commercially affordable hardware. That was the early 2000s. No

I imply that copper can match what we currently NEED. there is a big difference.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

D) FTTN is much cheaper

Depending on assumptions and timeframe. On the published estimates, the Coalition might save a little now, but foreseeable costs in the near future are vastly higher.

Well, no. it is as much as $30B cheaper given that the NBN costs are grossly understated and the rest of this 'future costs' are essentially imagined.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

E) FTTN will be complete far faster and with the NBNs current record of delivery, probably 10 years faster

Assertion with no evidence. No evidence?

You mean apart from the fact that you are the only person to dispute that that FTTN will be completed a lot faster? The job is only half as big so that alone should prove the point but feel free to provide an actual argument to dispute that a job half the size will take as long as the full-size one.

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

G) and FTTN still provides the capacity for full FTTP if needed by simply running the fibre last segment. So if you need it, you can get it but yes, you will have to pay for it. Businesses who need it wont hesitate and residences that need it likewise. Those that simply WANT it rather than need it might not be so comfortable
H) FTTN becomes FTTP at a later point if deemed necessary and much of the work is already done.

There, I guess lies the core of the problem. Labor wants to do it well. The Coalition wants to do it cheap; their "if you need it, then pay for it" model is no more than taxation by stealth. The individual or corporate taxpayer pays for public infrastructure, which the government plans to sell.

The greatest costs lie in getting workers and equipment on site. That's why doing it well first time is far cheaper, in the medium term. The total project cost of the Coalition plan is far higher, unless you limit your perspective to the very shortest term.

Getting the workers and equipment back will impose monumental costs on the nation, bearing in mind that it will need to be done millions of times. If you object to "millions of times"; how many premises are there in Australia?

That, I guess, is the issue. The election is in the short term. The costs will come later.

Let's not forget that, at first, Labor wanted to do it cheap. That's when the Coalition branded Fibre to the Node "fraudband". Sol Trujillo got in the way, so Labor came up with Fibre to the Premises as a way around Telstra's monopoly. The fact that it also addresses the "last mile" problem that dogs every first world telecommunications network is just a happy coincidence.

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #50 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:37pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 9:22am:

G) and FTTN still provides the capacity for full FTTP if needed by simply running the fibre last segment. So if you need it, you can get it but yes, you will have to pay for it. Businesses who need it wont hesitate and residences that need it likewise. Those that simply WANT it rather than need it might not be so comfortable
H) FTTN becomes FTTP at a later point if deemed necessary and much of the work is already done.

There, I guess lies the core of the problem. Labor wants to do it well. The Coalition wants to do it cheap; their "if you need it, then pay for it" model is no more than taxation by stealth. The individual or corporate taxpayer pays for public infrastructure, which the government plans to sell.

The greatest costs lie in getting workers and equipment on site. That's why doing it well first time is far cheaper, in the medium term. The total project cost of the Coalition plan is far higher, unless you limit your perspective to the very shortest term.

Getting the workers and equipment back will impose monumental costs on the nation, bearing in mind that it will need to be done millions of times. If you object to "millions of times"; how many premises are there in Australia?

That, I guess, is the issue. The election is in the short term. The costs will come later.

Let's not forget that, at first, Labor wanted to do it cheap. That's when the Coalition branded Fibre to the Node "fraudband". Sol Trujillo got in the way, so Labor came up with Fibre to the Premises as a way around Telstra's monopoly. The fact that it also addresses the "last mile" problem that dogs every first world telecommunications network is just a happy coincidence. [/quote]

Labor wants to do it well??? that would be a first! AS mentioned before (with no reply) a broadband network that is super-fast, super-expensive is of no value if it is not actually used or needed. So how about you put up an actual CASE for a 1Gbps NBN. I suggest you go back to the old arguments you used for the 100Mbps NBN that is now not good enough because the coalition can provide that twice as quickly and at half the cost.

This is the actual cruz of the issue: WHY?

you have not produced a single credible argument to support the NBN. The failure to do so is the single biggest weakness and a fatal flaw.

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #51 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:39pm

Life_goes_on wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 11:09am:

There was never a belief that copper was incapable of more than 33k.
Copper cables quite happily handle speeds measured in Gb/s - but only for distances measured in cm or at best metres - not kilometres.

With dialup technology, the limit has been reached because of the requirement that the signal negotiate switches and multiple copper runs of unknown length as it travels between modems.

The limitation has always been the trade off between throughput and distance over copper.

and get VDSL gets 100Mbs. the point is that supposed limits in most technological areas are routinely overcome. Believing that the copper line from the node to the house is fundamentally limited to X speed is naïve.

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Life_goes_on Gold Member Offline Posts: 4772 400kms south of Yobsville, Qld Gender:	Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT ! Reply #52 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:46pm I didn't say a limit has been reached. I said there's a trade off between throughput and distance. Yes... VDSL can achieve speeds of 100Mps - but at what distances? I believe it's up to about 1km for those kind of speeds. Exactly how many pits and boxes do you want out there? One on every block?
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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #53 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 1:01pm

Life_goes_on wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:46pm:

I didn't say a limit has been reached. I said there's a trade off between throughput and distance.

Yes... VDSL can achieve speeds of 100Mps - but at what distances?
I believe it's up to about 1km for those kind of speeds.
Exactly how many pits and boxes do you want out there?
One on every block?

They are not much bigger than the current Telstra boxes out there. I don't see a problem with 100Mbps speeds with FTTN. it was the gold-standard as recently as a year ago but now because FTTN can achieve that the standard NOW has to be 1Gbps - a speed the NBN isn't even offereing?

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# Gold Member Offline A fool is certain: an ignorant fool, absolutely so Posts: 2603	Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT ! Reply #54 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 1:50pm longweekend58 wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:37pm: ... Labor wants to do it well???... Only by default. They started out wanting to do it as poorly as the Coalition now proposes, remember?
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Fit of Absent Mindeness

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #55 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:04pm

Life_goes_on wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 12:46pm:

I didn't say a limit has been reached. I said there's a trade off between throughput and distance.

Yes... VDSL can achieve speeds of 100Mps - but at what distances?
I believe it's up to about 1km for those kind of speeds.
Exactly how many pits and boxes do you want out there?
One on every block?

1KM????

http://nbnmyths.wordpress.com/why-not-fttn/

500m max and this with 2 good (not degraded!) copper pairs.

Do people honestly think this what the current network is like?

1. The NBN will cost taxpayers 50/70/90/100 billion dollars. We can’t afford it and it’s uncosted

False

The total capital cost of the NBN is budgeted at $37.4 billion dollars. Of that, the government investment is set at $30.4 billion. The remainder will come from revenue and NBN Co’s private debt. Unlike most Government expendiature though, the NBN is forecast to return all of the Government funds, plus interest, by 2034. It is forecast to begin repaying the Government funds in 2020.[1]

2. If it were viable, the private sector would build it

False

a. The private sector could not afford it. ~$37bn is a huge investment for any company, and well beyond any telco operating in Australia.

b. The private sector demand a ROI of at least 15%, because they need to earn a profit for their shareholders. The NBN has a projected 7% ROI[1]. While this is well below commercial rates, it’s quite acceptable for a Government, which is not seeking to earn a profit.

3. We will never need that much speed or data

False

This claim ignores the massive growth in average internet speeds that have occurred over the relatively short lifetime of the internet. As speeds continue to grow, new applications are quickly developed to take advantage of those new speeds. MP3 files and iPods, YouTube, Skype, HD video, Cloud storage. None of these applications were possible until sufficient bandwidth became available. The Cloud is probably the next Big Thing, but with current broadband speeds in Australia, we will be unable to take advantage of the opportunities it presents.

hhttp://nbnmyths.files.wordpress.com/2010/09/australian-internet-speeds.jpg

4. Noone else in the world is installing such a system

False

Fibre-To-The-Premises or Home (FTTP/H) is currently being rolled out in over fifty countries around the World, including New Zealand, Canada, the UK, Germany, Norway, France, Sweden, Kenya, Qatar, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and China.[5] Google have announced they are building a trial network to cover up to 500,000 homes in the USA,

5. Our internet speed is good enough

False

Australia has amongst the slowest available broadband speeds in the developed world. This is a huge impost to new technologies for business and education. Where FTTP is available, the cost is so high that only the largest businesses can afford it.

Australia’s average speed of just 1.7Mbps is less than 1/30th of the average speed available in Japan, and about 1/3 of the average speed in the USA.[10] Even the Slovak Republic and Turkey have faster average internet access than Australia! What a disgrace.

As FTTH networks are rolled out around the world, we

6. A Wireless (eg 4G, LTE, WiMax) or DSL (ADSL2+/VDSL/HDSL) network can provide the same speed for a fraction of the price

False

Much is claimed (usually by those with a vested interest) about the potential of wireless networks, with speeds such as 300Mbps being quoted. But this is highly deceptive, because those are peak speeds per cell site (ie per tower), not realistically achievable speeds for individuals. For example if the “300Mb” tower has just two users active, then speed is halved to 150Mbps. A trial of “4G/LTE” in 2009 showed that with just 20 people using any one tower, speed plummeted to just 7Mbps.[11] Distance, topography, buildings and weather also degrade available speeds. To put this in perspective, if only 2% of Australians wanted to be able to access even the slow 7Mbps speed at any one time, we would need to double the number of mobile phone towers across the country. For wireless to be an effective alternative to fibre, we would quite literally need a tower on every street corner.

7. People don’t want fixed internet, they only want mobile

False

The growth in this market is predominantly smartphones and handheld devices such as iPads. Mobile broadband is not making any inroads to high-volume home or business internet connections. Wireless’ high latency (lag) makes it unsuitable for gaming, video conferencing and VOIP just for a start. Average costs per MB are over 10 times higher than for fixed connections but only offer around ¼ of the speed, making them impractical and uneconomical for high-volume use

8. It will be too expensive to have an NBN connection

False

Skymesh have released NBN broadband pricing starting at $29.95 per month

Do i have to keep going?

I'm sick of having to debunk the same myths over and over!

Throw your playbook away!

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Fit of Absent Mindeness

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #56 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:08pm

Why not wireless?

Fibre Vs Wireless speeds

Fibre-Optics:

Commercially, fibre-optic cables are being used to carry data at speeds of about 2 Terabits per second (Tbps). Experimentally, trials are now achieving over 69Tbps over a single fibreoptic strand. (A Terabit is 1,000 Gigabits or 1,000,000 Megabits).

As it currently stands, fibreoptics are achieving speeds that are 250,000 times faster than wireless. In the experimental stages, fibre can carry 69,000 times more data than the entire bandwidth delivered by a wireless tower!

Below is a graphic showing the effect of distance, which is particularly important in a large country such as Australia:

The Spectrum Shortage

The biggest issue currently facing wireless data networks isn’t the obstructions. It’s another physical limitation: Radio Spectrum.

Every user added to a wireless network uses more radio spectrum. Every speed increase also uses more spectrum. For example, the 4G/LTE consortium reports that they can deliver a 300Mbps network using 20Mhz of spectrum per site. But delivering 1Gbps requires 100Mhz of spectrum per site (See page 12).

Mobile Towers

Even if the spectrum issue could be overcome, for wireless to deliver superfast broadband to all of Australia it would require a huge increase in the number of mobile phone towers, and we all know how popular they are!

Australia currently has about 10,000 mobile phone towers across the country. To build a 4G/LTE Advanced network that could achieve a similar level of performance to the fibre-optic NBN, we would need to build approximately 75,000 additional mobile phone towers (Assuming 10M premises, 1Gbps per cell, 6 cells per tower, delivering 100Mbps to 50% of premises simultaneously).

Of course, all of those towers would have to be connected using fibre-optic cable.

Isn’t the world going wireless?

There is a perception that everyone is changing to wireless, but they’re not. They are adding it. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the number of mobile broadband internet connections grew by ~40% in Australia between 2009 and 2010. But the total amount of data downloaded over the wireless networks actually fell, despite the greater numbers. Conversely, the amount being downloaded over fixed networks is still increasing by about 50% every year.

What about cost?

The other big issue preventing wireless networks replacing fixed ones is the enormous cost difference between the services, despite the vastly inferior performance.

For example, the largest wireless broadband plan on the Telstra NextG wireless network is 12GB of data for $89.95 per month, where Telstra quote speeds of “between 1.1 and 20Mbps in metropolitan areas, with lower speeds outside metro areas”. (see here) By contrast, on the NBN you can get 20GB of data for $29.95 per month, at a speed of 25Mbps. (see here) For another $9.95, you can add a phoneline with all local and national calls for free.

What about DIDO?

The ink was barely dry on the sketchy DIDO wireless white paper when the anti-NBN brigade began touting it as something which will imminently make the optical fibre of the NBN obsolete. So what is DIDO?

Well, right now it’s vapourware. There are no technical specifications, detailed explanations or independent tests of the technology, outside the self-published and extremely basic white paper linked to above.

Keep dreaming about your wireless utopia - unless we can bend the laws of physics, fibre is it for the near future!

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #57 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:18pm

and so when I ask what applications depend on this you come up with a list of ones we are already using quite fine right now on ADSL 2+ which is a 1/4 of the speed of the FTTN??

this is why Labor wouldn't do a CBA because C (Cost) was a guess B (benefit) was indefinable and A (analysis) is a non-speciality of labr

And you would have to be the only person on the planet that thinks the NBN will be brought in on time and within budget. it is already massively behind on schedule and the true budget figures wont be known until Sept 8

I am simply asking you to make a case for the NBN and you have manifestly failed to do so.

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #58 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:25pm

So where is the CBA and costings for the coalition alternative?

You can ask all you want, however they (and you) haven't even provided costings or a CBA for the alternative.

Could it be that they don't have a clue about telecommunications (who can forget the 2 luddites in charge previously).

Lets sell Telstra with the Copper - nothing could possibly go wrong!

Try being a web developer on an adsl connection having to upload 1gb of data or a database administrator or any multiple of other professions!

Is your dislike for the nbn because everyone get's great access to the internet.

It appears that conservative thinking means everyone can't possible have equal access to something.

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longweekend58

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Re: NBN FIASCO In Action - Check This OUT !
Reply #59 - Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:32pm

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Aug 16^th, 2013 at 3:25pm:

So where is the CBA and costings for the coalition alternative?

You can ask all you want, however they (and you) haven't even provided costings or a CBA for the alternative.

Could it be that they don't have a clue about telecommunications (who can forget the 2 luddites in charge previously).

Lets sell Telstra with the Copper - nothing could possibly go wrong!

Try being a web developer on an adsl connection having to upload 1gb of data or a database administrator or any multiple of other professions!

Is your dislike for the nbn because everyone get's great access to the internet.

It appears that conservative thinking means everyone can't possible have equal access to something.

I WAS A DATABASE developer for 30 years. I know what you are saying. But we aren't talking about that are we. we are talking about RESIDENCES. and with residences being 90% of the cost of the NBN you need to talk to me about the need for the RESIDENCES to have this speed. As a database developer I might pay for the extra fibre connection although with 50Mbps I probably wouldn't. But as a home owner wih a bit of email and web browsing I wouldn't bother.

so once again... give me examples of the RESIDENTIAL use of this speed and why we simply must have it right flaming now!!! Why is 50-100Mbps too slow for homes?

please please just answer this question with actual on-topic answers.

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