Australian Politics Forum - Labor will lose election by 22 seats

labor are corrupt Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1501	Labor will lose election by 22 seats Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:56pm reoprted in the afr today. Labor won’t have to stay up late on the evening of September 7 to get the bad news on its electoral result, according to a new analysis of betting market odds.
Back to top	The greens are poison. IP Logged

Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 107444 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #1 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:57pm Labor has no chance of winning. They might as well throw in the towel now.
Back to top	IP Logged

Fit of Absent Mindeness

Gold Member

Offline

We need more fits of absent
mindedness

Posts: 1622
Brisbane
Gender: male

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #2 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:10pm

I have no doubt the Coalition will win (it was an 80% certainty!) and is now 55-60%.

What will be entertaining is:

The hostile senate.
The economy and their black hole.
Their nbn.
Tony being compared with Dubya.
The opposition behaving like they did.

In 2-3 terms the Coalition will be on the nose and they'll be booted out.

The average margin (in terms of seats) at every election since 1949 is 22.

The longest stretch without a win was frp, 1983-1996 for the coalition (1949-196 for the alp).

A government always suffers a swing against them at their second election.

If the ALP lose the next election by 22 seats it's not going to be a surprise!

Back to top

Putting the n in cuts

IP Logged

labor are corrupt Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1501	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #3 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:13pm Bobby. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:57pm: Labor has no chance of winning. They might as well throw in the towel now. I look forward to the entire enquiry’s into union corruption and there outcomes.
Back to top	The greens are poison. IP Logged

True Colours Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2837 Gender:	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #4 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:15pm labor are corrupt wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:56pm: ...according to a new analysis of betting market odds. I was looking at the odds this morning, and thinking that they don't seem to have factored in all the Abbott gaffes over the past week.
Back to top	IP Logged

matty Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 11055 East Sydney Gender:	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #5 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:27pm Bobby. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:57pm: Labor has no chance of winning. They might as well throw in the towel now. But Bobby, you were telling us a few weeks ago that the Coalition had already lost.
Back to top	BILL SHORTEN WILL NEVER BE PM!!!! IP Logged

Karnal

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 96900

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #6 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 4:07pm

matty wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

Bobby. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:57pm:

Labor has no chance of winning.

They might as well throw in the towel now.

But Bobby, you were telling us a few weeks ago that the Coalition had already lost.

Yes, Matty, but without you in the driver's seat the Libs might as well throw in the towel.

Yes, Mr Abbott might get in, but to what end? That man's as good as a communist.

Whitey's even thinking of joining the Libs.

Thoughts?

Back to top

IP Logged

cods

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 88048

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #7 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 4:10pm

True Colours wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:15pm:

labor are corrupt wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:56pm:

...according to a new analysis of betting market odds.

I was looking at the odds this morning, and thinking that they don't seem to have factored in all the Abbott gaffes over the past week.

you mean... there are still a few out there that vote on someone saying.. sex appeal....OMG...I would have thought the

HIGHEST DEBT IN OUR HISTORY would have had priority... Cheesy

Back to top

IP Logged

cods

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 88048

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #8 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 4:11pm

Karnal wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 4:07pm:

matty wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

Bobby. wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 1:57pm:

Labor has no chance of winning.

They might as well throw in the towel now.

But Bobby, you were telling us a few weeks ago that the Coalition had already lost.

Yes, Matty, but without you in the driver's seat the Libs might as well throw in the towel.

Yes, Mr Abbott might get in, but to what end? That man's as good as a communist.

Whitey's even thinking of joining the Libs.

Thoughts?

well whitey makes more sense than you dear.. so we would welcome him.

Back to top

IP Logged

RightSadFred

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 2220
Gender: male

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #9 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:38pm

laborarecorrupt

What a lot of the muppets are forgetting is that 2010 was a draw, also the experts are saying is that this time around the ALP will have to do 1-2% better just to get to a draw situation that we had in 2010.

Its obvious stats, normally an incumbent government can tolerate a 2-4 % swing against it and still be in power.

This time around the ALP can not so any swing against them is disastrous at best

Given the 52-48 theory and a uniform swing (which never happens) Anthony Greens (from the ABC) gives you the following:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/?mode=overall&overal...

Coalition seats won 83
Labor seats won 64

The Problem for the ALP is that the swing is not uniform and the change is seats will be worse than the above assuming a 52-48 occurs after preferences.

Back to top

IP Logged

Dnarever Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 59458 Here Gender:	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #10 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:48pm Labor will lose election by 22 seats 22 is the same as 1. Ask the Liberals about this term.
Back to top	IP Logged

longweekend58

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 45675
Gender: male

Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats
Reply #11 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:51pm

RightSadFred wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:38pm:

laborarecorrupt

What a lot of the muppets are forgetting is that 2010 was a draw, also the experts are saying is that this time around the ALP will have to do 1-2% better just to get to a draw situation that we had in 2010.

Its obvious stats, normally an incumbent government can tolerate a 2-4 % swing against it and still be in power.

This time around the ALP can not so any swing against them is disastrous at best

Given the 52-48 theory and a uniform swing (which never happens) Anthony Greens (from the ABC) gives you the following:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/calculator/?mode=overall&overal...

Coalition seats won 83
Labor seats won 64

The Problem for the ALP is that the swing is not uniform and the change is seats will be worse than the above assuming a 52-48 occurs after preferences.

And lets not forget that the real action is in marginals and they are doing slightly WORSE than the national average. PLUS the green vote has been savaged and a lot of labor seats were won with green preferences.

But the real nightmare for Labor strategists who actually research polls, is that the polls may be generous to Labor. both QLD and NSW and even in VIC had polls that predicted a labor vote 1-3% higher than they eventually received. The explanation is that there are a small number who like labor and want to vote for them and say so in polls but when they get to the booth simply cant do it. If you take 3% away from Labors current 35% primary and add it to the coalition (admittedly a bit simplistic) then the 22 seat margin starts to look more like 50-60 seats or worse.

Labor would be delighted to lose by just 22 seats since at Gillards lowest point of 26% primary support the margin could have topped 90 seats!

Back to top

AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

IP Logged

longweekend58 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 45675 Gender:	Re: Labor will lose election by 22 seats Reply #12 - Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:52pm Dnarever wrote on Aug 15^th, 2013 at 5:48pm: Labor will lose election by 22 seats 22 is the same as 1. Ask the Liberals about this term. tell that to the QLD ALP and their tarago full of MPs and the Opposition Leader with no experience.
Back to top	AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..." IP Logged