Australian Politics Forum - Essential Research says 50/50

salad in Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5941	Essential Research says 50/50 Aug 20^th, 2013 at 1:09pm The Essential Research poll puts the 2PP figure at ALP and the Lib-NP 50% each (poll for 19th August). Quote: http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport
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cods Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 88048	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #1 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 1:12pm that was probably the same poll skippy took part in...
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Karnal Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 96815	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #2 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 1:25pm cods wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 1:12pm: that was probably the same poll skippy took part in... That’s right, Cods. Matty will have nothing to do with this organization. Appalling. Matty thinks they’re like watermelons - pink on the inside. We’re all pink on the inside, dear.
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skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #3 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 1:43pm According to pollsters on Twitter at least 16 percent of voters are STILL UNDECIDED, more than enough to change the results. Apparently, the pollsters that are getting 50/50 are not push polling and only accepting confirmed votes for the majors.
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buzzanddidj

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #4 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 2:16pm

THIS was interesting - though not surprising

Q. How much trust do you have in the way the following media have reported and commented on the election campaign so far?

see table ...

http://essentialvision.com.au/trust-in-media-coverage-of-election-campaign

The most trusted media for coverage of the election campaign were ABC TV (58% trust), SBS TV (52%) and ABC radio (49%).

The most trusted newspapers were The Age (42%) and the Sydney Morning Herald (39%).

The least trusted media were the Courier Mail (23%), The Telegraph (25%) and commercial radio (25%).

in summary ...

Rupert's Telegraph
- as the most read newspaper in the land - is also near
the least trusted
for truth

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #5 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 3:02pm

"TONY Abbott could lose the election with a slip of the tongue, a top pollster says.

"Although voter faith in the federal government has plummeted to levels not seen since the Howard era, polling firm Roy Morgan says Labor can still win."

http://www.news.com.au/national-news/federal-election/federal-election-2013-day-...

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True Colours Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2837 Gender:	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #6 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 3:38pm greggerypeccary wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 3:02pm: [i]"TONY Abbott could lose the election with a slip of the tongue, a top pollster says.
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Verge Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6329 Gender:	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #7 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:23pm I think its all over for Labor. Kevin's campaign has been terrible to date and at this stage Abbott is doing enough to not say anything to avoid scruinty. There has been impressive deflections as well. I think the ALP need to go into harm minimisation mode as opposed to all or nothing mode.
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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 75356 Gender:	Re: Essential Research says 50/50 Reply #8 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:38pm Don't you people listen to longlooser? He has already told you, Essential - bad ... newspoll - good
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longweekend58

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #9 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 5:52pm

John Smith wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:38pm:

Don't you people listen to longlooser? He has already told you, Essential - bad ... newspoll - good

Well you would be naïve and foolish to go against Newspoll, Galaxy and Neilsen as well as Morgan and Reachtell, ALL of which have Abbott in front. Only the margin disagrees,

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Bam

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #10 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:35pm

A comment about ER's methodology would be worth mentioning here:

From the website (see OP for the link):
Quote:

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

To paraphrase:
(1) This week's results also includes last week's polling;
(2) The 2PP figures are not necessarily indicative of the actual 2PP for the poll respondents because they did not actually ask for this explicitly. To derive 2PP, they used the 2PP from the 2010 election. The figures should be salted to taste. Most likely, the 2PP may understate the Coalition's figures a little. Katter and Palmer did not have political parties in 2010 and both these new parties have conservative leanings.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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longweekend58

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #11 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:40pm

Bam wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:35pm:

A comment about ER's methodology would be worth mentioning here:

From the website (see OP for the link):
Quote:

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

To paraphrase:
(1) This week's results also includes last week's polling;
(2) The 2PP figures are not necessarily indicative of the actual 2PP for the poll respondents because they did not actually ask for this explicitly. To derive 2PP, they used the 2PP from the 2010 election. The figures should be salted to taste. Most likely, the 2PP may understate the Coalition's figures a little. Katter and Palmer did not have political parties in 2010 and both these new parties have conservative leanings.

did I hear you correctly? you are actually saying the results are not all that reliable despite leaning towards your beloved Labor? Shouldn't you be quoting from independentaustralia and telling us how evil polling is unless it is in the labor side of the ledger?

All that aside, you are right. The 2week floating average ensures that this poll will have less volatility but in an election campaign, less accuracy.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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John Smith

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #12 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:52pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 5:52pm:

John Smith wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:38pm:

Don't you people listen to longlooser? He has already told you, Essential - bad ... newspoll - good

Well you would be naïve and foolish to go against Newspoll, Galaxy and Neilsen as well as Morgan and Reachtell, ALL of which have Abbott in front. Only the margin disagrees,

if Abbott loses will you deny saying that?

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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RightSadFred

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #13 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 7:05pm

John Smith

Your such a gutless wonder why not put your balls on the table if your so convinced these poles are wrong.

I think you can get around $7 for Rudd so instead of being a boring old clap-out left wing idiot, why not lay a lazy 50 on Rudd to win ?

As for the polling they all showed around 50/50 on the Rudd return now they are drifting away from the ALP with Newspoll leading.

Its got Rudd rattled, which I find very surprising ...... I wonder who is pulling his chain ?

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longweekend58

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Re: Essential Research says 50/50
Reply #14 - Aug 20^th, 2013 at 7:10pm

John Smith wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:52pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 5:52pm:

John Smith wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:38pm:

Don't you people listen to longlooser? He has already told you, Essential - bad ... newspoll - good

Well you would be naïve and foolish to go against Newspoll, Galaxy and Neilsen as well as Morgan and Reachtell, ALL of which have Abbott in front. Only the margin disagrees,

if Abbott loses will you deny saying that?

What kind of a stupid statement is that? I am on record in the past two election of discussing polls in the same manner. I knew Howard would lose in 2007 and only the margin was in doubt. 2010 was anyone's guess and the polls confirmed it.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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