longweekend58 wrote on Aug 23
rd, 2013 at 10:01am:
Karnal wrote on Aug 23
rd, 2013 at 9:48am:
John Smith wrote on Aug 23
rd, 2013 at 9:34am:
Andrei.Hicks wrote on Aug 23
rd, 2013 at 9:32am:
Whether it is an emergency or not - there are certainly budget issues.
You can't say missing forecasts 3 years in a row totalling over $109 billion of misses - is not an issue.
Blindly spending and keep deferring when you are going to bring the budget back into balance, is what got the United States and Europe into its current issues.
Six deficits in six years, missing forecasts by $109bn, 335% increase in debt, writing down a forecast by $33bn only 10 weeks after the last one?
All of those are hardly decent budgeting.
I notice you skipped the thread on the libs $30B budget blowout ...... hard to see why you would do that, after all, you aren't biased, you'd want to examine all the policies wouldn't you?
The Libs in government will base their budget estimates on exactly the same source as Labor: Treasury.
No they wont. Costello listened to Treasury but often ignored their advice and figures which is is why he was so often RIGHT
The Libs have no announced spending cuts.
The Libs actually have budget increases - two taxes axed, and a costly maternity leave scheme.
The Libs, therefore, are in exactly the same position as Labor and, as we all know, would have put similar stimulus measures into effect as Labor during the GFC. After all, this was Treasury's advice too, and Ken Henry was their man.
The "budget emergency" is just cynical politics. Up to a point, this is fair enough - that's what oppositions do.
At what point do you accept that the budget is in freefall ie emergency? this one missed by a monstrous amount of 10% of revenue!!!!
But the state of emergency is so camp it makes sense pantomime caricatures like Hockey, Pyne and Bishop are leading the charge.
To pretend they're better at the job "because they've done it before and will do it again" is ludicrous. Howard had a mining boom and gave out baby bonuses.
This time, the job won't be so easy.
Just because the job wont be easy this time is no reason to extinguish the record of the previous Liberal govt. That's illogical. A the moment we have two parties, one with a record that you might question (LIBS) and one we already know (LABOR). the one we know have already done a dreadful job so the alternative is unlikely to be worse.
that's just plain logic.
Any logic comes from the
cause of the problem: the unprecedented and unpredicted decline in tax revenues. The Libs themselves (Hockey) say they won't trust Treasury forecasts. That leaves them pretty high and dry, doesn't it?
Imagine Hockey doing his sums and going through terms of trade spreadsheets and predicting next year's revenue all on his lonesome.
The record of the previous government? A government doesn't earn money - a government
spends money. On the Libs' current spending, there's no way they'll get out of deficit. Abbott said he'd do it in one term. Hockey refuses to say when they'd do it.
Who to believe?
We can't believe anyone because the current economic outlook is not predictable. We are not in a period of steady economic growth anymore. The mining boom's in a new stage of development and the rest of the economy is still reeling from the years of a high Australian dollar. Europe's picking up, China's winding back.
Labor spent when they needed to - every major economy in the world did. The US is in deficit in the trillions.
On this fact alone, Labor have been shown to be good economic managers. They spent at just the right time, and it's not Labor saying this - it's the IMF.
Labor are not spending big now. Cut anymore and there will be problems. Every job you axe is another person down at Centrelink. Every business that goes under is more percentage points off the growth rate, which affects the credit rating. The credit rating goes down, the interest on government loans go up. Australia owes more.
This is how countries go into deep recession, which can take a generation to get out of. Ireland currently has unemployment at 13.5%.
The current government have managed this problem by running a deficit. If they didn't, Australia would be in recession.
The Libs will manage this problem by running a deficit too. I don't believe the Labor spin about Abbott cuts. The Libs WILL listen to Treasury, even if they pretend not to.
So there you have it: two opposing teams with the same economic problems, both blaming each other for imaginary faults and doing almost identical things.
The problem is not Labor, the problem is political spin. Oh yes, a big round of applause to effective opposition tactics, but you want logic?
The Libs will do exactly the same as Labor - same deficit, same mistakes, same revenue forecasts, same budget tricks and spin.
Only this time, you'll love them for it.
Forum
Pages: 
