Australian Politics Forum - Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?

longweekend58

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #45 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 7:11pm

The_Barnacle wrote on Aug 24^th, 2013 at 11:48am:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2013 at 4:51pm:

basic maths bozo. The explanation that Australia sucked up the WORLDS water is the kind of lunacy you expect from a bad sci-fi movie. I have no idea why it went down but I certainly know it wasn't that as does the huge number of scientists that ARENT standing in line to agree with it.

it speaks volumes about science's ability when it comes up with such demonstrably stupid crap as this. And you believe it too, just like a good non-think ideologue should.

Wow longy, you really have no idea do you. You should stear clear of the scientific threads and stick to your LNP propaganda threads.

It has been calculated that if the Greenland ice sheet melts it would cause the oceans to rise 6 metres.

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/quickfacts/icesheets.html

It is amazing how much water can be stored on land. During the last ice age sea levels dropped 100 meters.

Given these facts I find it no surprise that Australia's record rains of 2010 and 2011 would cause a small temporary drop in the sea levels.

and there is your basic problem: you'd believe ANYTHING if it agreed with your ideology.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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muso

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #46 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 7:55pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2013 at 7:44pm:

you are still talking about enough water to lower the oceans!!!! that is not credible. it is a stupid explanation. the amount of water involved in lowering the oceans by 7mmm PLUS the 3mm of thermal expansion makes it 10mm GLOBALLY. to do that would require every square metre of Australia to receive and absorb ENTIRELY 1000mm. there must be no evaporation and no runoff which accounts for between 50 and 70% of rainfall meaning that australias rainfall over the entire continent would have had to been 2000mm or around 5 times want much of the coast receives and 50 times that in the centre.

it doesn't add up at all.

Do you want to check your calculations, Longy? Ocean area = 3.50E+008 km^2. Area of Australia = 7.69E+006 km^2, which works out at 2.2 % of the Ocean surface area.

I make it 0.32metres over the two years for a 7mm drop, or an average of 0.16 metres per year. That doesn't seem implausible from where I stood during those years. Some inland regions were getting up to 4 metres!

The aquifers in Central Australia were enormously depleted prior to those two seasons, so with all the rain that drained West from the ranges, that would have had a significant effect. In fact there are measurements available if you dig enough:

http://www.nwc.gov.au/

Lake Eyre? Well that is an insignificant volume, but when you consider groundwater volumes, it comes pretty close.

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« Last Edit: Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:12pm by muso »

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rabbitoh07

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #47 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:18pm

As I posted elsewhere:

the surface area of the worlds oceans is about 360 million km2
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ocean

A 7mm drop would therefore be about 2500 km3 in volume.

The Great Artesian Basin is estimated to hold some 65,000 km3 of groundwater
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Artesian_Basin

So - a 7mm drop in the world ocean level equates to less than 4% of the capacity of the GAB.
And there is Lake Eyre, other surface and groundwater storage...

Furthermore - the average rainfall over Australia in 2010 and 2011 was about 700mm for each year
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/1301.0~2012~Main%20F...

Averaged over Australia's 7 million km2 - that is roughly 10,000km3 volume. 4 times that needed to decrease the world's ocean level by 7mm. Based on those very rough calcs - the researchers theory sounds reasonably plausible

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muso

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #48 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:22pm

Quote:

Frequent heavy rain events from spring 2010 to autumn 2011, and again in late 2011, lead to Australia's wettest two-year period on record. Averaged across Australia, total rainfall for 2011 was 705 mm, making it the second-wettest year on record (behind 1974 with 760 mm), and ahead of 2010 (third-wettest) with 703 mm. Back-to-back La Niña events resulted in a two-year rainfall total for 2010–2011 of 1409 mm, surpassing the old record of 1407 mm set during 1973–1974.

That, combined with the massive aquifer recharge, would have reduced ocean levels by 7mm at least.

Quote:

Special Climate Report - Australia's wettest two year period on record; 2010-2011 Issued 7th February 2012

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/scs38.pdf

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muso

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #49 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:26pm

rabbitoh07 wrote on Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:18pm:

Averaged over Australia's 7 million km2 - that is roughly 10,000km3 volume. 4 times that needed to decrease the world's ocean level by 7mm. Based on those very rough calcs - the researchers theory sounds reasonably plausible

Yes, we were thinking along the same lines and came up with similar results.

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rabbitoh07

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #50 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 8:37pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2013 at 7:44pm:

you are still talking about enough water to lower the oceans!!!! that is not credible. it is a stupid explanation. the amount of water involved in lowering the oceans by 7mmm PLUS the 3mm of thermal expansion makes it 10mm GLOBALLY. to do that would require every square metre of Australia to receive and absorb ENTIRELY 1000mm. there must be no evaporation and no runoff which accounts for between 50 and 70% of rainfall meaning that australias rainfall over the entire continent would have had to been 2000mm or around 5 times want much of the coast receives and 50 times that in the centre.

it doesn't add up at all.

What is causing the thermal expansion Longy?

Aren't you one of those people that always tell us that global warming "stopped" in 1998?

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freediver

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #51 - Aug 24^th, 2013 at 10:27pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 24^th, 2013 at 7:10pm:

for all you limited-comprehension buffoons... the OP was about mocking the EXPLANATION which was simply ludicrous. as usual you have avoided this and just run to your usual ideological positions.

The explanation given was entirely plausible Longy. In contrast your contribution to the debate rarely progresses beyond copying and pasting the latest idiotic variant of "frost this morning, therefor no global warming".

BTW, the tide is going back out now Longy. Have you heard the ludicrous explanation about the moon causing it?

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People who can't distinguish between etymology and entomology bug me in ways I cannot put into words.

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# Gold Member Offline A fool is certain: an ignorant fool, absolutely so Posts: 2603	Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC? Reply #52 - Aug 25^th, 2013 at 9:56am longweekend58 wrote on Aug 24^th, 2013 at 7:11pm: ... you'd believe ANYTHING if it agreed with your ideology. Nothing similar could be said of you, could it el58? Heaven forfend!
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longweekend58

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #53 - Aug 25^th, 2013 at 12:54pm

muso wrote on Aug 24^th, 2013 at 7:55pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 23^rd, 2013 at 7:44pm:

you are still talking about enough water to lower the oceans!!!! that is not credible. it is a stupid explanation. the amount of water involved in lowering the oceans by 7mmm PLUS the 3mm of thermal expansion makes it 10mm GLOBALLY. to do that would require every square metre of Australia to receive and absorb ENTIRELY 1000mm. there must be no evaporation and no runoff which accounts for between 50 and 70% of rainfall meaning that australias rainfall over the entire continent would have had to been 2000mm or around 5 times want much of the coast receives and 50 times that in the centre.

it doesn't add up at all.

Do you want to check your calculations, Longy? Ocean area = 3.50E+008 km^2. Area of Australia = 7.69E+006 km^2, which works out at 2.2 % of the Ocean surface area.

I make it 0.32metres over the two years for a 7mm drop, or an average of 0.16 metres per year. That doesn't seem implausible from where I stood during those years. Some inland regions were getting up to 4 metres!

The aquifers in Central Australia were enormously depleted prior to those two seasons, so with all the rain that drained West from the ranges, that would have had a significant effect. In fact there are measurements available if you dig enough:

http://www.nwc.gov.au/

Lake Eyre? Well that is an insignificant volume, but when you consider groundwater volumes, it comes pretty close.

your calculations assume ZERO evaporation which is an impossibility and far likely to be in the 80% range. It also assumes ZERO runoff thru rivers and stream also an epic fail with an estimated 50% of water in australia running off to sea or did the rivers around the country suddenly stop flowing? and aquifer recharge is not anywhere near as quick as you seem to conclude.

the other question to consider is why this is the FIRST time such an 'explanation' has been mooted. has there never been droughts in other countries before following by breaking rains?

the explanation as given is an embarrassment and is so stupid as to question the capability of the person making it.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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muso

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #54 - Aug 25^th, 2013 at 2:58pm

longweekend58 wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 12:54pm:

your calculations assume ZERO evaporation which is an impossibility and far likely to be in the 80% range.

No. They don't make any such assumption. Look again.

Quote:

It also assumes ZERO runoff thru rivers and stream also an epic fail with an estimated 50% of water in australia running off to sea or did the rivers around the country suddenly stop flowing? and aquifer recharge is not anywhere near as quick as you seem to conclude.

It doesn't assume that at all. In fact the runoff plus evaporation would have been around 78% of the total rainfall. Only 22% of the total rainfall was held up.

On your second point, artesian aquifers take a long time to recharge, but perched aquifers fill up pretty quickly, depending on the overlying lithology. (I thought you were in the business) I'm talking from experience. Having said that, some parts of the Great Artesian Basin experienced significant recharge.

Quote:

the other question to consider is why this is the FIRST time such an 'explanation' has been mooted. has there never been droughts in other countries before following by breaking rains?

It probably isn't the first time. In fact if you look at the sea level chart, you'll see a lot of blips in there. Australia is a significantly large land mass (2.2% of ocean surface area) and it was for the most part parched prior to the 2010 season.

Quote:

the explanation as given is an embarrassment and is so stupid as to question the capability of the person making it.

It's actually quite plausible once you do the calculation. I was a bit skeptical until I calculated it out.

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« Last Edit: Aug 25^th, 2013 at 3:29pm by muso »

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longweekend58

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Re: Sea Levels fall! What happened to ACC?
Reply #55 - Aug 25^th, 2013 at 4:09pm

muso wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 2:58pm: