perceptions_now wrote on Feb 23
rd, 2014 at 4:24pm:
Just because Politicians say something, doesn't make it true.
In fact, usually the opposite is correct.
In this instance, it is the opposite that is true, as the Global basics will make the Growth "aim" impossible!
What Global Basics, you say, well -
1) Demographics have been the backstop of Economic Growth, for around 60-80 years, depending on which criteria is used and the Peaks & troughs of Demographics are usually reflected 50 years later.
So, 2014 is now set to reflect the fact that the Baby Boomer era ended in 1964, which means Demand will Decline, not increase, as the last Boomers now go into their final savings years & the bulk of Boomers actually enter their "spendthrift" Retirement years.
And, 2014 is also set for the Bust phase of the current & usual Economic Boom/Bust cycle.
2) Peak Energy has arrived, thus the cost of Energy & everything related to energy has been rising & will rise much more, thus eating greatly into the "Disposable income" of the vast majority of people, thus reducing Demand.
3) Global Debt is already at historic highs and moves must be made to start the long haul back!
Thus Taxes must increase, Tax loopholes must be closed & Expenditures must Decrease, in order to start down the Debt reduction path.
This also means that Demand will Decline, not increase!
4) Climate Change, irrespective of whether it is natural or man made, is causing many problems. It is driving up costs, it is set to deliver a Decline in Agricultural Production & in many areas a lack of rainfall will put restrictions on Population increases.
All of which will put a further Decline into Demand!
So, whilst our "friendly Pollies", of all shapes & sizes, from here & elsewhere & from all types of Political Party's may say they will "aim" for higher Growth, But the Reality is, based on Real Facts, they have as much chance of success in achieving their higher Growth "aim", as does a Pig in trying to Fly, the Pig may try, but all that's going to happen is he will make the leap "of faith", then die, as he crashes to the ground!
Sorry, to be so blunt, But facts are facts and nothing any Polly will say, is going to make these facts go away!
Further to the Peak Energy issue -Running on empty: Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels
Australia’s dependence on traditional and imported liquid fuel sources and transport technologies is putting our national security – and very way of life – at risk, a new study has found. Yet Australia continues to ignore alternative fuel strategies, that could include more renewable energy and electric vehicles.
An NRMA-commissioned report on the nation’s liquid fuel security, released on Monday, warns that
Australia’s severely declining oil refining industry, and increasing demand for liquid fuels, could result in a scenario in 2030 where it has less than 20 days worth of fuel in reserve, and 100 per cent imported liquid fuel dependency.Titled Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security, the report recommends a comprehensive, national response that addresses both demand and supply sides of the liquid fuel delivery chain, including increased focus on the technologies and energy sources used and alternative fuel supply.
“Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.”
Link -
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/running-on-empty-australias-dependence-on-import...===========================================
The last sentence above, may ring a few bells, as that is pretty much what all of our Politicians have done, for the OZ Economy in general, over the last 40-50 years and now is the time "to reap what has been sown". Oh & btw, Australia's own Oil Production has Decline some 50%, since the turn of the century and Production continues to slide!
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