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Politics, Economics & New Realities! (Read 32271 times)
Vuk11
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #30 - Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:54pm
 
Nice post OP.

Another thing to understand that adds to how strange the situation really is; is the fact that world governments do not follow either school of economics like they claim.

Obviously governments are not following the Austrian school, that would meaning not printing to infinity, not running up too much debt, letting the market approach equilibrium and root out malinvestment, something they will never do it seems.

What's worse is that John Maynard Keynes was very specific when he advocated deficit spending to stimulate growth out of a recession. He proposed saving a surplus when the economy was strong so that the government could spend in a down turn to make the down turn short and not as damaging. While this is contrary to Hayek and Mises, the important thing to realise is that besides Japan [?] no large economy has saved a surplus in the first place, instead they actually think they can print money and go into debt and spend their way out of a recession.

Attached are the US interest rates kept artificially low since the GFC, the only problem is when it comes around again they can't lower interest rates again meaning AFAIK one of a few scenarios:

- Print money risking massive inflation and economic collapse
- Let the USD collapse for "X" reason
- Let the market root out malinvestment and level out the currency supply in massively painful but necessary depression (bite the bullet before it goes to far they're saying)

If anyone knows what else they propose I'd be interested as those three are all I've heard.
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #31 - Apr 23rd, 2014 at 7:11pm
 
Vuk11 wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:54pm:
Nice post OP.

Another thing to understand that adds to how strange the situation really is; is the fact that
world governments do not follow either school of economics like they claim.


Obviously governments are not following the Austrian school, that would meaning not printing to infinity, not running up too much debt, letting the market approach equilibrium and root out malinvestment, something they will never do it seems.

What's worse is that John Maynard Keynes was very specific when he advocated deficit spending to stimulate growth out of a recession. He proposed saving a surplus when the economy was strong so that the government could spend in a down turn to make the down turn short and not as damaging. While this is contrary to Hayek and Mises, the important thing to realise is that besides Japan [?] no large economy has saved a surplus in the first place, instead they actually think they can print money and go into debt and spend their way out of a recession.

Attached are the US interest rates kept artificially low since the GFC, the only problem is when it comes around again they can't lower interest rates again meaning AFAIK one of a few scenarios:

- Print money risking massive inflation and economic collapse
- Let the USD collapse for "X" reason
- Let the market root out malinvestment and level out the currency supply in massively painful but necessary depression (bite the bullet before it goes to far they're saying)

If anyone knows what else they propose I'd be interested as those three are all I've heard.


Absolutely correct!


And, given the length of "normal" Economic cycle, the next "crunch" is due about now!
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #32 - Apr 23rd, 2014 at 7:23pm
 
Kat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:43pm:
John Smith wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:27pm:
Kat wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 6:25pm:
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 23rd, 2014 at 5:44pm:
Household gas prices to increase by 17.6 per cent in New South Wales


The Independent Pricing and Regulatory Tribunal (IPART) has released a draft decision on regulated gas prices in New South Wales, suggesting an increase of around 17.6 per cent.

IPART's draft decision would take effect from the 2014-15 financial year.

It means from July 1, typical annual gas bills will rise by between $150 and $225 for households, depending on where people live and how much gas they use.

IPART chairman Dr Peter Boxall says the increases are largely due to rising wholesale gas prices.

"The ability to export liquid natural gas is driving a structural change in eastern Australia's wholesale gas market, and increasingly domestic gas prices will be influenced by what is happening in world gas markets," he says.

[



Well, there goes mine.

I'm already struggling with these obscenely high gas/electricity bills, now I'll have no option but to let the gas go altogether.

I'll have to go back to wood or coal heating (or double my power bill by using electric heating).



it's OK El Gatto ...Abbott said he'll bring down the cost of living  Grin Grin Grin


Don't we all wish...??

The Saudis virtually give their oil/petrol away to their own people, and make their (massive) profit on export sales.

We should be doing the same with our LNG, not using the pain thresh-hold as a pricing point as is currently the case.

If the govt were to do that, then mandate the mass switch to LNG-fuelled vehicles by, say, 2014, watch the cost
of living start to fall and jobs start to appear again. Who knows, it may even have helped to save our car industry.

It would also make it economical to switch from coal-fired to gas-fired power stations and help to substantially lower
electricity prices.

Sadly, because it would result in lower (not no) profits for several current greedy vested-interest groups, it will never
happen.


Well, that will have the "free market" types all a jitter?

But eventually, ALL of the natural Resources, WILL BE GONE & we the former owners, we will be left with nothing!

Oh & btw, when I say "eventually", I mean that pretty much most of our natural Resources (particularly Energy) will effectively be gone this century and effectively we will be left with scraps, after about 2050! 

And, in the interim, IF THE STATUS QUO CONTINUES, WE (THE PUBLIC) WILL PAY INCREASING HUGE INCREASES FOR OUR OWN NATURAL ENERGY RESOURCES, SIMPLY AS A SHORT TERM MEASURE TO CONTINUE GLOBAL ENERGY SUPPLIES, AT SOMEWHERE NEAR "NORMAL" LEVELS & SO SOMEONE CAN MAKE SOME HUGE SHORT TERM PROFITS!

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #33 - Apr 25th, 2014 at 12:00pm
 
Supreme Court Calls Lying by Politicians an Expression of Their Religion


In a landmark decision, the Supreme Court of the United States declared on Tuesday that lying by politicians is protected by the First Amendment because it is an expression of their religion.

By a 5–4 majority, the Court struck down an Ohio law that would make it harder to lie in political ads, arguing instead that
“any attempt to restrict or punish lying by politicians is an unconstitutional infringement on a religion they have practiced for decades.”


The Court’s decision won praise from politicians of both parties,
with many saying that the Justices’ recognition of lying as a religion was “long overdue.”

Writing for the majority, Chief Justice John Roberts argued, “For politicians, lying is a religious observance akin to attending a church or a synagogue, except that they do it seven days a week.”

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2014/04/supreme-court-calls...
========================================
As any Politician word say, that is just another example of Political -
Credible
Reliable
Abundant
Paradoxes

However, in my opinion, it's simply more absolute Political CRAP & of course, OZ Politicians are all tarred with the same brush!!!
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #34 - Apr 30th, 2014 at 2:05pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 29th, 2014 at 4:31pm:
We will have to wait, to see what is actually in the Budget?

But, IF the Deficit Levy is as suggested, with a 1% starting at $80,000 and then 2% at $180,000, with no other add-ons, THEN LABOR, THE GREENS & THE NEW PUPS SHOULD PASS IT!!!

It would also assist, IF A FEW OTHER MEASURES ALSO GOT INCLUDED, such as cutting the PPL, cutting a number of Tax avoidance issues, including cutting the Baby Bonus and also cuts to some of the Expenditure lines, particularly those that are used & abused!

Oh & btw, Yes these measures will put a crimp into spending, But that's what is going to happen, in circumstances such as what we now face and no matter what any Politician may say, what we now face are long term issues, which will take decades to go thru the Local & Global Economy!
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #35 - May 1st, 2014 at 10:05pm
 
Some Economic Realities!

Following is a list of countries, by Tax Revenue & Government Expenditure, both as a % of GDP.
These countries are those at the upper end of the Revenue & Expenditure area & I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.
I would suggest there are a few apparent trends and few issues which are relevant to the current OZ Budget discussion/crisis?


Country      Tax burden % GDP      Govt. expend. % GDP
Cuba      24.4      66.7
Libya      1.0      66.6
  Denmark      48.1      57.6
France      44.2      56.1
Finland      43.4      55.1
Belgium      44.0      53.3
Greece      31.2      51.9
Sweden      44.5      51.2
Austria      42.1      50.5
Italy      42.9      49.8
Netherlands      38.7      49.8
Hungary      35.7      49.4
Portugal      31.3      49.4
United Kingdom      35.5      48.5
Ireland      27.6      48.1
New Zealand      31.7      47.5
Germany      37.1      45.4
Spain      31.6      45.2
Iraq      1.9      44.6
Israel      32.6      44.6
Norway      43.2      43.9
Poland      31.7      43.5
Czech Republic      35.3      43.3
Japan      27.6      42.0
Canada      31.0      41.9
United States      25.1      41.6
Argentina      34.6      40.9
Algeria      10.0      40.4
Venezuela      12.5      40.1
Brazil      34.8      39.1
Angola      6.1      38.6
Kuwait      0.8      38.5
Oman      2.2      38.3
Romania      28.0      36.9
Kyrgyzstan      18.5      36.4
Belarus      24.7      36.0
Russia      29.5      35.8
Australia      25.6      35.3
Saudi Arabia      3.7      35.1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending

In addition, the following is a list of countries, showing their National Debt to GDP% in 2011.
Obviously most of these figures will now be "somewhat" higher, as Debt in most countries has continued escalate following on from the GFC.
Again,  I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.


Country               Debt % GDP
1   Japan             229.8
2   Greece               163.3
6   Italy               120.1
8   Portugal       106.8
9   Ireland               105.0
10 United States      102.9
18 France              86.3
19 Canada          85.0
20 United Kingdom  82.5
22 Germany         81.5
39 Spain             68.5
56 Norway           49.6
90 New Zealand   37.0
119 China           25.8
124 Australia      22.9
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country...

The above highlight some realities & some Political spin, But only some.


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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #36 - May 1st, 2014 at 11:34pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on May 1st, 2014 at 10:05pm:
Some Economic Realities!

Following is a list of countries, by Tax Revenue & Government Expenditure, both as a % of GDP.
These countries are those at the upper end of the Revenue & Expenditure area & I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.
I would suggest there are a few apparent trends and few issues which are relevant to the current OZ Budget discussion/crisis?


Country      Tax burden % GDP      Govt. expend. % GDP
Cuba      24.4      66.7
Libya      1.0      66.6
  Denmark      48.1      57.6
France      44.2      56.1
Finland      43.4      55.1
Belgium      44.0      53.3
Greece      31.2      51.9
Austria      42.1      50.5
Italy      42.9      49.8
Netherlands      38.7      49.8
Hungary      35.7      49.4
Portugal      31.3      49.4
United Kingdom      35.5      48.5
Ireland      27.6      48.1
New Zealand      31.7      47.5
Germany      37.1      45.4
Spain      31.6      45.2
Israel      32.6      44.6
Norway      43.2      43.9
Poland      31.7      43.5
Czech Republic      35.3      43.3
Japan      27.6      42.0
Canada      31.0      41.9
United States      25.1      41.6
Argentina      34.6      40.9
Venezuela      12.5      40.1
Brazil      34.8      39.1
Kuwait      0.8      38.5
Oman      2.2      38.3
Romania      28.0      36.9
Belarus      24.7      36.0
Russia      29.5      35.8
Australia      25.6      35.3
Saudi Arabia      3.7      35.1
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_spending

In addition, the following is a list of countries, showing their National Debt to GDP% in 2011.
Obviously most of these figures will now be "somewhat" higher, as Debt in most countries has continued escalate following on from the GFC.
Again,  I have taken the liberty of deleting some of those "lesser light countries", who may have figured in the report, but are not that significant on a Global scale.


Country               Debt % GDP
1   Japan             229.8
2   Greece               163.3
6   Italy               120.1
8   Portugal       106.8
9   Ireland               105.0
10 United States      102.9
18 France              86.3
19 Canada          85.0
20 United Kingdom  82.5
22 Germany         81.5
39 Spain             68.5
56 Norway           49.6
90 New Zealand   37.0
119 China           25.8
124 Australia      22.9
http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/774/economics/list-of-national-debt-by-country...

The above highlight some realities & some Political spin, But only some.


So, what do the above facts tell us?


Well, they tell us that we actually compare quite favorably now, against our major developed countries.

Our Tax Revenue is actually quite low, as is our Expenditure, as a % GDP and our Debt to GDP% is significantly lower than most similar countries, notwithstanding the fact that the Debt of OZ & most other countries has increases in recent years, which has largely arisen from the effects of the GFC.
   
So, it is actually SPIN of the part of the Liberals, to say that we have a budget emergency now, we certainly don't have much of an emergency yet, certainly not when we compare ourselves against most other countries!

That said, given Global factors, our Economy is bound to head on a downward path, as certain factors become more & more of an influence over the next 10-20 years, so we are most certainly heading towards an impending Economic/Budget emergency!

That said, the major factors that are influencing events already & which are set to make matters worse, have been known or should have been known, by the Political Party's, by Treasury, for some 30-50 years and notwithstanding this obvious knowledge, both of the major OZ Political Party's have not taken anything like what should have been appropriate actions, over the last 30-40 years!

These Political Party's have steadfastly continued to look after their own short term interests & those of their "supporters", BUT they have steadfastly avoided the actions they should have taken for the best, long term interests of all Australians.

Governments, from both Labor & liberal, have not put anywhere near enough away for the inevitable rainy days, which were obviously coming & are now arriving!

Both Liberal & Labor should have kept Taxes higher, particularly when times were good.
Both should have also restrained Expenditures, knowing that times would not always be as good, particularly knowing that the better Economic times were likely between 1980-1995, the best would occur around 1995-2005 and after that, Both the local & Global Economy would deteriorate from 2005 thru to around 2030 or longer. 

So, it is actually SPIN of the part of Labor, to say that we don't have an Economic/Budget emergency brewing, which is about to hit, because Labor don't want to have to admit that neither they (Labor), nor the Liberals did what they should have done, for a very long time & both have been up to their armpits in graft & corruption! 

Now, it won't fix anything immediately, But we need to send an unmistakable message to the Politicians, their "supporters" & to the 10%'ers, that change must come & it must come quickly!

And, the only way to send that message is to sack every incumbent, at every Local, State & Federal election, until real change takes place!

That message must start to go out and you & I, must send that message!     
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« Last Edit: May 2nd, 2014 at 8:37am by perceptions_now »  
 
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #37 - May 13th, 2014 at 10:51pm
 
Australian Federal Budget 2014: Treasurer Joe Hockey declares all Australians must endure hip-pocket pain


ALL Australians must endure hip-pocket pain in the national interest, Treasurer Joe Hockey has declared, as the nation contends with a harsh Budget the Government accepts will be deeply unpopular.

Declaring that “the days of borrow and spend must come to an end”, Treasurer Joe Hockey unveiled a barrage of short-term hits, such as the fuel excise that will add up to 3c a litre, a $7 co-payment for GP visits, a reining in of welfare and the debt tax.

What does the Budget mean to you?
South Australia has already benefited from infrastructure spending with almost $1 billion for the north-south corridor, but is set to miss out on its share of the $5 billion extra cash that is on offer for those states willing to sell their assets.

Mr Hockey has asked Australia to get behind his first Budget, saying his measures would bring down the deficit from $50 billion to about $30 billion next year, and then to a slender deficit of $2.8 million in 2017-18. The year after that, the Budget should be balanced, with a surplus by the end of the decade.

The Government blames the previous Labor Government for its struggle to fix the Budget.

“The challenge is not of our making, but we … accept responsibility to fix it,” Mr Hockey said.

The headline savings measures in the 2014-15 Budget include:
A FUEL excise increase, adding 3c to the price of petrol, with money to go towards infrastructure.

REDUCTIONS in family tax benefits, a push to get people off welfare and into work and indexation freezes for a range of programs, as well as savings from pensioners and the removal of the Seniors Supplement for health card holders.

CUTTING 16,500 public servants and abolishing government bodies and bureaucratic programs for a “smaller, less interfering Government”.

A $7 PAYMENT for a visit to the GP, more expensive medicines and the abolition of Medicare Locals.

A 2 PER CENT tax on people earning more than $180,000 to bring in $3.1 billion.

The spending measures include:
AN $11.6 BILLION infrastructure Growth Package for projects including SA’s north-south corridor.

A $20 BILLION Medical Research Future Fund, which Mr Hockey said would be the world’s biggest within six years. Health savings, including $5 from each $7 GP co-payment, to fund new medical research.

PRIME Minister Tony Abbott’s controversial paid parental leave scheme, capped at $50,000 a year instead of the original $75,000.

$820 MILLION in support for more than 80,000 higher education students, and $524.8 million for the Restart program to encourage employers to hire people aged 50 and older.

...

It is not yet clear which measures will make it through the new Senate, where the Government will need the support of crossbenchers if Labor opposes any of them.

Mr Hockey emphasised the need for the states to do more of the heavy lifting, and figures show that in a decade, they will effectively strip $20 billion a year out of education and health funding.

The Treasurer did not resile from that shift in focus, telling The Advertiser there was “no free lunch out of Canberra for the states”.

“States run schools, states run hospitals. It’s gotta get fixed,” he said.

The emphasis on states taking responsibility sparked questions about whether that would increase pressure for GST changes, and Mr Hockey said the GST would be considered in the Government’s tax reform White Paper as well as a Federation White Paper.

...

http://www.news.com.au/national/south-australia/australian-federal-budget-2014-t...
========================================
YES, there is a crisis, But Business is promised a 1.5% tax cut!?

READ MY LIPS -
YES, there is a crisis, BUT the crisis is not now, however it is coming!
YES, there is a crisis, BUT neither Liberal nor Labor are truthfully explaining what the real crisis is, nor when it will come, nor how long it will last!
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #38 - May 14th, 2014 at 11:01pm
 
My general observations are -
1) This Budget is far from fair, to all sectors!
2) The Budget is unlikely to be accepted & get thru the senate in tact, which means it will fail to achieve a reasonable real Budgetary outcome. And, even if it were to be passed, as is, it would still  not succeed in doing what the Liberals are saying it would.
3) Neither Liberal, nor Labor Political Party's are telling the truth, particularly regarding present & future Economic positions &/or outcomes.
4) Neither Labor, nor Liberal Political Party's will be able to deliver to sort of Economic outcomes, which they "pretend are required & deliverable", because the factors which are setting the local (OZ) Economic agenda are not inherent to Australia, they are actually Global in nature and there is now very little, if anything, which can be done to prevent the OZ Economy from transitioning Southward.
5) The sort of measures, which "could possibly" have at least given us "some buffer" against the current & future Global Economic tide/s, would have had to have been implemented some 30-50 years ago, to build enough backing and neither Labor, nor Liberal had the foresight, nor did either of them put sufficient emphasis on our long term interests, as they were all far too interested in their own short term interests & those of their "supporters"!

In essence, no matter whether Liberal or Labor are in government over the next decade or two, I wish you all the best of luck, because we will all need luck & lots of it!
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #39 - May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm
 
Politics, Economics & New Realities!


Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power.

To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far.

Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.
 
However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006. 

That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range=

The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.    
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease!

Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression.
...

However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000. 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026

Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system!

However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T!

The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings.

To be Continued.
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #40 - May 21st, 2014 at 10:25pm
 
Politics, Economics & New Realities! (Cont)


So, whilst we (OZ) are not yet in a financial crisis, we are irrevocably heading towards that crisis and there is absolutely nothing that either the Liberals or Labor, can now do, at this late stage, to prevent that from happening, but they can still take actions, to hopefully prevent the worst outcomes from becoming future fact! 

If our Politicians are to have any chance of sustaining a “reasonable existence” in Australia, over the next 20-30 years, whilst the Baby Boomer/ Energy Supply Bust continues to unfold, then they must do something that they are not used to doing. In other words, our Politicians will have to stop thing about their short term interests & those of their “supporters” & they will have to start thinking about the entire Australian Publics long term, best interests!      

To get anywhere near achieving a reasonable set of outcomes for the future of Australia, our Politicians, including Labor, Liberal & the rest must stop playing the usual Political games, which pervade the whole system!      

To get anywhere near achieving a reasonable set of outcomes for the future of Australia, our Politicians will need to start immediately on –
1)      Making the WHOLE Revenue & Expenditure system fair! This means those who can best afford it, will have to pay more & those who are playing the Expenditure system, will miss out!
2)      As part of the process, the ENTIRE SYSTEM MUST BE REVIEWED, not just part of it! This means that everything must be subject to what is in the best interests of the ENTIRE AUSTRALIAN PUBLICS FUTURE, not just what is in the personal short term interests of “some People”! This means that duplications must go, advantages provided that are no longer good value to the future system must go, Loopholes must be eradicated & politicians must be held to account & their unsustainable perks must be .
3)      Btw of clarification, this review & subsequent action, must include the top 10% of income earners, BIG/Global Business & Church businesses! Irrespective of what politicians, on both sides may say, these sectors must pay more and irrespective of what is said, they have paid more before, they will pay more in the future and they must pay more now, so that the system is in balance! A failure to do this, would not just throw too much burden back on those who can not afford it, it would also ensure that Economic Demand dies more than the Baby Boomer/ Energy Supply bust would otherwise have meant & it would mean a catastrophe for both the have’s & the have nots.

Any failure to interact & change the whole system AND make sure that everyone takes their fair share of the load, will ensure that the actions fail! 
In short, there would be NO WINNERS! 

If there are to be any winners, then ALL OF OUR POLITICIANS NEED TO STOP PLAYING GAMES & START FIXING BROKEN POLITICAL & ECONOMICS SYSTEMS, AS THERE ARE NEW REALITIES!

Cheers & good Luck, we will need it!
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stryder
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #41 - May 21st, 2014 at 10:28pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm:
Politics, Economics & New Realities!


Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power.

To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far.

Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.
 
However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006. 

That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range=

The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.    
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease!

Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression.
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png

However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000. 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026

Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system!

However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T!

The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings.

To be Continued.

 

So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #42 - May 21st, 2014 at 10:45pm
 
stryder wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:28pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm:
Politics, Economics & New Realities!


Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power.

To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far.

Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.
 
However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006. 

That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range=

The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.    
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease!

Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression.
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png

However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000. 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026

Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system!

However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T!

The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings.

To be Continued.

 

So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions


No, what I am actually saying is that -
1) More, should have been done before!
2) More, much more needs to be done now, BUT it must be fair & equitable or it will simply force the system to collapse more & do so, quicker!
And, that will apply to both Labor & Liberal!

As it stands now, the Global system will fall into a massive hole over the next few years (again) and IF we have any chance over coming out the other end, in anywhere near reasonable shape, then everyone must bear their fair share of the load.

That is not happening with the current Liberal Budget & unless there is a massive turnaround in Labor, it won't happen there, either.

So, it would appear likely that Australia is going to get hit & get hit hard, along with the rest of the world.

Both Labor & Liberal & their "supporters" are either going to have to realize "its not all about them" and realize it quickly or we will be as badly hit as the rest of the world is going to be hit, in the period ahead!   
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stryder
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #43 - May 21st, 2014 at 11:30pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:45pm:
stryder wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:28pm:
perceptions_now wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 10:23pm:
Politics, Economics & New Realities!


Whilst there is more than the usual amount of comment, on current the current Liberal Budget and the previous 6 years or so of Labor budgets/Deficits, there are some issues that should also be clarified & understood, because they clearly impact on some of what happened over the last Labor period in power & what is happening & will happen, during the current Liberal period in power.

To start with, Australia is not currently in a Financial crisis, although we are heading towards a financial crisis, along with most of the rest of the world, which has already been hit hard by the GFC and hit harder than Australia, so far.

Whilst Australia’s Debt increased during the recent Labor period, the Australian position pre GFC & now, was & is still considerably better than most other countries. Some would argue that the Australian position pre GFC, was due to the good financial management of the Howard /Costello era and I’m sure to some extent that is correct, But something similar could also be argued for the Hawke/Keating era, which brought in quite a few significant Economic changes.
 
However, whilst I’m sure that both Political camps could argue that it was their sides Policy actions which were better & the others were worse, the over-riding reason for the difference between the two outcomes was that the Howard/Costello years happened to also largely coincide with the Peak years of the Baby Boomer Economic Boom, which went from around 1995-2006. 

That said, Global share markets Peaked in October 2007, just before Labor were elected in November 2007, the GFC started impacting markets and the US DOW JONES, for example, bottomed out around February 2009, after dropping nearly 50%, with a 16 month period.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#symbol=^DJI;range=

The DOW has picked up since then, in a much similar fashion, to how it has picked up, after most other marker declines/crashes, certainly those after WW2.    
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/djia1900.html

But, that’s about where standard comparisons cease!

Whilst the US share markets have recovered & past their pre GFC highs, they did so, only due to massive stimulus efforts, both from the US government & the US Federal Reserve, but that has also raised both “official” & unofficial US Debt to levels never seen, except at the heights of the Great Depression.
http://www.usgovernmentdebt.us/include/usgs_chart4p02.png

However, for all of the additional US Debt and it is now over 100% of GDP, compared to Australia which is only about 25%, it has not rejuvenated the US Economy. Whilst the US Population has since grown by some 8 million, its Total workforce has since declined by about 500,000. 
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1026#1026

Oh & btw, Debt has almost always been a part of the US system!

However, whilst US share markets have bounced back, other markets, such as some in Europe have not, with the French CAC still down some 30%, the Australian All Ords still down some 20%, but none of the top 20 Global Economies have bounced back, in terms of the usual Economic Growth resurgence, as would “normally” be the case in the modern Economic era AND THEY WON’T!

The fact is that Economic Growth trend of the modern Economic era, is now dying and neither Globally, nor from an Australian perspective , can that trend be stopped or prevented, at this late stage of proceedings.

To be Continued.

 

So your suggesting abbott and hockey has been wrong on all fronts with the hated budget ????? Mr perceptions


No, what I am actually saying is that -
1) More, should have been done before!
2) More, much more needs to be done now, BUT it must be fair & equitable or it will simply force the system to collapse more & do so, quicker!
And, that will apply to both Labor & Liberal
!

As it stands now, the Global system will fall into a massive hole over the next few years (again) and IF we have any chance over coming out the other end, in anywhere near reasonable shape, then everyone must bear their fair share of the load.

That is not happening with the current Liberal Budget & unless there is a massive turnaround in Labor, it won't happen there, either.

So, it would appear likely that Australia is going to get hit & get hit hard, along with the rest of the world.

Both Labor & Liberal & their "supporters" are either going to have to realize "its not all about them" and realize it quickly or we will be as badly hit as the rest of the world is going to be hit, in the period ahead!   



If you have noticed the negative reaction to this so called tough budget, anymore than that would produce anarchy  now i believe it didnt go far enough in terms of cutting to spending, in fact it was redistribution of spending and some trimming to many government departments to programs, but just the small cuts themselves and extra taxes that was pledged not to come in has put abbott in a bit of a hole at the moment but i believe his policy is right on reform of the entitlement culture
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #44 - May 22nd, 2014 at 11:19am
 
stryder wrote on May 21st, 2014 at 11:30pm:
If you have noticed the negative reaction to this so called tough budget, anymore than that would produce anarchy  now i believe it didnt go far enough in terms of cutting to spending, in fact it was redistribution of spending and some trimming to many government departments to programs, but just the small cuts themselves and extra taxes that was pledged not to come in has put abbott in a bit of a hole at the moment but i believe his policy is right on reform of the entitlement culture



Unfortunately Stryder, you are doing what many Liberal/Labor supporters do, you are only looking at issues from the one perspective, which is from the perspective of the Political Party you support.

That mono perspective is part of the problem and it will certainly make finding solutions much more difficult, for what are actually a once in history set of problems!

For the record, I repeat again, this is not a matter of Labor is right and Liberal are wrong, in fact both are at fault.

We need a total review, but fair, with all sectors bearing their fair share of the load. That is not happening at present, it didn't happen under Labor past and I strongly suspect it won't happen under Labor future!
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