Australian Politics Forum - Politics, Economics & New Realities!

perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #45 - May 22^nd, 2014 at 11:26am

philperth2010 wrote on May 21^st, 2014 at 8:02pm:

Quote:

Tax breaks on superannuation, capital gains to cost $300b

Tax breaks on capital gains and superannuation could cost almost $300 billion over the next three years, budget figures show, renewing calls for the Abbott government to scale back concessions.

Economists said exemptions on fresh food, education, health and financial supplies from the goods and services tax – estimated to cost almost $78 billion over the period – also need to end.

Updated forecasts from Treasury in the federal budget papers show the capital gains tax exemption on the family home, the 50 per cent CGT discount and superannuation concessions remain the biggest costs to the budget.The figures are an update on Treasury’s tax expenditure statement released earlier this year. It had forecast out to 2017-16, whereas the budget papers forecast further out to 2017-18.

Since most household saving is concentrated in property and superannuation, the cost to federal revenue could grow as a percentage of GDP if no action is taken to tackle the budget sacred cows. Bank of America-Merrill Lynch chief economist Saul Eslake said CGT and super tax breaks should be scaled back, but not totally eliminated.

Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said the Commission of Audit had already suggested including the family home in the pensions assets test. “Treasury has considered the potential for something similar around CGT,” he said.

Many people on these boards have already stated how the budget could be fixed with more equitable measures taken instead of taxing the poor and changing our society for the worst.....Why are both major parties ignoring these sacred cows???

Huh

http://www.afr.com/p/national/tax_breaks_on_superannuation_capital_fivqxKm050y3i...

There are many areas where proper Revenue is forgone & many areas where improper Expenditure is allowed to continue, all of these need to be reviewed and many need to go, not matter whom they may affect, in the NEW Realities, which we now face!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #46 - Sep 8^th, 2014 at 5:13pm

I re-post the follow here, from the Finance and Economics section, as it is relevant.

Coming Economic Depression

Whilst there are possible (even likely) reasons, other than communicating current & upcoming Economic difficulties, on the mind of the author behind this video, it is also probable (even likely) that much of what is said, is also true.

Money velocity is certainly continuing to slow & that will prove to be a great difficulty, as Demand continues to Decline!

Certainly, US Debt & Unfunded Liabilities are well beyond "normal" and probably beyond control!

The US RedRes is certainly playing games & it is very likely that outcomes may well be beyond their control!

The US Share market is certainly well beyond realistic values & the DOW is likely to Decline & Decline sharply, by at least 50% or more, in the not too distant future!

Support for US Debt & the US$ is fraying & at some point that support will collapse. It is also likely that some of the current "support" has been "artificially arranged", by the FedRes!

As for the US$, it has certainly been "artificially propped up" recently & it will go back to its slide before much longer, probably with a little "aid", it will collapse & probably in the not too distant future!
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:KhBl4fAXkcgJ:moneymorning.c...

What the video didn't raise were the basic macro causes, which are -
1) Demographics
2) Energy - Supply shortages & Price Increases
3) Climate Change
=========================================================

Why is it relevant?

Well, because Politicians, herein OZ, in the US, in Europe & many other countries, both from the Right & Left of politics, from BIG Business, from Unions & from TPTB, have all had the opportunity to prevent this from happening & regrettably over the last 40-50 years, they have all become part of the problem, rather than being part of a solution.

And, the cumulative effect, is that they have ruined it, for us, for future generations & for themselves!

So, well done, NOT!
They knew or should have known & we, well we were all interested only in ME and we did not stand up for US!

Well, in the final wash up, WE may get the ME that we deserve, which means all of US will miss out!?

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« Last Edit: Sep 8^th, 2014 at 5:20pm by perceptions_now »

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #47 - Sep 10^th, 2014 at 11:41am

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant.

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 10^th, 2014 at 11:40am:

Iron ore slide helps focus minds

http://images.smh.com.au/2014/09/05/5738054/Article%20Lead%20-%20narrow610636531...

The drop in the price of iron ore has helped focus minds on Australia's economic prospects this week, along with a raft of other data and indicators.

The price of iron ore, used to make steel, bounced around new five-year lows throughout the week before settling on Friday at $US84.30 ($90.21), its lowest point since September 25, 2009. The mineral, by far Australia's most important export, currently sits at just above half its all-time high – about $US190 – which it reached in 2011. The fall stemmed partly from growing supply and slower economic growth in China.

Australia's economic fortunes during the global financial crisis and the subsequent fallout have been largely tied to the mineral, which accounts for more than $1 in every $5 of Australia's export income.

Demand for coking coal that is used to fire the steel mills and the thermal coal burnt to make electricity also played to Australia's advantage as a large-scale exporter of the dark combustible.

Like all booms, however, the mining infrastructure bonanza had to end.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/iron-ore-slide-helps-focus-minds-20140905-10ct0l....
=====================================================
Iron ore price at new five-year low

The price of iron ore has again failed to find support in overnight trade, slipping further away from the $US85 a tonne mark.

Benchmark iron ore for immediate delivery to the port of Tianjin in China is currently trading at $US83.20 a tonne, down half a per cent from its $US83.60 closing mark in the previous session.

Analysts have largely been revising their forecasts lower in recent months, though Westpac’s chief economist Bill Evans yesterday bucked the trend by issuing a forecast for prices to rebound above $US100 a tonne next year.

Mr Evans also tipped a “probable jump above $US120 a tonne in 2016, according to The Australian.

A more downbeat assessment has been offered by Alberto Calderon, however, with the former senior BHP executive suggesting the price has further to fall.

“On one side, we will see almost no growth in Chinese demand for iron ore, even if there is some growth in steel,’’ Mr Calderon said.

“On the other side, we are seeing a wall of iron ore supply being dropped in to the market by the large mining companies. It is not difficult to see why iron ore prices have collapsed and why they will go even lower.’’

Mr Calderon suggested prices in the $US70s could be seen for the next couple of years.

http://www.couriermail.com.au/business/breaking-news/iron-ore-price-at-new-five-...
=====================================================
A few observations -
1) Never believe what Politicians or Economists say, they only say what THEY want you to believe, not what are likely realities!
2) Given the main "known" Global factors that are currently influencing events & will be for quite some time (Demographics most of all), it is very unlikely that Demand for iron ore will do anything, other than go lower, which mean the Price of Iron ore will also continue to head lower!
3) Therefore, the suggestions of Politician (such of Colin Barnett - WA Premier) & economist (Bill Evans - Westpac’s chief economist), that iron ore Prices will rise again, ARE NOT BELIEVABLE!
4) Consider the likely outcomes, when CHINA (our major Economic supporter in recent times) ALREADY HAS ENTIRE CITIES WHICH HAVE BEEN BUILT, BUT ARE TOTALLY UNOCCUPIED!

I would suggest that most newer Australian mines will absolutely be in loss situations very soon, if not already & many will begin shedding their workforce first, then closing down completely and the older ones will also be substantially affected over the next few years!

Those who are shareholders may find this unpalatable, But it is the likely Reality!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #48 - Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 7:45pm

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 6:41pm:

It has been said -
"For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then?

Date US Regular Gas Prices Wti Oil Price
(per Gallon) (per Barrel)
28/12/1998 $0.914 $11.31
27/12/1999 $1.263 $26.02
25/12/2000 $1.388 $28.40
31/12/2001 $1.096 $19.31
30/12/2002 $1.417 $29.44
29/12/2003 $1.454 $32.12
27/12/2004 $1.754 $43.23
26/12/2005 $2.188 $59.41
25/12/2006 $2.303 $59.25 (?)
31/12/2007 $3.028 $91.36
Peak Oil Price, during July,2008 $147.00
28/07/2008 $3.896 $133.38
29/12/2008 $1.590 $41.44
23/02/2009 $1.868 $39.15
28/12/2009 $2.564 $74.49
27/12/2010 $3.015 $89.22
26/12/2011 $3.213 $98.61
31/12/2012 $3.245 $88.19
30/12/2013 $3.264 $97.90
29/12/2014 $2.229 $59.10
23/02/2015 $2.256 $50.72
30/03/2015 $2.348 $47.78

US Regular Gas Prices
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&...
Wti Oil Prices
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermedia...

Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol Pricing was -
Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre
23/02/2015 $1.24
30/03/2015 $1.34
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm

By way of observation -
In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.
In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.

The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some?
Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #49 - Apr 23^rd, 2015 at 12:18pm

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 7:45pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 6:41pm:

It has been said -
"For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then?

Date US Regular Gas Prices Wti Oil Price
(per Gallon) (per Barrel)
28/12/1998 $0.914 $11.31
27/12/1999 $1.263 $26.02
25/12/2000 $1.388 $28.40
31/12/2001 $1.096 $19.31
30/12/2002 $1.417 $29.44
29/12/2003 $1.454 $32.12
27/12/2004 $1.754 $43.23
26/12/2005 $2.188 $59.41
25/12/2006 $2.303 $59.25 (?)
31/12/2007 $3.028 $91.36
Peak Oil Price, during July,2008 $147.00
28/07/2008 $3.896 $133.38
29/12/2008 $1.590 $41.44
23/02/2009 $1.868 $39.15
28/12/2009 $2.564 $74.49
27/12/2010 $3.015 $89.22
26/12/2011 $3.213 $98.61
31/12/2012 $3.245 $88.19
30/12/2013 $3.264 $97.90
29/12/2014 $2.229 $59.10
23/02/2015 $2.256 $50.72
30/03/2015 $2.348 $47.78

US Regular Gas Prices
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&...
Wti Oil Prices
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermedia...

Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol Pricing was -
Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre
23/02/2015 $1.24
30/03/2015 $1.34
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm

By way of observation -
In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.
In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.

The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some?
Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Interesting hey?
It is said, "Money makes the world go round"?

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #50 - Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm

I repost the following here, as it is relevant.

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 16^th, 2015 at 2:40pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2015 at 6:41pm:

It has been said -
"For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then?

Date US Regular Gas Prices Wti Oil Price
(per Gallon) (per Barrel)
28/12/1998 $0.914 $11.31
27/12/1999 $1.263 $26.02
25/12/2000 $1.388 $28.40
31/12/2001 $1.096 $19.31
30/12/2002 $1.417 $29.44
29/12/2003 $1.454 $32.12
27/12/2004 $1.754 $43.23
26/12/2005 $2.188 $59.41
25/12/2006 $2.303 $59.25 (?)
31/12/2007 $3.028 $91.36
Peak Oil Price, during July,2008 $147.00
28/07/2008 $3.896 $133.38
29/12/2008 $1.590 $41.44
23/02/2009 $1.868 $39.15
28/12/2009 $2.564 $74.49
27/12/2010 $3.015 $89.22
26/12/2011 $3.213 $98.61
31/12/2012 $3.245 $88.19
30/12/2013 $3.264 $97.90
29/12/2014 $2.229 $59.10
23/02/2015 $2.256 $50.72
30/03/2015 $2.348 $47.78

US Regular Gas Prices
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&...
Wti Oil Prices
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermedia...

Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol Pricing was -
Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre
23/02/2015 $1.24
30/03/2015 $1.34
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm

By way of observation -
In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.
In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.

The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some?
Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Higher petrol prices on the way

Sorry, drivers. It looks like that brief, beautiful moment of cheap petrol you've probably just got used to is coming to an end.

A report from market researcher CommSec shows petrol is set for its biggest quarterly price jump in nearly 25 years.

The average price of a litre of petrol in the week to June 14 was $1.42, compared with less than $1.10 at the start of the year.

"Petrol is the single biggest weekly purchase for most families."

So far in the three months that will end June 30, CommSec estimates the price of petrol has increased 13.1 per cent. If this continues to the end of the month, it will be the biggest quarterly increase since December 1990.

The price of oil around the world plummeted in 2014. Increased production from the US prompted a price war with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and motorists around the world benefited as lower prices reached the bowser.

But since February, prices have begun to rebound. While petrol is still cheaper than it was a year ago, the price has increased by about 30 per cent.

The price of oil around the world plummeted in 2014. Increased production from the US prompted a price war with the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and motorists around the world benefited as lower prices reached the bowser.

Mr James said higher petrol prices and a weaker Australian dollar were likely to make people more reticent about spending.

This could affect the economy more broadly, and could even influence the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider cutting interest rates.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/higher-petrol-prices-on-the-way-20150616-ghow8o
=============================================
As previously stated, when Oil hit $147 a barrel in 2008, Perth Unleaded Petrol hit a high $1.60 a litre.

In the early part of this year, Oil hit lows of around $44 and ULP in Perth hit around $1.05.

Since then, ULP was often around $1.30 a little, as the Oil Price rose again and since early May, Oil has platued at around $60.00.

In Perth yesterday, many stations had ULP at around $150.00 and the suggestion is that prices will rise further.

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY!

And, inflation has been low.

The questions that beg to be answered, is -
1) WHY????
2) WHY ARE NEITHER LIBERAL NOR LABOR SCREAMED THE PLACE DOWN, TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF WHY THIS MASSIVE THEFT IS BEING PERPETRATED ON THE PUBLIC????

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #51 - Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:56pm

I repost the following 2 posts here, as the issues involved in the theft on the OZ Public, via Petrol Pricing, directly relates to the Corruption of the Political System!

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 4:59pm:

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 2:01pm:

There is no massive theft.
In fact forecourt prices on the whole have remained relatively in sync with cost fluctuation for the last decade.
The forecourt franchisee often has a band fluctuation built into his contract of tenure but often will stick rigidly to the recommended sale price so rarely are you being price gouged by franchise operators.

Really Andrei???

In July 2008, we hit highs, where -
1) Oil hit US$147 a Barrel or AU$153 @ 95.00 conversion rate.
2) The standard ULP Price in Perth hit $1.60

As of the beginning of January 2015 -
1) The Price of a Barrel of Oil was US$47.93 or AU$58.66 (62% lower) @ 81.71 conversion rate).
2) The standard ULP Price in Perth was around $119.00 (26% lower) .

As of Today June 17, 2015 -
1) The Price of a Barrel of Oil is US$60.55 or AU$78.40 (13.36% higher) @ 77.23 conversion rate).
2) The standard ULP Price in Perth is around $1.48 (24% higher).

So, how do you figure there is no theft?

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #52 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:43pm

I repost the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 1:37pm:

A couple of things, to keep in mind regarding Credit Card rates -
1) People "sometimes" have choices, when it comes to adjusting their financial actions, But "sometimes" they do not.
2) The RBA Cash rate actually Peaked in early 1990 at around 17% & it is now 2%.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/chronology-of-interest-rate-moves-since-1990-2013...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/image/6510934-4x3-340x255.jpg
Whilst the Credit Card Rates Peaked a little later, then Declined to around 14% in 1994, before rising again to around 20% in 2008.

However, from around 2008 the usual correlation between RBA & Card rates has ceased!
After 2008 -
The RBA Cash rate Peaked around 7.25% in early 2008, the rate briefly dipped to 3% in early 2009, before rising again to 4.75% in late 2010, then finally Declining again, to now be at 2%.
BUT, Credit Card rates Peaked around 20% in 2008, the rate the rate briefly dipped to 17% in 2009, before rising again to 2% in 2010, which is pretty much where it has been since then!

So, SINCE 2008, THERE HAS BEEN A COMPLETE DISCONNECT, WITH THE REGULATORY AGENCIES, ALL POLITICIANS & THE BANKS, SAYING VERY LITTLE ON THE FACT THAT CREDIT CARD RATES HAVE BEEN ROBBING THE PUBLIC BLIND, OVER AT LEAST THE LAST 7 YEARS!!!

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bogarde73

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #53 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 2:37pm

You can only say they are "robbing the public blind" if they are taking peoples' money by force.
I don't see any force being used here. There's no Al Capone coming round and bashing people up.

It's a free choice. Don't have a credit card or, better still, pay the balance off (ie what you've spent of other peoples' money) before the due date and you won't have to pay interest.

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Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #54 - Jun 26^th, 2015 at 5:07pm

bogarde73 wrote on Jun 26^th, 2015 at 2:37pm:

You can only say they are "robbing the public blind" if they are taking peoples' money by force.
I don't see any force being used here. There's no Al Capone coming round and bashing people up.

It's a free choice. Don't have a credit card or, better still, pay the balance off (ie what you've spent of other peoples' money) before the due date and you won't have to pay interest.

As I have already stated, "some" people can take actions to avoid paying these charges, BUT "some can not!

In any event, there are a great number who have not taken action & there are a great number who are not aware that the Banks, with "covert" assistance from the Politicians, have set up the system, TO ROB THEM BLIND!

And Yes, the Banks, the Politicians & the system, ARE ROBBING THEM BLIND, AS MANY WERE/ARE BLIND TO THE FACTS, AS THE FACTS HAVE BEEN "CONVENIENTLY AVOIDED, BY ALL IN THE SYSTEM"!!!

rob blind
rob someone blind
1. Fig. to steal freely from someone. Her maid was robbing her blind. I don't want them to rob me blind. Keep an eye on them.
2. Fig. to overcharge someone.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #55 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:02am

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 10:53am:

Well, it seems that the "raw nerves" & "Real Realities" are now beginning to show!

The DOW went Down again overnight, this time by 531 points (3.13%) , to finish @ 16,460.
And, much of Europe went down around 3%
.
http://www.investing.com/indices/major-indices

The VIX Volatility index has risen substantially over recent days, with a nearly 50% increase yesterday alone & it now stands @ 28.
http://www.investing.com/indices/volatility-s-p-500

OZ was also down again yesterday, by 71 points & now stands @ 5,225.
http://www.tradingroom.com.au/apps/index.ac

Given the results overnight, further substantial falls are likely in OZ next week, particularly on Monday & particularly if the DOW Futures shows up further falls on Monday!
The Timing of crashes is always "somewhat difficult", But it would appear the "end game scenario" is now certainly sooner, rather than later!

And all that most of our Pollies are doing is trying to look after their own "personal short Term interests"!

A Pox on both their Houses!

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Swagman

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #56 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27am

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY!

And, inflation has been low.

The questions that beg to be answered, is -
1) WHY????

.......demand in-elasticity of oil

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #57 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 12:34pm

Swagman wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY!

And, inflation has been low.

The questions that beg to be answered, is -
1) WHY????

......
.demand in-elasticity of oil

Ho! Ho! Ho!
That is funny?

The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price!
And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES?

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bogarde73 Gold Member Offline Anti-Global & Contra Mundum Posts: 18443 Gender:	Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities! Reply #58 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 1:27pm Two part answer: 1 petrol refining is a cartel 2 Woolworths & Coles
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crocodile

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #59 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 1:59pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 12:34pm:

Swagman wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY!

And, inflation has been low.

The questions that beg to be answered, is -
1) WHY????

......
.demand in-elasticity of oil

Ho! Ho! Ho!
That is funny?

The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price!
And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES?

It's not that funny. Swaggie is right. As long as demand is outstripping supply the price will not be elastic. This is regardless of the cost of production. I'm not saying it's good or bad, just telling you how it is.

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Very funny Scotty, now beam down my clothes.

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