Australian Politics Forum - Politics, Economics & New Realities!

mariacostel Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 7344 Sydney Gender:	Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities! Reply #60 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.
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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #61 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 7:38pm

crocodile wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 1:59pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 12:34pm:

Swagman wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jun 17^th, 2015 at 6:52pm:

So, the Price of a Barrel of Oil is still some 60% lower than 2008, But the Price of ULP is only some 7.5% lower and it is heading higher, SUPPOSEDLY!

And, inflation has been low.

The questions that beg to be answered, is -
1) WHY????

......
.demand in-elasticity of oil

Ho! Ho! Ho!
That is funny?

The question was, given that the Oil Price has come down so much, WHY hasn't the Petrol Price!
And, why do we hear NOTHING FROM OUR POLLIES?

It's not that funny. Swaggie is right. As long as demand is outstripping supply the price will not be elastic. This is regardless of the cost of production. I'm not saying it's good or bad, just telling you how it is.

But, Demand is NOT outstripping Supply!
In fact, Demand Growth is slowing, whilst Supply MAY have actually picked up slightly, over the last couple of years, due mainly to new production methods, such as Fracking, although recently that production has started to fall away due to lower Demand/lower Prices!
The fact is Demand, which has been THE Growth Driver, is now in a Decline phase, owing mainly to Demographics and at some point Demand for Oil/Pterol & most other Products will actually go into Real Decline!
The fact is, Demand & Economic Growth in general, is now is now slowing & will actually Decline, as time rolls on.
So, all the talk by our "friendly Pollies" about Economic & Jobs Growth, IS SIMPLY BS, no matter which party they come from!!!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #62 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 7:53pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm:

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

I re-post the following, as it is relevant -
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 7:50pm:

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 2:28pm:

Remember when we said

When America sneezes everyone gets flu?

It looks like the same goes for China.

The heat is on.

Will there be a miraculous recovery or will the dominoes keep tumbling?

All will be revealed in a short time.

The beginning of the end of unfettered capitalism. There should have been boundaries.

Yes, it seems we are now in the final phase, so the "end game scenario's" are likely sooner, rather than later!

Whilst timing for this sort of event, is extremely difficult, as there are a myriad of players & a myriad of possible inputs, the final "end game scenario's" have been pretty much set in concrete for quite some time, just awaiting the final show to start up, which I think is now underway.
So, I think it is likely that the main show will commence before the end of this year or the end of next year, at the latest!
But, of one thing I am certain, the "end game" has commenced!

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Grappler Deep State Feller

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #63 - Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm:

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

Give it time - Australia has been in recession for over twenty years now and like misogyny, the definition has simply been changed to suit the requirement that nobody know it.

One in twelve or even more Australians vying for work are not in full-time work - which is the only thing that can possibly keep their heads above water and provide them with a viable future.

That has been the reality for years now - and none dare call it Depression. We simply apply longyathematics, and an actual decline in jobs is a vast increase under LNP but a huge downward turn under Labor, and escalating costs of living while more are poorer is a sign of a positive and balanced economy.

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“Facts are stubborn things; and whatever may be our wishes, our inclinations, or the dictates of our passion, they cannot alter the state of facts and evidence.”
― John Adams

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mariacostel

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #64 - Aug 23^rd, 2015 at 6:08pm

Grappler Deep State Feller wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 11:27pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 22^nd, 2015 at 6:50pm:

The funniest thing about this thread is that the OP is 2 years old and all the dire predictions have failed. It is a bit like the annual prediction of a recession in Australia for I think the 8th straight year now. After a while you just nod and smile while inwardly laughing.

Give it time - Australia has been in recession for over twenty years now and like misogyny, the definition has simply been changed to suit the requirement that nobody know it.

One in twelve or even more Australians vying for work are not in full-time work - which is the only thing that can possibly keep their heads above water and provide them with a viable future.

That has been the reality for years now - and none dare call it Depression. We simply apply longyathematics, and an actual decline in jobs is a vast increase under LNP but a huge downward turn under Labor, and escalating costs of living while more are poorer is a sign of a positive and balanced economy.

A) Australia has NOT been in recession at all since 1990 and the definition has not changed for many many decades
B) The numbers of jobs has risen, not dropped
C) the unemployment rate is one in 16 not one in 12.
D) there are less poor now than 20 years ago.

In short, you pretty much got every single statement dead wrong. Why do you do this? They aren't even difficult questions and you still get them wrong!

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« Last Edit: Aug 23^rd, 2015 at 6:25pm by mariacostel »

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #65 - Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

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mariacostel

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #66 - Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

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crocodile

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #67 - Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

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Very funny Scotty, now beam down my clothes.

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mariacostel

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #68 - Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm

crocodile wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #69 - Aug 24^th, 2015 at 7:01pm

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here.
Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

It is correct that there is always movement, both up & down, on share markets, both local & Global and that is a given!

That said, THE BASICS THAT ARE CAUSING WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW, THE LEAD UP TO IT (the GFC) & WHAT IS TO COME IN THE YEARS AHEAD, YES IT IS UNPRECEDENTED AND THE POLLIES ARE AWARE OF IT, BUT SAY NOTHING!!!

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crocodile

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #70 - Aug 25^th, 2015 at 8:14am

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

Well the Dow was pretty well smashed last night as well. Expected of course. Then again the US have had QE for quite a while so the stock prices are probably inflated anyway. Interesting times ahead. By the way, the futures exchange is not that artificial. In times of floating currencies and variable interest rates they are quite a popular hedging instrument.

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Very funny Scotty, now beam down my clothes.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #71 - Aug 25^th, 2015 at 11:23am

crocodile wrote on Aug 25^th, 2015 at 8:14am:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:31pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:24pm:

mariacostel wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 5:18pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:47pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 24^th, 2015 at 4:44pm:

Well, All Ords finished day down 211 @ 5,014.
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^aord

Shanghai was also down about 9%, but is now down just over 8%.
http://www.investing.com/indices/shanghai-composite

The US DOW Futures have been down as much as just over 500 points, but at present it is down just over 400 points (about 2.5%).
http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-futures-advanced-chart

I have heard a "few" comments today, from representatives of the financial/Political sectors & frankly I would put ZERO credibility on most comments!

Do you mean to say that there is anything even remotely new or novel about a share-market slump? There have been dozens of such slumps in recent decades. It is all part of the way in which it works.

Maybe so but a drop of 4.2% in one day with US futures down before their market has even opened for business is not something to take too lightly.

I'm not saying that it isn't bad news, but I am saying that it isnt even remotely unprecedented which is the prevailing sentiment here. Could there be anything more artificial though than a Futures Market?

Well the Dow was pretty well smashed last night as well. Expected of course. Then again the US have had QE for quite a while so the stock prices are probably inflated anyway. Interesting times ahead. By the way, the futures exchange is not that artificial. In times of floating currencies and variable interest rates they are quite a popular hedging instrument.

I would suggest it is a reasonably safe assumption that most governments & C/B's, particularly the US Government & FedRes, will try SOME INTERVENTIONS, so there will be both UPS & DOWNS, but the ECONOMIC BASICS ARE CLEAR & OVER THE YEARS AHEAD THE DOWNTREND WILL BECOME CLEAR!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #72 - Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:14pm

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:04pm:

China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says

China is sliding into recession and the leadership will not respond quickly enough with large-scale fiscal policies that could avoid a major slowdown and stimulate demand, Citigroup's top economist Willem Buiter said.

The only thing to stop a Chinese recession, which the former external member of the Bank of England defines as 4 per cent growth on "the mendacious official data" for a year, is a consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus program funded by central government and monetised by the People's Bank of China, Buiter said.
"Despite the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this," said Buiter, the man who coined the term "Grexit" during the Greek debt crisis.

China "is an economy that's sliding into recession," the renowned chief economist at Citigroup told a media call hosted Thursday by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Premier Li is seeking to defend a 7 per cent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fuelling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion "is probably something closer to 4.5 per cent, or less," Buiter said.

Data accuracy
Some economists and investors have long questioned the accuracy of China's official growth data.The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month put China's first-half GDP growth rate at 6.3 per cent, compared with the official figure of 7 per cent.

The boom and bust in the Shanghai Composite Index, which more than doubled in about a year before a selloff erased $7 trillion in market value in two months, is raising questions about "the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy," Buiter said.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-g...
==============================================
Well, I don't know what questions are being raised, BUT there are certainly massive question marks over many issues & much of what Governments & CB's are doing, IS VERY QUESTIONABLE!

The facts are that the major drivers of Global Economic Growth are now going into Decline AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT ANY GOVERNMENT OR CENTRAL BANK CAN DO TO CHANGE THAT DIRECTION!

Those major Economic Drivers being -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) An almost Perfect Global Climate

So, Governments & C/B's are simply going to have to CHANGE THEIR STANDARD PRACTICE OF REQUIRING GROWTH & THEY WILL NOW HAVE TO ENSURE WE ALL LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS!

In other words, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS UNLIMITED GROWTH AND WE ARE NOW AT THE LIMITS OF MANY THINGS WHICH PREVIOUSLY DROVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, SO WE MUST ALL NOW PULL OUR HEADS IN & THAT INCLUDES POLITICIANS, THE WEALTHY, BIG BUSINESS, UNIONS & THOSE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE LIVE OFF ENTITLEMENTS, TO WHICH THEY MAY NOT BE ENTITLED!

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mariacostel

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #73 - Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:22pm

Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #74 - Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:24pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:14pm:

I re-post the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 28^th, 2015 at 6:04pm:

China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says

China is sliding into recession and the leadership will not respond quickly enough with large-scale fiscal policies that could avoid a major slowdown and stimulate demand, Citigroup's top economist Willem Buiter said.

The only thing to stop a Chinese recession, which the former external member of the Bank of England defines as 4 per cent growth on "the mendacious official data" for a year, is a consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus program funded by central government and monetised by the People's Bank of China, Buiter said.
"Despite the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this," said Buiter, the man who coined the term "Grexit" during the Greek debt crisis.

China "is an economy that's sliding into recession," the renowned chief economist at Citigroup told a media call hosted Thursday by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Premier Li is seeking to defend a 7 per cent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fuelling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion "is probably something closer to 4.5 per cent, or less," Buiter said.

Data accuracy
Some economists and investors have long questioned the accuracy of China's official growth data.The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month put China's first-half GDP growth rate at 6.3 per cent, compared with the official figure of 7 per cent.

The boom and bust in the Shanghai Composite Index, which more than doubled in about a year before a selloff erased $7 trillion in market value in two months, is raising questions about "the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy," Buiter said.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-g...
==============================================
Well, I don't know what questions are being raised, BUT there are certainly massive question marks over many issues & much of what Governments & CB's are doing, IS VERY QUESTIONABLE!

The facts are that the major drivers of Global Economic Growth are now going into Decline AND THERE IS NO WAY THAT ANY GOVERNMENT OR CENTRAL BANK CAN DO TO CHANGE THAT DIRECTION!

Those major Economic Drivers being -
1) Demographics
2) Energy
3) An almost Perfect Global Climate

So, Governments & C/B's are simply going to have to CHANGE THEIR STANDARD PRACTICE OF REQUIRING GROWTH & THEY WILL NOW HAVE TO ENSURE WE ALL LIVE WITHIN OUR MEANS!

In other words, THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS UNLIMITED GROWTH AND WE ARE NOW AT THE LIMITS OF MANY THINGS WHICH PREVIOUSLY DROVE GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH, SO WE MUST ALL NOW PULL OUR HEADS IN & THAT INCLUDES POLITICIANS, THE WEALTHY, BIG BUSINESS, UNIONS & THOSE WHO WOULD OTHERWISE LIVE OFF ENTITLEMENTS, TO WHICH THEY MAY NOT BE ENTITLED!

Oh & BTW, GIVEN THE CURRENT STATE OF PLAY, I WOULD SUGGEST A DOWN SESSION ON THE DOW, MAY BE QUITE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, IN CASE "SOMETHING" GETS THE WOBBLES OVER THE WEEKEND?!

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