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Politics, Economics & New Realities! (Read 32131 times)
Ex Dame Pansi
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #75 - Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?
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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....
 
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mariacostel
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #76 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm
 
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?


It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?
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Karnal
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #77 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:00pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?


It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?


Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession.

Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear?
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mariacostel
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #78 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:08pm
 
Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:00pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?


It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?


Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession.

Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear?


That's the economists definition too when there are in fact only two options: positive or negative growth. As to your question, take at look at my last statement and let's see if you can possibly work it out all on your own.
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Karnal
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #79 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:46pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:08pm:
Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 2:00pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?


It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?


Maria’s standard of economic growth refers to the lack of a recession.

Will you revise this formula when Labor return to government, dear?


That's the economists definition too when there are in fact only two options: positive or negative growth. As to your question, take at look at my last statement and let's see if you can possibly work it out all on your own.


The answer has to be no, dear. Only when we’re in recession can a government be criticised for low economic growth.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #80 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:01pm
 
mariacostel wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 1:55pm:
Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 11:04pm:
mariacostel wrote on Aug 28th, 2015 at 6:22pm:
Perceptions, you seem to say pretty much the same thing every post. You change the orders of the words a little, but once you've read one or two of your posts, the rest are the same: doom, gloom, persistent frustration. The one thing missing however, are facts.

I am sure you think you present facts, but you don't. You just present opinion along the lines of the people predicting global depression for the past 20 years and been wrong every year.



Actually, he doesn't.....it's just that you can't comprehend the written word very well.

Looking through rose coloured glasses won't save you when crunch time comes.

Can you see any meaningful economic growth anytime soon longy?


It may surprise you to learn that Australia IS in growth and has been for all but one quarter in the last 25 years. USA is in growth. UK is in growth. Most of Europe is in growth. So, apart from your apparent personal depression, where do you see significant absence of growth?


Australia GDP 1960-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/australia-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=aunagdp...

USA GDP 1948-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-states-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=gdp...

UK GDP 1956-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/united-kingdom-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=uk...

Euro GDP 1995-2015
http://cdn.tradingeconomics.com/charts/euro-area-gdp-growth-annual.png?s=eugnemu...

It may surprise you or it may not, to learn that the Economies of each of the countries/trading blocks you referred to are actually in a long term Growth Decline!

Whilst "official" Growth may still be showing, those figures are "somewhat" untrustworthy and even those reduced growth levels will disappear, over the years ahead, before going into an actual & long term Decline.

That said, the crux of what is happening is that Demographic & Energy Limits are now under great stress, the "goldilocks climate" is now disappearing & for those reasons the usual recover that inevitably followed past Economic downturns will not happen this time.

Or, as previously stated, "this time is different"!

You have a good long weekend now, ya hear! 
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Karnal
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #81 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:20pm
 
Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #82 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:46pm
 
Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:20pm:
Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths.


Well, I would suggest Longy's "belief system" is most likely stronger than his "Maths capacity". 
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Karnal
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #83 - Aug 29th, 2015 at 6:27pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:46pm:
Karnal wrote on Aug 29th, 2015 at 3:20pm:
Oh, if only Longy were here. He’d be able to sort this out, based on the maths.


Well, I would suggest Longy's "belief system" is most likely stronger than his "Maths capacity". 


I didn't know Longy had a belief system, Perceptions. Didn't he just support whatever Mr Abbott said?
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #84 - Oct 12th, 2015 at 1:05pm
 
I repost the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Oct 12th, 2015 at 12:58pm:
Forget Peak Oil - It's All About Peak Population Growth


Summary
Global annual population growth peaked in 1988 and is decelerating.

Global annual population growth is estimated to be back to 1950 levels by 2050 but the bulk of "growth" will be among 65+ year olds living longer...not greater births.

Substituting lower interest rates and encouraging more debt for declining population growth (consumption) was and is a tragic error by our central bankers.

The idea that global population growth will perpetually drive increasing demand for food, natural resources, real estate, consumer goods, and global trade is a common theme.
This idea of ever greater demand drives most investors thinking and actions.
The premise the world currently operates under is that demand (consumption) will grow driven by population increases coupled with wage increases and be magnified by access to credit.
The resultant growth will allow rapidly growing debt to be serviced / paid by even more rapidly growing global trade.
But actually, this is mostly wrong now...and eventually entirely wrong. Why???

Global Population Growth Decelerating
According to OECD.stat, global annual population growth peaked in 1988 (chart below) at +93 million/yr and is now +81 million/yr despite the larger total global population. However, by 2050, OECD estimates that population growth will be the same as 100 years earlier (46 million/yr).

It is fair to say this is a "best case" scenario for population growth and if global economic activity continues to "underperform" consensus expectations...population growth will also underperform the below expectations. They will mutually negatively impact one another (as they did positively on the way up) and a vicious cycle well underway.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-144411468...

Today's Population Growth is Old Living Longer...Not More Babies
This is a death dearth...not a baby boom.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/7/40246456-144423752...
However, like a tsunami rolling across the ocean from its epicenter (industrialism), peak populations will hit different nations at different times and with varying severity. Japan, Germany, Taiwan, China, S. Korea, US and almost all the EU nations are already decades into this process while Brazil and India are midstream and Africa has really only just begun.

Advanced OECD Economies
Among the advanced economies of the OECD, population growth of the young ended long ago.
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/5/40246456-144407318...

Declining Numbers of Young will Suffer Higher Unemployment due to ongoing Productivity & Innovation

Conclusion
Global young and core population growth is rapidly decelerating and growth of 65+yr/old populations is rapidly increasing. In individual nations (US chart below), as core growth decelerates or goes negative and is replaced by growth among the old, oil consumption declines and economic activity decelerates..
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-144415268...

In response to decelerating demand, interest rate cuts and debt are substituted for the decelerating growth (US FFR and debt responding to changing core growth, below).
https://staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/uploads/2015/10/6/40246456-144415277...

Decelerating global population growth, particularly among the young, highlights why the central bank prescription of ever lower rates incentivizing ever more debt to be serviced by a flat to declining young population is such tragic folly. The Fed has simply (and quite wrongly) been fighting demographic changes to the US core with FFR cuts and resultant debt. The entirely predictable and foreseeable has come to pass, our economic and financial systems based on infinite growth have run into very finite population limits.

An entirely new mode of thought (based on the above facts rather than consensus fiction) and action are necessary to cope with the legacy issues we now face.
The sooner, the better. Preparing for a world of declining growth of demand / consumption will result in massive overcapacity, "challenges" for the overleveraged, and generally a stable or more likely shrinking pie.
As for investors, this changes everything!

http://seekingalpha.com/article/3556596-forget-peak-oil-its-all-about-peak-popul...
============================================
This article makes many very valid points, in line with what I have often said previously!

But, we can not forget about Oil, as we are now interlocked more than at any other time in history and issues such as Energy, Climate & Technology also impact on many things, as does Demographics!

So, if any Politician (from any Political Party) says that they can restore Economic Growth, you will know THEY HAVE NO UNDERSTANDING OF THE NEW/CURRENT ECONOMIC BASICS OR THEY ARE LYING!!!
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #85 - Oct 18th, 2015 at 12:26pm
 
I repost the following here, as it is relevant!

perceptions_now wrote on Oct 18th, 2015 at 12:25pm:
US wealth inequality - top 0.1% worth as much as the bottom 90%


Not since the Great Depression has wealth inequality in the US been so acute, new in-depth study finds.

Over the past three decades, the share of household wealth owned by the top 0.1% has increased from 7% to 22%. For the bottom 90% of families, a combination of rising debt, the collapse of the value of their assets during the financial crisis, and stagnant real wages have led to the erosion of wealth.

The share of wealth owned by the top 0.1% is almost the same as the bottom 90%.
http://static.guim.co.uk/ni/1415721490539/Wealth_line-chart.svg
The chart shows how the top 0.1% of families now own roughly the same share of wealth as the bottom 90%.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/nov/13/us-wealth-inequality-top-01-wort...
==============================================
The thing is that nothing goes on forever & there are limits to everything!

We are also now more interlocked than at any other time in modern Economic history!

All of which means, change must come or everyone will lose!

To start the ball rolling, the Politicians (all  of them) will have to put aside their own short term benefits & those of their supporters (Businesses, Unions, etc).

They will have to start ensuring that everyone pays their fair share of Taxes, which is not happening now, particularly for those at the top 10% of income earners/wealthy & for those large businesses, particularly Global Businesses AND they will have to roll back some of the Entitlements, particularly for those who don't need them!

We can no longer afford, the days of PLAYING Politics!

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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #86 - Nov 8th, 2015 at 7:49pm
 
Fiona Stanley, Royal Perth and Fremantle hospitals hardest hit in staff cuts


METROPOLITAN hospitals are bracing for massive staff cuts with the Health Department imposing “budget management strategies”.


Fiona Stanley, Royal Perth and Fremantle hospitals will be the worst hit, with the Health Services Union expecting about 500 jobs to be shed at Royal Perth and similar numbers at Fiona Stanley.

The union says its previous predictions of about 1000 job cuts “across the board” now appeared “conservative”
and it urged the department to “come clean”.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/fiona-stanley-royal-perth-and-fre...
==============================================
This story also appeared in the Perth Sunday Times today, along with a few other "interesting" articles.

One of the other articles noted a patient who was unwell last June & whose GP wrote an urgent referral to have his prostate look at.
What followed was -
A category one biopsy appointment dropped off the system.
An MRI took a whole year to be booked in.
An Oncology appointment wa also lost in the system.
The patient said, he "pushed every step of the way", But he got the complete run around!


In another article, a patient & his family found out about him having cancer, via a "letter in the post".

So, why are these issues worth writing about?
Well, the answer lays with our Aging Demographic society!
And, even with our Aging Demographics being a well known issue, which has been apparent for quite some time and that this would mean a dramatic increase in Health Costs, because of the ailments incurred by an Aging society, governments have not allowed for this obvious Cost increase.
In fact, in is apparent they (the Politicians) are now planning on "running down the health system", because they haven't allowed for these obvious costs in their planning!

And, burgeoning Health Cost increases are not the only thing, which neither Liberal nor Labor have planned for properly!   

This is NOT the time to Decrease Health Services/Workers (sack a 1,000 Health Workers), IT IS A TIME TO INCREASE, BECAUSE OF OUR AGING DEMOGRAPHICS!
This is a Political & Economic Reality!


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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #87 - Nov 9th, 2015 at 1:00pm
 
Demographics will have a powerful & ongoing influence over the issue perceptions.
But it's not the only factor.

1. And this will be scoffed at, but smarter organisation could see more resources (= funds) transferred out of administration into service delivery. If governments were willing and politically inclined to take a harder line with the public sector unions, management & clerical functions could be substantially slimmed down and medical/nursing functions expanded.

2. A better organisation of the primary health care resources would help.
At the moment still we see A & E facilities overburdened with cases that could adequately be dealt with by GPs if government was inspired enough to offer GPs more incentive for expanded hours.
It would imo be a hell of a lot cheaper to do this than run A & E 24 hours a day handing out pills for minor ailments.
Again this would free up hospital resources for their real job.
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Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.
 
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perceptions_now
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #88 - Nov 9th, 2015 at 1:10pm
 
bogarde73 wrote on Nov 9th, 2015 at 1:00pm:
Demographics will have a powerful & ongoing influence over the issue perceptions.
But it's not the only factor.

1. And this will be scoffed at, but smarter organisation could see more resources (= funds) transferred out of administration into service delivery. If governments were willing and politically inclined to take a harder line with the public sector unions, management & clerical functions could be substantially slimmed down and medical/nursing functions expanded.

2. A better organisation of the primary health care resources would help.
At the moment still we see A & E facilities overburdened with cases that could adequately be dealt with by GPs if government was inspired enough to offer GPs more incentive for expanded hours.
It would imo be a hell of a lot cheaper to do this than run A & E 24 hours a day handing out pills for minor ailments.
Again this would free up hospital resources for their real job.


Quite correct, there are other factors -

perceptions_now wrote on Feb 25th, 2014 at 9:15am:
perceptions_now wrote on Feb 23rd, 2014 at 4:24pm:
Just because Politicians say something, doesn't make it true.

In fact, usually the opposite is correct.

In this instance, it is the opposite that is true, as the Global basics will make the Growth "aim" impossible!

What Global Basics, you say, well -
1) Demographics have been the backstop of Economic Growth, for around 60-80 years, depending on which criteria is used and the Peaks & troughs of Demographics are usually reflected 50 years later.
So, 2014 is now set to reflect the fact that the Baby Boomer era ended in 1964, which means Demand will Decline, not increase, as the last Boomers now go into their final savings years & the bulk of Boomers actually enter their "spendthrift" Retirement years.
And, 2014 is also set for the Bust phase of the current & usual Economic Boom/Bust cycle.

2) Peak Energy has arrived, thus the cost of Energy & everything related to energy has been rising & will rise much more, thus eating greatly into the "Disposable income" of the vast majority of people, thus reducing Demand.

3) Global Debt is already at historic highs and moves must be made to start the long haul back!
Thus Taxes must increase, Tax loopholes must be closed & Expenditures must Decrease, in order to start down the Debt reduction path.
This also means that Demand will Decline, not increase!

4) Climate Change, irrespective of whether it is natural or man made, is causing many problems. It is driving up costs, it is set to deliver a Decline in Agricultural Production & in many areas a lack of rainfall will put restrictions on Population increases.
All of which will put a further Decline into Demand!

So, whilst our "friendly Pollies", of all shapes & sizes, from here & elsewhere & from all types of Political Party's may say they will "aim" for higher Growth, But the Reality is, based on Real Facts, they have as much chance of success in achieving their higher Growth  "aim", as does a Pig in trying to Fly, the Pig may try, but all that's going to happen is he will make the leap "of faith", then die, as he crashes to the ground!

Sorry, to be so blunt, But facts are facts and nothing any Polly will say, is going to make these facts go away!


Further to the Peak Energy issue -

Running on empty: Australia’s dependence on imported fossil fuels



Australia’s dependence on traditional and imported liquid fuel sources and transport technologies is putting our national security – and very way of life – at risk, a new study has found. Yet Australia continues to ignore alternative fuel strategies, that could include more renewable energy and electric vehicles.

An NRMA-commissioned report on the nation’s liquid fuel security, released on Monday, warns that Australia’s severely declining oil refining industry, and increasing demand for liquid fuels, could result in a scenario in 2030 where it has less than 20 days worth of fuel in reserve, and 100 per cent imported liquid fuel dependency.

Titled Australia’s Liquid Fuel Security, the report recommends a comprehensive, national response that addresses both demand and supply sides of the liquid fuel delivery chain, including increased focus on the technologies and energy sources used and alternative fuel supply.

“Waiting for a catastrophic failure before acting could result in damage to our security, our economy and our way of life. And the longer we wait to act, the fewer options we will have.”


Link -
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2014/running-on-empty-australias-dependence-on-import...
===========================================
The last sentence above, may ring a few bells, as that is pretty much what all of our Politicians have done, for the OZ Economy in general, over the last 40-50 years and now is the time "to reap what has been sown".

Oh & btw, Australia's own Oil Production has Decline some 50%, since the turn of the century and Production continues to slide!
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bogarde73
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Re: Politics, Economics & New Realities!
Reply #89 - Nov 9th, 2015 at 2:51pm
 
Agree with pretty much all of that except peak energy.

There are a lot of issues with oil I feel we don't really know about.
Why are the Saudis holding the oil price down at levels which (a) is going to see them run out of foreign reserves in a very few years and (b) is not going to see demand decrease? Does it only have to do with US shale?

How much undisclosed reserves do big oil and the Russians really have?

When you speak of peak energy, are you referring only to oil or do you factor in gas, coal and renewables, all of which form part of the picture.
But of course the big question for energy is climate change.
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Know the enemies of a civil society by their public behaviour, by their fraudulent claim to be liberal-progressive, by their propensity to lie and, above all, by their attachment to authoritarianism.
 
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