perceptions_now wrote on Sep 10
th, 2013 at 12:14am:
stryder wrote on Sep 9
th, 2013 at 11:20pm:
Boy perceptions, from what i gather you seem to think there is no right or wrong or even bad or good with how economies travel or go along ??
No, that would not be correct!
But, as it is getting late, I will have to come back to it, perhaps tomorrow!
The Rights & Wrongs of Economic Policy are not fixed in concrete, which is to say that what is Right at one time, at one point of the Usual Economic Cycle/s, will not necessarily be the Right Policy/s, at another time, at another point of the Usual Economic Cycle/s!
For example, High interest rates may be the way to go, given certain circumstances, but given other circumstances, Low rates may be the correct way to go.
In addition, individual Economies & indeed the Global Economy, have had their UPS & their DOWNS, their Good & Bad periods, as various Economies have "traveled along".
Also, in viewing the Economy/s of individual country/s, it should also be understood that any & all of those individual country/s can be & are affected by what is happening across the entire Global Economy, which is to say that outside influences can & do, have an affect!
However, the basic Global Economic direction has been one of Growth, for some 200 years. That is not to say that there has been all UPS & no DOWNS, during this period, because clearly there are events which push & pull in many directions, including sheer greed & self interest.
That said, there have been 4 underlying drivers behind the general upward trends, over the last 200 years.
Those 4 basic Global drivers being -
1) Population Growth - the largest Growth in human history & it has been the major driver of Demand Growth in the Global Economy!
2) Energy - Abundant Supply of (mainly) Fossil Fuels, at Cheap Prices, which has been one of the main enablers to continued Population Growth!
3) Technology - Astounding new technologies have regularly arisen, which have consistently boosted Productivity and therefore Technology has been the second great enabler, to continued Population & Economic Growth!
4) Climate - the last 200 years has largely been a Goldilocks Climate, which has also enabled Population Growth, as it provided almost perfect Food growing conditions!
So, the clear and unmistakable trend for some 200 years has been Economic Growth and thus most things Economic have proved to usually be Right & Good, albeit within the usual semi-standard Economic UPS & DOWNS cycle/s!
BUT, those standards, which have under-pinned events for some 200 years are now in a state of flux, a state of change, although many are either unaware of these changes or they are deliberately electing to turn a blind eye or they are simply "living in hopium" that the cavalry will come ride to their rescue, at the last moment!
That said, the fact is that the greatest Economic driver, being Population Growth, has been slowing for some time, as it approaches natural limits & as the largest generation in human history (the Baby Boomers) now enters its twilight years.
The fact is, at least 2 of the 3 great Population enablers, Energy & Climate, have turned South, they are no longer assisting Population Growth, they are directly hindering & slowing Growth, prior to that Growth disappearing altogether & a real Decline setting in, for what will be a lengthy period, over which the Global Population will drop from around 7.5-8.0 Billion, down to around 2 Billion, within 100 years or so.
So, whilst we have had some 200 years or so, where the clear and unmistakable trend has been Economic Growth and thus most things Economic have proved to usually be Right & Good, we are now moving into the shadows, into the dark side, where those trends will first slow, then go into Reverse, as the Global Economy goes Wrong or Bad.
In fact, there is very little that can now be done to rectify this situation, to restore the status quo, with the exception of some completely unknown Technology riding over the hill, to our rescue, at the very last moment and I would strongly recommend against "using hopium", which is the drug of last resort and using that in place of good Public policy.
If we are to avoid the worst of the likely Global Economic downturn, then we need to start employing REAL CO-OPERATION, REAL POLITICAL BI-PARTISAN CO-OPERATION & we will all need to share the pain equally, in each country & Globally OR IT WILL ALL TURN TO SH!T & it will do so, quickly!
I don't think that was what you were wanting to hear, but there you have it, the Rights, the Wrongs, the Good, the Bad & the Ugly?
The thing is, that the usual Economic Keynesian & Austrian Fixes, of modern Economics will no longer work, because they assumed that Population Growth would always under-pin Economic Growth AND THAT IS SIMPLY NO LONGER GOING TO HAPPEN.
So, we will now see many events happen, for which there is simply no easy fix AND THERE WILL BE NO RETURN TO THE PAST ECONOMIC STATUS QUO!
Good luck, we will all need it!
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