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Question: SPIN or REALITY



« Created by: perceptions_now on: Aug 26th, 2013 at 4:54pm »

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Political SPIN & Reality (Read 26983 times)
perceptions_now
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #195 - Nov 24th, 2013 at 11:55am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Nov 24th, 2013 at 11:53am:
China Announces That It Is Going To Stop Stockpiling U.S. Dollars


China just dropped an absolute bombshell, but it was almost entirely ignored by the mainstream media in the United States. The central bank of China has decided that it is "no longer in China’s favor to accumulate foreign-exchange reserves".

During the third quarter of 2013, China's foreign-exchange reserves were valued at approximately $3.66 trillion. And of course the biggest chunk of that was made up of U.S. dollars.

But now China has announced that the time has come for it to stop stockpiling U.S. dollars. And if that does indeed turn out to be the case, than many U.S. analysts are suggesting that China could also soon stop buying any more U.S. debt. Needless to say, all of this would be very bad for the United States.

For years, China has been systematically propping up the value of the U.S. dollar and keeping the value of the yuan artificially low.

This has resulted in a massive flood of super cheap products from across the Pacific that U.S. consumers have been eagerly gobbling up.

Thanks to the massively unbalanced trade that we have had with China, tens of thousands of our businesses, millions of our jobs and trillions of our dollars have left this country and gone over to China.

Neither Yi nor Zhou gave a time frame for any changes.

It isn't going to happen overnight, but the value of the U.S. dollar is going to start to go down, and all of that cheap stuff that you are used to buying at Wal-Mart and the dollar store is going to become a lot more expensive.

But of even more importance is what this latest move by China could mean for U.S. government debt. As most Americans have heard, we are heavily dependent on foreign nations such as China lending us money. Right now, China owns nearly 1.3 trillion dollars of our debt.

"Together, with the Federal Reserve tapering its bond purchases, it has the potential to add to the bearish long-term outlook on U.S. Treasurys."

So who is going to buy all of our debt? That is a very good question. If the Federal Reserve starts tapering bond purchases and China quits buying our debt, who is going to fill the void?

If there is significantly less demand for government bonds, that will cause interest rates to rise dramatically. And if interest rates rise dramatically from where they are now, that will set off the kind of nightmare scenario that I keep talking about.


China accounts for more global trade that anyone else does, and they also own more of our debt than any other nation does. If China starts dumping our dollars and our debt, much of the rest of the planet would likely follow suit and we would be in for a world of hurt.

And just this week there was another major announcement which indicates that China is getting ready to make a major move against the U.S. dollar. According to Reuters, crude oil futures may soon be priced in yuan on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

China, which overtook the United States as the world's top oil importer in September, hopes the contract will become a benchmark in Asia and has said it would allow foreign investors to trade in the contract without setting up a local subsidiary.

If that actually happens, that will be absolutely huge.

The world is changing, and most Americans have absolutely no idea what this is going to mean for them.As demand for the U.S. dollar and U.S. debt goes down, the things that we buy at the store will cost a lot more, our standard of living will go down and it will become a lot more expensive for everyone (including the U.S. government) to borrow money.


The years ahead are going to be very challenging, and so I hope that you are getting ready for them.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1857411-china-announces-that-it-is-going-to-stop...
=========================================
In fact, the Chinese have already effectively assumed this position several years, as indicated in the following chart  -
http://www.nowandfutures.com/images/tic_major_holders.png

What is now changing is that they are becoming a little more Public, a little more overt and that is perhaps because there is now more backing for that stance, coming from the likes of Russia, some of the Oil Producing nations & a few others, But also because of the "ongoing" nature of the US "Monetizing" their own Debt, via the US FedRes buying US Treasury Debt, which it has done by "magically" printing money out of "thin air".

As I have said previously, "for all actions & in-actions, there are Consequences" and although the US Politicians may not have thought so, I can assure them, the will be Consequences!


As suggested in the article, the world is changing, But most US citizens & indeed people in OZ & throughout the world, have no idea what's going on, nor how it will affect them.
That said, the years ahead will indeed be very challenging!


As to timing, that is still an unknown, But the next few years will most likely see a lot of turmoil!



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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #196 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 4:46am
 


And on that note, the Democratic Party was on a binge lying spree before the election so Democratic Party got elected in 2012.  And the moron conservatives didn't vote, because they're morons.  Grin  Our justice system is broken, because the 17th amendment gives justices lifetime terms with no term limits.
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perceptions_now
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #197 - Nov 29th, 2013 at 7:21am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Nov 28th, 2013 at 11:50pm:
Growth In History: Yes, We Should Be Worried


It is time America stopped talking about the recovery and started worrying about the economy.   As the four-year anniversary since the economy last shrank approaches, we should focus on its subpar growth.  It is time to ask what impact government has had on the economy over the short- and long-term.

America’s economy has not shrunk since Q2 of 2009.  Yet, if the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates of just 1.4% real GDP growth this year prove true, America will have experienced its worst four consecutive growth years of GDP in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ data going back to 1930.


Looking at the economy in 10-year increments starting from 1948 (when declines from wartime spending had ended), averaging GDP’s annual growth percentage shows the following:

    1948-57: 3.80%
    1958-67: 4.28%
    1968-77: 3.18%
    1978-87: 3.15%
    1988-97: 3.05%
    1998-2007: 2.99%
    2008-2013: 0.73%

What we have seen over the last four years is unlike anything during the last seven decades.  Such a dramatic break with the past, begs the question: Why?  Does the financial crisis alone account for what we are seeing? For four years, we have sought to convince ourselves it does. Perhaps it is finally time we looked harder to see if the problem runs deeper.

There has been a concerted government effort to compensate for the recent crisis – through tax cuts, “stimulative” spending and historically low interest rates. It is therefore natural to look at government actions over the last seven decades.

Interestingly, taxes as a percentage of GDP do not show the great discrepancy that might be expected.  In 1948, federal revenue equaled 16.2% of GDP. 
Under CBO’s estimate, taxes will equal 16.9% of GDP this year.  Nor have they been high during the post-crisis period: 15.4% in 2011, 15.1% in 2010 and 2009, and 17.6% in 2008.
All of these are below CBO’s calculated 40-year average of roughly 17.9%.


However, federal spending has been an entirely different story.  In 1948, federal outlays equaled 11.6% of GDP.
CBO estimates that they will equal 22.2% in 2013
– almost doubled.  And they have been far higher of late:
22.8% in 2012, 24.1% in 2011 and 2010, 25.2% in 2009, and 20.8% in 2008.
  In 2007, prior to the crisis, they were 19.7% and CBO calculates their 40-year average at 21% – all far higher than their 1948 level.


At the same time government spending has increased as a share of the economy, private sector activity has necessarily declined in proportion.  While this has been obviously true during the current post-crisis period, the longer-term effect, while more gradual, is equally clear.

Yet in both cases, the economy has hardly responded in a commensurately positive manner.  Despite enormous government intervention in the near-term, we are witnessing dramatically subpar growth.


Since 2008, federal debt held by the public has more than doubled – from $5.8 trillion to an estimated $12.2 trillion in 2013.
While it’s full negative impact is unfelt, because of historically low interest rates, once interest rates return to normal levels, this doubled debt will have a decidedly negative economic impact, as private sector investment is squeezed.


Government was supposed to play a compensating role to the economic downturn in the post-crisis period.  Yet after the worst four years of economic growth in decades, has not the time come when we can at least raise the question whether it has done so?

Regardless how we are predisposed to answer these questions, there are inescapable facts in both the short- and long-term growth figures.  Something is very different, and seemingly very wrong.


Link -
http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/04/12/the-worst-four-years-of-gdp-grow...
==========================================
A few observations -
1) The article observes that despite massive increases in US Government Debt, the US is still experiencing Economic Growth, which is still well below the usual since 1948.
I would also posit that the US has also been stimulated by some $4 Trillion, which has been "magically summoned" by the FedRes.
However, notwithstanding all of this Economic stimulation, the US is still only barely growing and that Growth is well below historical Growth rates, since WW2.
SO, THE OTHER QUESTIONS WHICH MUST ALSO BE ASKED ARE WHAT WOULD US ECONOMIC GROWTH HAVE BEEN, IF THESE MASSIVE SIMULATIONS HAD NOT TAKEN PLACE & WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE STIMULATION STOPS, WHICH IT MUST?

2) The other major issue is, IF SOMETHING IS INDEED VERY DIFFERENT AND SEEMINGLY WRONG, THEN WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING?
And, as I have said previously, Yes something is indeed very different and those major differences are -
a) Demographics
b) Energy
c) Climate

And, none of this can possibly validate the reasoning for the increases in the US DOW, which has more than doubled, since early 2009.

Interactive chart -

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI+Interactive#symbol=^dji;range=my;compare...
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perceptions_now
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #198 - Dec 2nd, 2013 at 6:45pm
 
Little Accuracy In Economic Predictions


I have yet to see a model of the economy which can project future dynamics including accurate projections of productivity, employment, inflation, earnings, peak anything, bubbles, social changes, wars, et al.

Economic models use existing trends and extrapolate to forecast. The surprise in the punch bowl is that economic dynamics are not fixed, and dynamics which align to make an economy flourish in one time period can combine with additional "evil" forces sometime in the future to work against the economy. Take the baby boomers for instance.

Economists saw the acceleration of the economic growth of the late 20th century - and projected this growth into the future. The Great Recession of 2007 might be considered the economic reset from a multi-decade period of high economic growth to a "new normal" of relatively bland economic growth.
One of the main contributors to this reset was the baby boomers
(a population distortion caused by the end of World War II). The economic argument is that young people starting out in life consume more as they start a family and then work their way to a peak in their career path.


As people age, they begin to see retirement - and as people near retirement, they start to squirrel away assets and money to have more spending power available in retirement. When one retires, less funds are available - so spending is less.

It follows then that increased economic growth can triggered by a slug of young entering the workforce (aka boomers beginning in the late 1960s). The 21st century boomers are not spending like they did at the beginning of their working lives - and the economy is reverting to mean that existed in the late 50s and early 60s after the economic distortions of rebuilding the world healed after World War II.

What I find interesting is the declining birth rate leading into the Great Depression of 1929.
...

It might be argued that the great birthrate cascade from the beginning of the 20th century to the middle of the 1930s was interrupted by the baby boom and what we have seen in recent decades is simply a continuation to a new bottom in the birth rate. This new bottom has not seen "rescue" and "recovery" such as provided by the baby boom.

Link -
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1869511-little-accuracy-in-economic-predictions?...
==========================================
With all of the resources available to government & TPTB, let no one tell you, that the effects of Demographics on the National & Global Economy has just now been realized!

Let no one tell you, that "suddenly" the massive effects on government expenditure has just come to light & only now, has it been realized that these Expenditures are not affordable!

Let no one tell you these things, because they have all been apparent or should have been, for decades, to anyone taking a serious look at where likely trends would take us.

So, the real truth is that, THE TRUTH OF DEMOGRAPHICS, OF ENERGY SUPPLY PROBLEMS, OF CLIMATE RELATED ISSUES & OF THE IMPACT THAT THESE & INSUFFICIENT INCOME STREAMS WOULD HAVE ON DEBT HAS BEEN KNOWN FOR 40 FORTY YEARS OR MORE, BUT THOSE IN GOVERNMENTS (OF ALL SORTS) AND OF TPTB HAVE SIMPLY IGNORED KNOWN FACTS, BECAUSE IT DIDN'T SUIT THEIR SHORT TERM INTERESTS!

Well, they can't have their own way, all the time!!!   
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #199 - Dec 6th, 2013 at 11:42am
 
perceptions_now wrote on Dec 5th, 2013 at 8:23pm:
Maqqa wrote on Dec 5th, 2013 at 6:08pm:
Prior to 2007 - there was no debt ceiling

After Rudd came to power - through their mismanagement - decide to instal a debt ceiling of $150B

This debt ceiling was meant to assure the voters that Labor's mismanagement would not exceed $150B

$300B worth of Labor mismanagement later....

Now the LIBs discovered that we need close to $500B to actually fix Labor's stupidity

And Labor is somehow angry at this???


Like it or not, the Labor actions taken between 2007-2013, were basically correct according to standard Economic theory and that's pretty much what most countries did.

Like it or not, the actions currently being implemented by the Liberals, are basically correct according to standard Economic theory and at most times in the past those actions would have been correct.

Like it or not, both of the above actions have been largely rendered absolutely useless, by virtue of the inaction &/or inappropriate actions by Politicians over 40-60 years of actions!

Standard Economics & Politics that Batter, haven't worked so far AND THEY WON'T!
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #200 - Jun 3rd, 2015 at 12:21pm
 
perceptions_now wrote on Apr 15th, 2015 at 8:45pm:
In 1990, the RBA Cash Rate was as high as 17.50%.
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/cash-rate-1990-1996.html

In 1990, the Credit Card Rates, were around 20-21%.
http://publications.gc.ca/Collection-R/LoPBdP/MR/mr105-e.htm

In 2015, the current RBA Cash Rate is 2.25%.
http://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/cash-rate-2008-2015.html

In 2015, Credit Card Rates are still around 20%!
So, THE BIG QUESTION IS, WHY HAVE CREDIT CARD RATES REMAINED ABOUT THE SAME, WHILST THE RBA CASH RATE HAS DROPPED SOME 15.25, OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS?

AND, WHY HAVE BOTH THE LIBERALS & LABOR REMAINED SILENT, OVER THIS ISSUE?



perceptions_now wrote on Apr 22nd, 2015 at 6:41pm:
It has been said -
"For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".

Well, Well, Well, what about Oil then?

Date                  US Regular Gas Prices      Wti Oil Price
                 (per Gallon)                  (per Barrel)
28/12/1998            $0.914                  $11.31
27/12/1999            $1.263                  $26.02
25/12/2000            $1.388                  $28.40
31/12/2001            $1.096                  $19.31
30/12/2002            $1.417                  $29.44
29/12/2003            $1.454                  $32.12
27/12/2004            $1.754                  $43.23
26/12/2005            $2.188                  $59.41
25/12/2006            $2.303                  $59.25 (?)
31/12/2007            $3.028                  $91.36
Peak Oil Price, during July,2008           $147.00
28/07/2008            $3.896                  $133.38
29/12/2008            $1.590                  $41.44
23/02/2009            $1.868                  $39.15
28/12/2009            $2.564                  $74.49
27/12/2010            $3.015                  $89.22
26/12/2011            $3.213                  $98.61
31/12/2012            $3.245                  $88.19
30/12/2013            $3.264                  $97.90
29/12/2014            $2.229                  $59.10
23/02/2015            $2.256                  $50.72         
30/03/2015            $2.348                  $47.78

US Regular Gas Prices
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=EMM_EPMRU_PTE_NUS_DPG&...
Wti Oil Prices
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-west-texas-intermedia...

Meanwhile in OZ, Petrol  Pricing was -

Peaked in July 2008 @ $1.67 per Litre
23/02/2015                  $1.24            
30/03/2015                  $1.34            
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/retail/ulp/index.htm
     
By way of observation -
In the USA, there is a 40% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.
In OZ, there is a 20% Decline in the Gasoline Price, between July 2008 & March 30 2015.

The question is WHY, such a significant difference & the answer may surprise some?
Remember, "For all Actions & In-Actions, there are Consequences".


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2008-09-18/petrol-prices-surge-despite-falling-oil-pr...

The above article confirms the price of unleaded fuel at some Perth service stations went to $1.60 a litre, in September 2008, shortly after the Price of Oil hit $147, a barrel.

Well, Oil went down to around $43 a barrel & is now at $61, which is still some 60% lower than its 2008 high, BUT PETROL IS TODAY AT $147.9 IN MANY PERTH PETROL STATIONS, which is a whole 7.5% lower than what it was in 2008!


So, with both Petrol & Credit Card rates, it would seem apparent THAT THE PUBLIC ARE BEING ROBBED BLIND, BUT THE POLITICIANS, WELL THE POLITICIANS HAVE VIRTUALLY SAID NOTHING!

It therefore needs to be asked, WHY ARE THESE POLITICIANS SILENT and I would suggest the answer may well be similar to what is happening in FIFA!!!

IN FINISHING, I DID SAY THE PUBLIC HAVE BEEN ROBBED & THE APPROPRIATE PENALTY FOR A THIEF, IS TIME INSIDE.

So, the BIG QUESTION IS, SHOULD SOME OF THE BANKSTERS, OIL HIERARCHY, POLITICIANS & PROBABLY A FEW OTHERS, BE GETTING "PLEASE EXPLAIN NOTES", FROM THE JUDICIAL SYSTEM & SHOULD THEY BE GIVEN A STRETCH INSIDE?  
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #201 - Jun 3rd, 2015 at 4:01pm
 
I noticed that the other day....petrol back up to just under $1.50 a litre and I was wondering when the oil price went up........but it hasn't, someone's robbing us again.

BOTR!!!!
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #202 - Jun 3rd, 2015 at 9:33pm
 
'Absolutely appalling': banks resisting interest rate fixing investigations, says ASIC


Appalling behaviour from Australia's biggest banks is frustrating an investigation into manipulation of the financial sector's benchmark interest rate, the chairman of the Australian Securities Investments Commission says.

Mr Medcraft added that ASIC was finding the banks in question "very defensive".

His comments came as some of Australia's largest financial institutions have been shamed by financial planning scandals, with Macquarie Bank subject to an enforceable undertaking, NAB under investigation and the Commonwealth Bank having the Australian Financial Services Licence of its financial planning business amended.

He said more companies should be aware of section 12.2 of the Commonwealth Criminal Code whereby "a company can be held responsible as an accessory for breach of certain Commonwealth laws by its employees if the company's culture encouraged or tolerated the breach".

http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/absolutely-appalling-banks-re...
======================================================
Where do OUR POLITICIANS STAND on such things?
Well, we don't really know, because they don't say!

So, WHAT SAY YOU ALL, is it time for LESS SPIN & MORE REALITY?
Is it time, FOR ALL POLITICIANS TO COME OUT & speak some Real Truths?
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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #203 - Jun 4th, 2015 at 3:19pm
 
So Swagi -
Are you still trying to SPIN the notion that it is a case of Mob Rule/Ochlocracy?

Or, is Reality finally starting to dawn, even on you?

The Reality is that TPTB are ones who are far worse at bending/breaking what should be Fair & Reasonable Rules for all!
The Reality is, if it's not Fair & Reasonable for all, then it will break down and everyone will lose!
Is that what you & they, really want???
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