Australian Politics Forum - Political SPIN & Reality

perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #75 - Aug 26^th, 2013 at 4:59pm

Maqqa wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:30am:

cods wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:21am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:06am:

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion..

bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy

why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

you see cods.....

PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert

A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions

PN can't do that

When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality

The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present

This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef

PN can't even boil water

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #76 - Aug 26^th, 2013 at 5:00pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:47am:

cods wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:21am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:06am:

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion..

bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy

why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

Unlike some others, I actually recognize that I don't have all the answers!

However, I suppose due to my financial sector background, much of which was in insurance, I developed a habit of asking LOTS OF QUESTIONS & DUE TO THAT I MAY TEND TO LOOK A LITTLE DEEPER AT THE WHAT, WHERE, HOW & WHY, of some issues, particularly on Economics?

As for "allowing others their opinion", isn't that what is happening, by me posting here & therefore raising the alternative/s for discussion. Of course, that doesn't mean, I will simply allow others to get away with posting things which I understand to be incorrect, particularly on Economic issues & particularly if these other individuals hold themselves out as being ExSpurts", when clearly they are not!

As for working for Treasury, why would I want to be constrained within that regime AND in any event, I AM RETIRED & ENJOYING BEING SO!

Oh & finally, this thread is meant to be a discussion on the New Realities of Politics & Economics, so I look forward to any comments relating to those actual issues
from yourself, Maqqa, Longy & anyone else.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #77 - Aug 26^th, 2013 at 5:01pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:51am:

Maqqa wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:30am:

cods wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:21am:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:06am:

As usual, those who purport to be Experts (yes - Maqqa & Longy) on Economics, are shown by their silence, to simply be people who formerly thought they were an Economics Exspurts, but who now understand that they are just a drips under pressure!

I take it you are the only expurt on economics on here then?????and nobody else is allowed an opinion..

bit of a ticket you have on yourself percy

why are you not working in treasury?? instead of just leaving the few on here to be amazed at your accuracy you are wasted surely?

you see cods.....

PN cuts and copy from Google searches and claims to be the expert

A truly knowledgeable person presents a discussion of concepts, it's application to reality and sprinkles facts into the discussion to back their assertions

PN can't do that

When PN tries - PN gets all muddled up between theory and reality. Muddle up between idealist textbook written decades in the past and the modern reality

The difference here between what longie and I present is far more better than what PN tries to present

This difference is comparable to the difference between a cook and a chef

PN can't even boil water

As I said Maqqa, I look forward to any comments relating to those actual issues
from yourself, Maqqa, Longy & anyone else.

As usual, your SPIN personal comments won't cut the mustard.

Of course, you could try to comment on the actual issues, although from your past tries, you won't get too far, as you have an apparent dose of NFI, when it comes to Economic issues!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #78 - Aug 26^th, 2013 at 5:01pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 25^th, 2013 at 11:09pm:

Mr Abbott said within a decade - after another three elections - the Budget surplus will be 1 per cent of GDP,
defence spending increased to 2 per cent of GDP, the private health insurance rebate fully restored but the Government would be a smaller percentage of the economy.

Link -
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-features/voters-urged-to-take-a-chance-...

That is very unlikely, for 2 major reasons -
1) The Economy is very unlikely to recover, given the Global collapse of Economic Drivers and it will most likely deteriorate faster due to the Liberals AUS-terity programs and therefore a Surplus would only occur, IF the OZ Economy was migrating to a much worse place than it is now!
2) Given the likely Economic deterioration, it is extremely unlikely that the Libs would win 2 elections in a row, let alone 3!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #79 - Aug 27^th, 2013 at 10:40am

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 9:16am:

After identifying almost $20bn in savings to be made from one of the most wasteful governments' in our history, Tony Abbott has said that this week will see more savings being made public and the full costings of Coalition policies released in the final week of the campaign...

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/breaking-news/savings-this-week-costings-n...

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #80 - Aug 27^th, 2013 at 10:41am

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 5:36pm:

It just isn't good enough!

Both the Liberals & Labor play similar games, every time an election is called, by leaving their costings until the last moment possible, THUS NOT GIVING SUFFICIENT TIME FOR ANY PROPER EVALUATIONS, LET ALONE PROPER CONSIDERATION BY THE PUBLIC!

And, almost as inevitably, both parties claim the other party "cooked the books" and SUDDENLY THE NEW PARTY TAKING OFFICE HAS NOW FOUND THE FINANCIAL POSITION IS MUCH WORSE THAN WAS THOUGHT!

Finally, they both "PLAY GAMES", by shifting election dates around to suit their own re-election chances!

IT'S TIME ALL THESE GAMES STOPPED & WE GOT -
1) Fixed Term elections, preferably every 4 years, on say the last Saturday in November!
2) Election Costings MUST BE SUBMITTED BY ALL POLITICAL PARTY'S, TO THE RELEVANT PUBLIC SERVICE BODY (PEFO), prior to the end of September for evaluation & PEFO MUST RELEASE THEIR FINDING PRIOR TO THE END OF OCTOBER!

No if's, no butt's, just do it, THERE IS NO LEGITIMATE EXCUSE, WHY ANY PARTY CAN NOT COMPLY!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #81 - Aug 27^th, 2013 at 12:23pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 8:57pm:

Swagman wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 8:15pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 8:09pm:

And then, the cost of the Retiring Boomers will be growing, including Pensions, Health & lower Superannuation bennfits than will be required will finally catch up, together with higher Energy Costs AND THAT'S WHEN THE PROVERBIAL WILL REALLY HIT THE FAN, thus overwhelming the jobs front

Just as well the Coalition risked all to bring in the GST.

A shrinking tax payer base was one of the critical reasons behind introducing a broad based tax system.

Damned pity Hewson's GST was butchered by Lefties in 1993. 20 years of 15% GST (50% more revenues) would have seen this country in a much better state.

Sad

You'd have had more dole in your pocket too Crook....your kind shot themselves in the foot...

Yes, somehow the election that couldn't be lost by the Libs, was lost!
Personally, I would suggest the GST MUST come back into consideration, as PART of a complete overhaul of Taxation, government Costs & the overall government structure!

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #82 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:21pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 7:39pm:

It is very likely that Unemployment will be on an upward trend & that will be the case under either Labor or Liberal.

It is also likely that, as in the USA & other countries, the Unemployment rate will be masked to some extent, due to the larger than usual & increasing number of people moving out of the workforce, thus "creating" jobs for others.

This "phenomenon" is, of course, due to the Retirement of the largest generation in human history, THE BABY BOOMERS.

As that process will continue for quite some time, it will mask the likely REAL Economic position, for a while, until the proverbial really hits the fan, over the next few years & then the real position will become more transparent, unfortunately.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #83 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:22pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 27^th, 2013 at 11:05am:

red baron wrote on Aug 27^th, 2013 at 6:56am:

Stand by for more acts of derring do by Kevin RUDD when h e got caught with his pants down at an early childhood centre photo opportunity.

So there he was talking in Mandarin and generally showing off then he asked a Chinese parent sitting next to him with his child about the centre.

Ohh whoops, it was a set up, the 'parent with child' answered that they didn't go there. Just another day in the snake oil, smokes and mirrors campaign that Labor runs.

RUDD desperately changed the subject.

I agree, it was most likely a set up & it just isn't good enough!

And, you know what, both the Liberals & Labor play similar games, particularly every time an election is called!

They all carry on, about "transperancy & honesty", BUT 99.9% OF ALL POLLIES HOLD DIFFERENT STANDARDS FOR THEMSELVES, THAN THEY DO FOR EVERYONE ELSE AND IT'S TIME ALL THESE GAMES STOPPED!

It's time that this sort of

C

redible

R

eliable

A

bundant

P

aradoxes
was dealt with on a similar line to how the ACCC is supposed to deal with "FALSE ADVERTISING".

Call for complaints to be registered & if proven, then THE INDIVIDUAL & THE PARTY SHOULD BE FINED & FINED HEAVILY!

FOR REPEAT &/OR SERIOUS OFFENCES, THE PENALTY/S SHOULD BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL, SUCH AS LOSS OF VOTES, LOSS OF SEATS, LOSS OF ELECTION!!!

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stryder

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #84 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:25pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:21pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 7:39pm:

It is very likely that Unemployment will be on an upward trend & that will be the case under either Labor or Liberal.

It is also likely that, as in the USA & other countries, the Unemployment rate will be masked to some extent, due to the larger than usual & increasing number of people moving out of the workforce, thus "creating" jobs for others.

This "phenomenon" is, of course, due to the Retirement of the largest generation in human history, THE BABY BOOMERS.

As that process will continue for quite some time, it will mask the likely REAL Economic position, for a while, until the proverbial really hits the fan, over the next few years & then the real position will become more transparent, unfortunately.

If that somehow comes to be true, you should change username to nostrodamus_now

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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #85 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:27pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 27^th, 2013 at 7:39pm:

As is often the case, this is far from simple!

Just to add to the complexity, I would suggest that the Baby Bonus should be viewed in concert with PPL.

In doing so, I would suggest doing away with the Baby Bonus completely, BUT retaining the PPL in a modest format only, perhaps something like the current arrangement.

The Economic imperative that was once the centre piece of most government/s planning was to increase Economic Growth, with Population increase & having more babies, being thought of as the easiest way of achieving those goals.

However, with Energy Supply likely to fall substantially over the decades ahead & prices rising, plus substantial Declines in Food & Fresh water Supply, we have to change our thinking on these issues, NOW!

Whilst families may still want children, although many will restrict the numbers or not have them at all, it must now remain in the province of those families to make their own decisions and to largely cater for their decision/s on child rearing, themselves.

That said, there still remains an imperative to retain as many female workers in the workforce as possible.

Therefore, some PPL will still be required, to try to get as many female workers thru the initial Baby phase, whilst keeping the family unit finances afloat, but also to incentivize them back into the workforce, as quickly as possible.

These and many other issues, should form part of a whole of government review, which should happen as soon as possible, irrespective of who wins this election!

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #86 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:31pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 11:55am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

I note all the austerity talk from lefties as if it's a bad thing

Facts are Austerity simply means spending less because the previous government had wasted sooooo much money

"Normally", Austerity programs are simply part of the ups & downs of the "Normal" Economic cycle, which have been a "Normal" part of Economics, for much of the last 200 years or so, of the Modern Economic Era!

However, this is not a "Normal" Economic cycle, owing to the prolonged impacts of Demographics, Energy Shortages/Price increases & Climate Change!

Therefore the "Normal" across the board Austerity programs are (think Europe)/would be (think Australia, the USA & elsewhere) absolutely the wrong thing, at absolutely the wrong time! Indeed, many of the "Normal" Economic fixes applied via both the Austrian & Keynesian Economic schools of thought, which have previously been successfully used, will now prove to be largely ineffective

That said, targeted change, to reduce expenses & primary consideration going to improving Productivity, is absolutely the correct thing, as this once in history combination of Economic drivers will continue to impact on us Locally & Globally, for decades to come.

WE NEED NEW APPROACHES/SOLUTIONS TO THESE PROBLEMS, WHICH ARE FAR FROM "NORMAL"!

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1372809408/16#16

Nice stuff perceptions, but from my experience economists mostly get there predictions wrong and most dont see economic catastrophes coming as clearly as they would like.

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« Last Edit: Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:39pm by stryder »

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RightSadFred Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 2220 Gender:	Re: Political SPIN & Reality Reply #87 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:53pm stryder Its like the joke about a psychic who claims he can see the future, you punch them in the nose and say " you didn't see that coming.
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perceptions_now

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #88 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:54pm

stryder wrote on Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:31pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 11:55am:

perceptions_now wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 3:02pm:

Maqqa wrote on Jul 6^th, 2013 at 2:23pm:

I note all the austerity talk from lefties as if it's a bad thing

Facts are Austerity simply means spending less because the previous government had wasted sooooo much money

"Normally", Austerity programs are simply part of the ups & downs of the "Normal" Economic cycle, which have been a "Normal" part of Economics, for much of the last 200 years or so, of the Modern Economic Era!

However, this is not a "Normal" Economic cycle, owing to the prolonged impacts of Demographics, Energy Shortages/Price increases & Climate Change!

Therefore the "Normal" across the board Austerity programs are (think Europe)/would be (think Australia, the USA & elsewhere) absolutely the wrong thing, at absolutely the wrong time! Indeed, many of the "Normal" Economic fixes applied via both the Austrian & Keynesian Economic schools of thought, which have previously been successfully used, will now prove to be largely ineffective

That said, targeted change, to reduce expenses & primary consideration going to improving Productivity, is absolutely the correct thing, as this once in history combination of Economic drivers will continue to impact on us Locally & Globally, for decades to come.

WE NEED NEW APPROACHES/SOLUTIONS TO THESE PROBLEMS, WHICH ARE FAR FROM "NORMAL"!

http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1372809408/16#16

Nice stuff perceptions, but from my experience economists mostly get there predictions wrong and most dont see economic catastrophes coming as clearly.

Agreed, particularly with their Public pronouncements!

Most economists, including both Private & Government, are restricted in what they say Publicly, as even those who think things may not be headed in a "good direction" can not openly say so, because if they do it could well end up being a self-fulfilling prophecy?

That said, many of those same Economists wouldn't have been too far wrong, during most time frames leading up to around 2005, BUT AFTER THAT IS WHEN THE COMBINED CHANGES TO DEMOGRAPHICS & ENERGY SUPPLY/PRICING IN PARTICULAR REALLY STARTED TO KICK IN, GLOBALLY.

So from around 2005, I wouldn't have anywhere near the usual regard, for most of the Economists, irrespective whether they were/are in Private industry or whether they are resident government Guru's, because they are still mainly looking at past trends, not what current change to the major Economic Drivers is doing now, nor what impact those changes will have in the future!

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stryder

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Re: Political SPIN & Reality
Reply #89 - Aug 29^th, 2013 at 7:59pm

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 26^th, 2013 at 11:43am:

All will become apparent & transparent, IF THERE IS LESS SPIN & MORE REALITY.
Anyone, with other prime examples of SPIN (for any Political Party) &/or REALITY, PLEASE POST THEM HERE!

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 7:15pm:

adelcrow wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 6:30pm:

Hockey has again been caught out using net debt figures when referring to the Coalitions past budgets and gross debt when referring to Labors budgets.

Yep ..just what we need... another mean and tricky Coalition govt Grin

Ah, that's what I was referring to here -

perceptions_now wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 4:04pm:

crocodile wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 2:03pm:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Aug 20^th, 2013 at 9:00am:

# wrote on Aug 17^th, 2013 at 3:21pm:

Maqqa wrote on Aug 17^th, 2013 at 3:19pm:

Debt under LIBs = ZERO

Debt under ALP = $300B

GFC

You've made the rather common mistake of comparing gross debt to net debt. The coalition never had gross debt below zero. The lowest gross debt was end of 2006 at around 50 bil.

Net debt was negative as claimed. If you want to compare debts then you really should either compare net with net or gross with gross. As of today, government net debt is around 180 bil.

It ended years ago. Why not blame the Great Depression too??? Roll Eyes

Gross Debt is/was, as follows -
Date (30 June) Gross Debt ($ millions)
2007 58,284
2008 60,462
2009 101,147
2010 147,133
2011 191,291
2012 233,976
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_national_debt

The Net Debt situation, from 1970-now can be found at the following site -
http://www.budget.gov.au/2012-13/content/myefo/html/13_appendix_d.htm
As can be seen, the Libs picked up a Net Debt on taking office in 1996, which Peaked at some $96 Billion, they then converted that into a Net Credit of $45 Billion on leaving office in 2007 ,just as the GFC was getting under way.
The last figures, on this article, shows Labor going back to a Net Debt of around $144 Billion at the end of June 2012.
It is also worth noting that Net Debt rose initially when Hawke/Keating won office in 1983. It then fell back to more usual levels, before rising again, which co-incided with the Economic slowdown of the early to mid 1990's.

It should also be noted that Hockey actually went urther than Maqqa, by claiming Zero Debt when the Libs left office & that Labor would leave a $400 Billion Debt on leaving office. Given the above, it would seem both Maqqa & Joe have used the Libs Net Debt on leaving office AND both have used the Gross Labor Debt, with Maqqa maybe using an estimate for the end of June 2014 & Joe perhaps using a forward estimate guestimate for 2017???

Woooow, so youre saying that we inherited a 60 billion dollar debt from the Howard/Costello stewardship ???? is that really correct perceptions ???

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« Last Edit: Aug 29^th, 2013 at 8:08pm by stryder »

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Question: SPIN or REALITY
I am for SPIN I am into REALITY « Created by: perceptions_now on: Aug 26^th, 2013 at 4:54pm »