14% in the HofR and 16% in the senate

Labor gains ground on Coalition, says new mobile-only poll

Labor has gained ground in the final week of the campaign but the Coalition remains set to win Saturday’s election with 50.8% of the two party preferred vote to Labor’s 49.2%.

A Guardian Lonergan mobile-only poll, taken primarily on Thursday night as the Coalition finally released its policy costings and was forced to backflip on its originally-released internet-filter policy, showed a higher vote for the Greens and “others” flowing through to the Labor party’s two party preferred vote after the distribution of preferences.

The poll of 862 voters found the Coalition’s primary vote had fallen from its early campaign high to 42%, the Labor party’s rising slightly to 34%, a rise in the Greens’ House of Representatives vote to 14% and “others” to 10%.

The poll indicated a potentially higher vote for the Greens (at 16%) in the Senate, where “others” polled at 8%, Labor at 29% and the Coalition at 40%.

Lonergan research chief executive Chris Lonergan cautioned that in previous elections “the actual Senate vote has tended to differ from the self-reported voting intention figures in polling, possibly because it is very difficult to convey the complexity of a Senate voting form over the telephone”.

But he said based on these poll results he expected to see a strong result for the Greens and the minor parties in the Senate.

The poll shows a slightly better lower house result for Labor in two party preferred terms than three other final-week polls already released, largely due to the higher recorded primary vote for the Greens. Both Galaxy and Reachtel polls showed the Coalition leading 53% to 47% in two party preferred terms and an Essential poll showed the Coalition with a 52% to 48% lead.

“The fact that this is a mobile-only poll is very significant,” Lonergan said.

“We know a growing proportion of Australians do not have a landline at all, and many more Australians rarely or never answer a landline call – yet almost all Australians carry a mobile phone. We believe that a mobile-only poll is the most accurate means of measuring the views of Australians in 2013.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/06/two-party-preferred-vote-narrows

51/49 or 52/48 is about what I expect.

The senate won't fall to Tony though - 2004 taught people to vote for other parties.

It would be funny if they didn't win though - I'm expecting them too, but I would laugh my arse off if there was another hung parliament/voters went to the minor parties instead.

It'll be interesting to see how the minors do.

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 4:53pm:

They will need a job in the mines to keep up their lavish lifestyles after the election.

mobile-only phone aka phoning the young.

funny how this poll is WIDELY variant to all the other polls.

I guess Bob Ellis will be trumpeting this poll shortly if not already and how it 'proves' newpoll is criminal.

____ wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 5:02pm:


I had a mobile phone from its very earliest analogue 'brick' days.

but this poll is at massive variance to all others.  Doesn't concern you?  Of course not.

Personally I am waiting for your long-awaited threads on how Abbott is losing and how the Greens hope to form govt or how Labor are winning etc.

you are a classic.  Dead wrong on everything!

____ wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 5:02pm:

woo hooo. We have a new type of polling we can rely on, even before it gives us reliable results. Woo hoo, love terchnology for that. 

____ wrote on Sep 6^th, 2013 at 4:51pm:



greens as insurance.    .  giving the greens the job of looking after our interests

thats like making thommo security at a brothel
or putting peter slipper in charge of cleaning the showers at a boys high school
or giving eddie obeid a job at the council doing mining lease applications.