Karnal wrote on Sep 7
th, 2013 at 6:52pm:
They won’t get the senate, which means no axe the tax. They won’t balance the budget, which means no back in the black. They’re not going to find a lot of public service fat to trim, so they won’t end the Labor waste.
Not a lot of Labor waste really. A lot of what gets labelled as "waste" is driven by ideological differences.
Quote:In fact, they’ve announced HUGE spending on middle-class welfare, so they’ll create waste of their own.
Fortunately, the Senate will keep them in check. The maternity leave plan will not get through the Senate unchanged. The crossbenchers - current (Madigan), likely to be re-elected (Xenophon) and a chance to be elected (PUP and KAP) are all on record as stating that the plan is too generous. The consensus among these crossbenchers is that more money should be invested in childcare, which is a reasonable proposition. There's no point having kids if the childcare is too expensive after the 6 months are up.
Quote:The incoming government has tied its own noose. If there’s a budget emergency now, what’s it going to be like in a couple of years time?
They will bring in numerous cuts under the cloak of the so-called "Commission of Audit", none of which will have a legitimate mandate (yet Abbott will try to claim them as such). If this comes to pass, expect as much grassroots agitation against some specific measures as the astroturfing over the carbon tax - and with the same result.
Quote:Abbott has been an excellent opposition leader, but he’s now in exactly the same position as Labor, and committed to spending much more.
Abbott has been a good opposition leader, but with a few weaknesses that will become apparent as PM, the aversion to scrutiny and unscripted questions being the most notable. Leaders that avoid scrutiny do not last long. Baillieu did the same in Victoria. He's already gone after 2+1/2 years.
Quote:There won’t be a double dissolution election for 3 years, and in that time, Abbott won’t be making a lot of friends - outside News Ltd.
Abbott has already stated that there may be a double dissolution election if he does not get his way. With the Senate, the carbon price won't be removed before July next year - the Greens will probably lose the balance of power, and the crossbenchers tend to support its removal. The mining tax will stay even with a new senate because the crossbench senators support it.
He's going to be awfully tempted to pull the trigger, but only if his "honeymoon" has not ended by then.
Quote:He won’t be popular, but I don’t think he’ll be all that unpopular. All he’s promised is more of the same.
If he's promised "more of the same" he won't be popular. He's got to change his approach, as the traits that make him a good opposition leader do not make a good prime minister. Will he be up to it? Only time will tell.
Quote:There won’t be a spill in favour of Turnbull. The Libs have learned from the last 6 years. How could you not learn?
Probably, though history shows that of two dozen prime ministers only four have both come to power and left power at the ballot box (opposition to government to opposition).
Quote:People will give Abbott a go because they have very low expectations - and Abbott won’t let them down.
True, though Abbott's got to lift his game as Prime Minister. He cannot evade scrutiny forever. Question Time will be interesting. It's on the cards that the ALP will grill him, Pyne and Brough for two solid weeks about the Ashby affair at some point.
Quote:We are now in a period of low growth, increasing unemployment, and if I’m not mistaken, the beginning of massive increases in temperature and environmental problems.
Governments tend not to last long if the economy goes bad. If a recession does happen in Australia in the next three years, the next Federal election will certainly swing to the ALP. The last one-term Federal government was an ALP government that had the bad luck to come to power only a few weeks before the stock market crash of 1929.
This doesn't mean it won't happen, but the sharp rise in unemployment in Queensland since the Newman government gained power should not be ignored.
Quote:Abbott will need to go back on everything he’s said over the last 4 years, or be the wrong man in the wrong job.
We’ll see.
Yes we will. Strap yourself in, the period before the next election will be an interesting ride. If you expect an Abbott government to behave, you'll be disappointed.
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