Australian Politics Forum - Most Interesting seat?

True Blue... Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3748 Gender:	Re: Most Interesting seat? Reply #15 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:51pm Bobby. wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:45pm: What about the seat of Bruce - will Labor hold it? too close to call.. Labor just ahead
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Aussie

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #16 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:52pm

Quote:

COUNT UPDATE 7.40PM: Clive Palmer is less than 10% behind Ted O'Brien on first preferences.

The Palmer United Party leader is sitting second with 29.20% of the vote with 41.43% of the vote counted.

LNP candidate Mr O'Brien is leading with 38.55% of the vote.

>> VIRTUAL TALLY ROOM RESULTS FOR FAIRFAX HERE

It's a swing of 9.79% against the party.

If those figures hold, and preferences do not leak too much, Palmer will win.

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Most Interesting seat? Reply #17 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:52pm ...WILL Julian Assange pinch a senate seat? that will liven up debate in parliament (and his extradition plans)
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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Most Interesting seat? Reply #18 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:53pm True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:23pm: cods wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:21pm: seems like Qld has all the loonies.... I dunno.. Labor may lose every seat in QLD Won't happen. The ALP vote is holding up reasonably well in Queensland.
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Bobby. Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 106765 Melbourne Gender:	Re: Most Interesting seat? Reply #19 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:55pm True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:51pm: Bobby. wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:45pm: What about the seat of Bruce - will Labor hold it? too close to call.. Labor just ahead OK thanks It was a fairly safe labor seat This is a wipeout.
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True Blue...

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #20 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:58pm

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:53pm:

True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:23pm:

cods wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:21pm:

seems like Qld has all the loonies....

I dunno.. Labor may lose every seat in QLD

Won't happen. The ALP vote is holding up reasonably well in Queensland.

yes they are... its not going to be as bad as some predicted... Rudd will hold.. swan will hold... and a few others..

at the end of the day if rudd gets 50 seats or perhaps more.. he's done the job... he's saved the furniture.. as they say..

under Gillard... they would have been lucky to sayve 35 seats...

Labor have collected 32 seats already after less than 10% of the vote counted...

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John Smith

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #21 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:00pm

True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:58pm:

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 7:53pm:

True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:23pm:

cods wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:21pm:

seems like Qld has all the loonies....

I dunno.. Labor may lose every seat in QLD

Won't happen. The ALP vote is holding up reasonably well in Queensland.

yes they are... its not going to be as bad as some predicted... Rudd will hold.. swan will hold... and a few others..

at the end of the day if rudd gets 50 seats or perhaps more.. he's done the job... he's saved the furniture.. as they say..

under Gillard... they would have been lucky to sayve 35 seats...

Labor have collected 32 seats already after less than 10% of the vote counted...

He's already at 50 ... he'll probably end up with about 56

http://vtr.aec.gov.au/

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Bam

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #22 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:00pm

True Colours wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:14pm:

I am looking forward to seeing whether Mirabella can hold onto her of Indi.

Lindsay, Forde, Greenway, Fischer and Melbourne will also be interesting.

A good selection of seats. Denison (Wilkie, IND - Tas) is interesting too.

Mirabella looks to be in some trouble in Indi. A bit over a 40% primary and all other major candidates directing preferences against her. She's gone. Good riddance to a bad Liberal candidate.

Bandt is a chance to retain Melbourne.

Wilkie will retain Dension.

Fisher will be won by Brough. The question is though, how many times will the people of Fisher go to the polls in the next four years?

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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 38853 Gender:	Re: Most Interesting seat? Reply #23 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:07pm Fairfax will be Clive's!
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Bam

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #24 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:09pm

We should have listed Fairfax as well. This is the seat that Palmer is contesting. It could come down to the order in which candidates are eliminated. Palmer is leading the LNP and ALP. ALP + Greens is roughly equal to PUP.

If the ALP candidate is eliminated first, Palmer wins against the LNP.
If Palmer is eliminated before the ALP, The LNP wins against the ALP.

It could come down to recounts. Watch this seat.

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Aussie

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #25 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:27pm

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:09pm:

We should have listed Fairfax as well. This is the seat that Palmer is contesting. It could come down to the order in which candidates are eliminated. Palmer is leading the LNP and ALP. ALP + Greens is roughly equal to PUP.

If the ALP candidate is eliminated first, Palmer wins against the LNP.
If Palmer is eliminated before the ALP, The LNP wins against the ALP.

It could come down to recounts. Watch this seat.

All Palmer has to do is come second in the primary vote, and he is shitting that in. The preferences of all other candidates (other than LNP of course) will filter through to him.

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Bam

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #26 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:40pm

Aussie wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:09pm:

We should have listed Fairfax as well. This is the seat that Palmer is contesting. It could come down to the order in which candidates are eliminated. Palmer is leading the LNP and ALP. ALP + Greens is roughly equal to PUP.

If the ALP candidate is eliminated first, Palmer wins against the LNP.
If Palmer is eliminated before the ALP, The LNP wins against the ALP.

It could come down to recounts. Watch this seat.

All Palmer has to do is come second in the primary vote, and he is shitting that in. The preferences of all other candidates (other than LNP of course) will filter through to him.

The order in which candidates are eliminated from the polling is very important. The AEC have got it wrong here because the AEC 2PP count is an indicative preference count between the major parties. This is incorrect because Palmer is polling around 30%.

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #27 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:43pm

Aussie wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:09pm:

We should have listed Fairfax as well. This is the seat that Palmer is contesting. It could come down to the order in which candidates are eliminated. Palmer is leading the LNP and ALP. ALP + Greens is roughly equal to PUP.

If the ALP candidate is eliminated first, Palmer wins against the LNP.
If Palmer is eliminated before the ALP, The LNP wins against the ALP.

It could come down to recounts. Watch this seat.

All Palmer has to do is come second in the primary vote, and he is shitting that in. The preferences of all other candidates (other than LNP of course) will filter through to him.

primary ~ 55.9% counted

Palmer 14,561
Labor 9,343

Clive 52.9 against Libs 47.1.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/guide/fair/

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Bam

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #28 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:46pm

True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:23pm:

cods wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:21pm:

seems like Qld has all the loonies....

I dunno.. Labor may lose every seat in QLD

Hmm, a conservative voter with no grasp of reality, who would have thought? Roll Eyes

At the moment the ABC are reporting that the ALP are in track to hold all their Queensland seats, and the LNP are on track for a net loss of seats in Queensland with Fisher in doubt. Go Clive!

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Aussie

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Re: Most Interesting seat?
Reply #29 - Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:47pm

Bam wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 8:46pm:

True Blue... wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:23pm:

cods wrote on Sep 7^th, 2013 at 6:21pm:

seems like Qld has all the loonies....

I dunno.. Labor may lose every seat in QLD

Hmm, a conservative voter with no grasp of reality, who would have thought? Roll Eyes

At the moment the ABC are reporting that the ALP are in track to hold all their Queensland seats, and the LNP are on track for a net loss of seats in Queensland with Fisher in doubt. Go Clive!

Wayne Swan in trouble. Clive has won.

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