[... continued]
Quote: As we hunker down to wait for yet another broadband plan to come to fruition, it's worth remembering that many of the obstacles Labor encountered came not only from its own over-ambitious agenda, but from the uncertainty that Turnbull himself sowed and reaped over three years in virulent opposition.
Turnbull has begged “patience” from the industry as he seeks to sort out the remnants of Labor's rollout, and he continues to blame the disarray on Labor's own mistakes. This is hardly surprising.
And yet, as we hunker down to wait for yet another broadband plan to come to fruition, it's worth remembering that many of the obstacles Labor encountered came not only from its own over-ambitious agenda, but from the uncertainty that Turnbull himself sowed and reaped over three years in virulent opposition.
Had he supported Labor's FttP ambition but pushed instead for tighter oversight of the processes by which it was being rolled out – instead of simply arguing for a totally different policy – would the industry have fallen in line faster, knowing that FttP was inevitable?
It's not a question we can answer for sure, but it's certainly one to consider as Turnbull swaddles himself in the blindly optimistic capitalism that marked the Howard government's poorly-executed privatisation of Telstra.
Even now, Turnbull speaks in misty-eyed terms about a private sector given government subsidies “to support deployment in less economic, typically rural and remote, areas for the project and business execution risk to be carried by those best able to manage it.”
This is a worry, because – as we have seen – for better or worse, the private sector in Australia is simply not interested in managing that risk, or taking it on at all. Construction firms were, we must remember, contracted to deliver specific outcomes around the NBN based on their own estimations of the cost of the work – and, by all accounts, struggled to deliver outcomes that meet their own expectations.
Whether or not those expectations were driven by unrealistic government demands, as Turnbull will allege, or by fierce competition for what was perceived as A-grade project work, as Stephen Conroy will likely contend, the fact remains that Turnbull now faces a serious problem in mustering the manpower to deliver on his own vision.
Some have pointed to recent investments by the likes of TPG – which
bought 4G spectrum earlier this year, is
investing in undersea capacity via the $350m Hawaiki project and
wants to build fibre to around 500,000 capital-city apartments – as a sign that the private sector has been revitalised with Coalition's election.
And yet I seriously doubt TPG, or any other company building its own infrastructure, is going to freely allow access to that infrastructure. Turnbull's NBN Co could deliver such an outcome were it to buy the infrastructure when it's built – but that's not really the plan, now, is it?
Quote: Turnbull still has not outlined how he will deliver the open-access wholesale network that everybody agrees is necessary – while getting the private sector to build enough infrastructure that the government can shed the risk that he believes it should never have taken on in the first place.
Despite
assimilating TransACT's fibre network and all his rhetoric about capitalising on existing HFC networks, Turnbull still has not outlined how he will deliver the open-access wholesale network that everybody agrees is necessary – while getting the private sector to build enough infrastructure that the government can shed the risk that he believes it should never have taken on in the first place.
But who will carry that risk? Modern business cases simply don't allow you to fund infrastructure that will facilitate the creation of new competitors that will eat your lunch. Foxtel hasn't allowed competitors onto its HFC network, Optus didn't do it either. Optus has
reined in its mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) business in an attempt to stop price erosion in the crucial mobile market.
Everywhere you turn, Australia's private sector is showing exactly why Turnbull's business idealism is completely misplaced – and why residents in rural areas of Australia, who everyone agrees need broadband sooner than anybody else, have been left holding the bag once again.
Turnbull has appealed to the telecommunications sector for “commitment and flexibility, patience and hard work” as the industry's new captain works to turn the ocean liner that is Labor's NBN plan towards the Port of Broadband Mediocrity. But as Turnbull's nascent ministry misses deadline after deadline, and staggers from one broken promise to another, it's worth wondering not only when but if this boat will ever reach shore.
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