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Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world (Read 6519 times)
Ajax
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Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:18pm
 
muso wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 11:29am:
Ajax wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 10:34am:
Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???



No. There have been at least 14 different independent studies since that original regional study was posted in the IPCC FAR.  Every one of them shows that the Medieval Warm period was cooler than the current decade.

Do you suffer from short term memory loss?  The orginal study was over a much less extensive area. It relied heavily on tree ring data. There are far more accurate proxies available and a large number of proxies agree fairly closely.

The Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Ages were probably regional events.  For the Hockey Stick Ancient history, read here and educate yourself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

It's from Wikipedia, but the references are accurately reported.   

I've already explained the issues with the first and last graph, but you choose to ignore it.



Michael Mann's hockey stick (Mann et al 1998,1999) seriously misrepresents our temperature, he conveniently left out the medieval warm period and the little ice age.

Mann & co including Hansen all claim that todays temperatures are higher than the medieval warm period.

Well here are other scientific papers that claim the medieval warm period had higher temperatures than we do today.

I know who I'ld believe.

Medieval warm period warmer than today, verified by the following papers.


Dahl_Jensen et al 1998
Wagner & Melles 2001
Kaplan et al 2002
Jiang et al 2002
Moore et al 2001
Grudd et al 2002
Seppa & Birks 2002
Dansgaard et al 1975
Korhola et al 2000
Naurzbaev et al 2002
Vaganov et el 1996
Briffa et al 1998
Scweingruber & Briffa 1996
Knudsen et al 2004
Grinsted et al 2006
Besonen et al 2008
Wagner et al 2008
Vare et al 2009
Norgaard-Pedersen & Mikkelsen 2009
Andresen et al 2004
Vinther et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2010
Kobashi et al 2008
Stuiver et al 1995
Dansgaard et al 1975
Jenings & Weiner 1996
Johnsen et al 2001
Vinther et al 2010
Larsen et al 2011
Hill et al 2001
Joynt & Wolfe 2001
Hantemirov & Shiyatov 2002
Andersson et al 2003
Helama et al 2005
Mazepa 2005
Weckstrom et al 2006
Jiang et al 2007
Zabenski & Gajewski 2007
Grudd 2008
Justwan et al 2008
Scire et al 2008
Axford et al 2009
Bjune et al 2009
Cook et al 2009
Fortin & Gajewski 2010
Buntgen et al 2011
Divine et al 2011
Ran et al 2011
Velle et al 2011
D’Andrea et al 2012
Esper et al 2012

...
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« Last Edit: Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:27pm by Ajax »  

1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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muso
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #1 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:33pm
 
I just checked out three at random. Vinther et al 2010 It was about temperatures in Greenland - a highly localised study. It doesn't negate anything in the other 14 studies.  Cook et al 2009 was about the 1930s dustbowl in the US. Totally irrelevant. Grinsted et al 2006 - The Medieval Warm Period in Svalbard, Norway - another highly regionalised study.

Australian temperatures over the last 1000 years:
...

It wasn't a global phenomenon.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn16892-natural-mechanism-for-medieval-warmi...
Quote:
Warm blast

This pressure difference in turn revealed that the medieval period must have experienced a strongly positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) – the ocean current that drives winds from the Atlantic over Europe. The more positive the NAO is, the more warm air is blown towards the continent.

The idea to use growth rings to work out past climate change is not new, but Trouet's team is the first to look back beyond 1400 in the European record. They found that the strongly positive NAO lasted for about 350 years from 1050 to 1400.

By combining their data with information from other regions of the world during medieval times and plugging it into different models, the researchers have also come up with a hypothesis of what made the warm winds so persistent.

"It turns out that in the tropical Pacific, the El Niño system was in a negative La Niña mode, meaning it was colder than normal," says Trouet.
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« Last Edit: Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:40pm by muso »  

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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #2 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:43pm
 
Ajax, is the crack boring yet?? ...the worlds loneliest drug is what the climate change deniers love... lol  Grin Grin
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Ajax
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #3 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 1:44pm
 
p!ssing against the wind again.........FFS.....boys your going to get it on your pants.....LOL.....!!!!!!!

Wow you really walk with blind faith don't you...???

Hey muso did you read all those papers or only the abstracts....????

Do you know exactly what there about and why they have been selected to represent evidence that the medieval warm period was indeed just as hot OR hotter than today.

Your fanaticism based on faith and dodgy science is exactly why the rest of us should fight so hard to get rid of the disease that has inflicted the minority of the earth's population.

If indeed the medieval warm period was a regional event, which by the way it wasn't......!!!

Why then wouldn't it be a regional event today.....!!!!!!

This is going to be good.......!!!!!!!

Many papers showing medieval warm period was indeed global see below

Medieval Warm Period (Antarctica) -- Summary
http://www.co2science.org/subject/m/summaries/mwpantarctica.php
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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muso
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #4 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 4:26pm
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 1:44pm:
If indeed the medieval warm period was a regional event, which by the way it wasn't......!!!

Why then wouldn't it be a regional event today.....!!!!!!

This is going to be good.......!!!!!!!


We have the measurements to show that it's not a regional event. We also have the proxy measurements to show that the Medieval Warm period was regional. Do you reject those data? Why do you accept the proxy data that showed the Medieval Warm period in the first place?

You do realise that paleotemperatures are the result of a model?  Why do you trust that particular model?

Quote:
Hey muso did you read all those papers or only the abstracts....????


I took a random sample of three as I said. I explained what the papers were about in a previous post. Did you check them out yourself? Obviously not.

If the Medieval Warm period was global, how do you explain the Australian temperatures? No sign of it.  The same goes for the 14 independent (not regional) studies. Are you going to reject everything and cling to that one 1990 tree ring study? 
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« Last Edit: Sep 21st, 2013 at 4:33pm by muso »  

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rabbitoh07
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #5 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 4:54pm
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 12:18pm:
muso wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 11:29am:
Ajax wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 10:34am:
[b]Again you're using Mann & Co. Hockey shhhtick methods and models.

Please tell me what happened to the medieval warm period and the mini ice age in that graph you keep posting....???



No. There have been at least 14 different independent studies since that original regional study was posted in the IPCC FAR.  Every one of them shows that the Medieval Warm period was cooler than the current decade.

Do you suffer from short term memory loss?  The orginal study was over a much less extensive area. It relied heavily on tree ring data. There are far more accurate proxies available and a large number of proxies agree fairly closely.

The Medieval Warm period and the Little Ice Ages were probably regional events.  For the Hockey Stick Ancient history, read here and educate yourself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_controversy

It's from Wikipedia, but the references are accurately reported.   

I've already explained the issues with the first and last graph, but you choose to ignore it.



Michael Mann's hockey stick (Mann et al 1998,1999) seriously misrepresents our temperature, he conveniently left out the medieval warm period and the little ice age.
Do you know what an "error bar" is?

Seriously dude.  You are an idiot.
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muso
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #6 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 6:42pm
 
Yes, but you can't say that on here.
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #7 - Sep 21st, 2013 at 11:20pm
 
Ajax,

You seem to be struggling in here at the moment.
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #8 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 5:58am
 
You do realise that paleotemperatures are the result of a model?  Why do you trust that particular model?


got him bad there: and there I am dilly-dallying around trying to remind him economics uses modelling but the poor bloke probably can't bring himself to make the crack work along such lines of enquiry !!

Where is that face-palm emoticon when you need it??  Cheesy
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #9 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 6:02am
 
oh noes,...
what have we discovered here??
rabbitoh seems to have unveiled that Ajax doesn't realise all good science has error value!


I mean i could just copy and paste that sentence to myself in my own document for hours before I stopped laughing............................ and you all know I'm not joking!  Huh Huh
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #10 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 6:04am
 
... and why would i not be joking: because I have a heart, as do many, and will stick it to the climate change deniers on behalf of the unborn!

OI
OI
OI
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #11 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 6:07am
 
muso wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 4:26pm:
Ajax wrote on Sep 21st, 2013 at 1:44pm:
If indeed the medieval warm period was a regional event, which by the way it wasn't......!!!

Why then wouldn't it be a regional event today.....!!!!!!

This is going to be good.......!!!!!!!


We have the measurements to show that it's not a regional event. We also have the proxy measurements to show that the Medieval Warm period was regional. Do you reject those data? Why do you accept the proxy data that showed the Medieval Warm period in the first place?

You do realise that paleotemperatures are the result of a model?  Why do you trust that particular model?

Quote:
Hey muso did you read all those papers or only the abstracts....????


I took a random sample of three as I said. I explained what the papers were about in a previous post. Did you check them out yourself? Obviously not.

If the Medieval Warm period was global, how do you explain the Australian temperatures? No sign of it.  The same goes for the 14 independent (not regional) studies. Are you going to reject everything and cling to that one 1990 tree ring study? 

Methinks Ajax is just coming to grips with the uncertainty principle about ,well,... maybe after the next drinkypoos and/or other?!!?  Grin Grin
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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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muso
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #12 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 8:21am
 
The Medieval Warm period is irrelevant anyway. The mechanism for the regional warming have been explained. Nobody in their right minds would claim that every single  independent paleotemperature study has been doctored in some way.

Esper et al 2012
- The study estimated temperatures going back 2,000 years by analyzing the density of tree rings taken only from northern Finland and Sweden.  The record they produced only reflects temperatures between June and August.

This paper was misreported on Fox news. The research team repudiated the claims as follows :
Quote:
Our paper is for northern Scandinavian summer temperatures, so extrapolating to large scale annual temperatures is not really correct
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« Last Edit: Sep 22nd, 2013 at 8:39am by muso »  

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #13 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 8:28am
 
This whole climate change debate is so silly.

How can we humans put billions of tons of CO2 & other gases
into our atmosphere & expect nothing to happen?

Science says for every action there is an effect.

Billions of tons of stinking coal have to do something!
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #14 - Sep 22nd, 2013 at 8:50am
 
This is a composite graph of temperature and CO2 going back 20,000 years.

It shows the temperature record from the Vostok ice core (dark blue), together with CO2 (red) from the Vostok ice core, the Law Dome ice core, and from the Mauna Loa monitoring station in Hawaii. The dramatic increase in CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution is the first thing that you notice.  The graph is a few years old. Current CO2 concentration is around 400ppm.
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20000yearsbig.gif (17 KB | 34 )
20000yearsbig.gif

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