Australian Politics Forum - Michael Mann's hockey stick

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #15 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 9:06am

muso wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 8:50am:

This is a composite graph of temperature and CO2 going back 20,000 years.

It shows the temperature record from the Vostok ice core (dark blue), together with CO2 (red) from the Vostok ice core, the Law Dome ice core, and from the Mauna Loa monitoring station in Hawaii. The dramatic increase in CO2 since the start of the industrial revolution is the first thing that you notice. The graph is a few years old. Current CO2 concentration is around 400ppm.

Good post Muso,

we're doomed!

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10982 Australia Gender:	Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world Reply #16 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:12am On that graph you posted muso, CO2 hockey sticks at the far right yet temperature remain relatively flat. Once again proving the trace gas CO2 has no correlation to temperature. Or has it ever driven temperature here on Earth. On a closer scale below.........
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #17 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:32am

Ajax wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:12am:

On that graph you posted muso, CO2 hockey sticks at the far right yet temperature remain relatively flat.

Once again proving the trace gas CO2 has no correlation to temperature.

Or has it ever driven temperature here on Earth.

On a closer scale below.........

It is a question of scale as you say, but you really need to use global temperature in the graph of the last 50 years. Using Greenland air temperature as you have done doesn't cut it. If you want to be honest, use a graph of global temperatures. (Like this one) This one shows temperature CO2 and solar irradiance (sources shown in key):

Tell me what you can conclude from this graph.

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« Last Edit: Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:37am by muso »

temp_co2_tsi_stacked.png (123 KB | 36 )

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Ajax

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #18 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:51am

The graph shows keeling's curve with respect to CO2 rise in the atmosphere.

It also shows that temperature has been rising from the various data bases from satellites.

It also shows the solar irradiance is declining.

Now I have been saying all along that the experts tell us for the next few decades the sun's influence will decline.

And viola the temperature seems to have stalled as you guys put it.

If the temperature now starts to drop, in your opinion is this proof enough that AGW is not the ONLY driver for temperature increasing.

I'm not saying that CO2 doesn't contribute to the to warming.

What i'm disputing is HOW MUCH..........???????

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muso

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #19 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:00am

Ajax wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 10:51am:

The graph shows keeling's curve with respect to CO2 rise in the atmosphere.

It also shows that temperature has been rising from the various data bases from satellites.

It also shows the solar irradiance is declining.

Now I have been saying all along that the experts tell us for the next few decades the sun's influence will decline.

And viola the temperature seems to have stalled as you guys put it.

If the temperature now starts to drop, in your opinion is this proof enough that AGW is not the ONLY driver for temperature increasing.

How many times do I have to repeat this?

CO2 is not the only driver. Nobody is claiming that it is. Look at the graph again. It's a good illustration. Look at the peaks in solar irradiance. Can you see corresponding peaks in the temperature plot?

Now mentally subtract those peaks from the temperature plot and compare CO2 against temperature. Make sense?

Solar influence is declining? Well it depends on the trend and which reconstruction you use, but overall for the period of that graph, solar influence is declining slightly or close to neutral. Over a shorter timescale, we see the peaks that correspond to solar maxima.

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« Last Edit: Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:06am by muso »

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Ajax

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #20 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:14am

muso wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:00am:

How many times do I have to repeat this?

CO2 is not the only driver. Nobody is claiming that it is

The IPCC say with 95% confidence that manmade CO2 emissions are responsible for nearly all the warming we have observed in the last 60 odd years or so......????

Do you agree with them........?????.......or not.....!!!!!

Quote:

. Look at the graph again. It's a good illustration. Look at the peaks in solar irradiance. Can you see corresponding peaks in the temperature plot?

Yes I can......!!!!

Quote:

Now mentally subtract those peaks from the temperature plot and compare CO2 against temperature. Make sense?

Are you saying that where the sun fails to have an effect on the temperature CO2 takes over.......?????

No I cant agree with that, if that's your case.

Quote:

Solar influence is declining? Well it depends on the trend and which reconstruction you use, but overall for the period of that graph, solar influence is declining slightly or close to neutral. Over a shorter timescale, we see the peaks that correspond to solar maxima.

Overall its too short a time scale to decipher any meaningful trends.

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muso

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #21 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:24am

Ajax wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:14am:

muso wrote on Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:00am:

How many times do I have to repeat this?

CO2 is not the only driver. Nobody is claiming that it is

The IPCC say with 95% confidence that manmade CO2 emissions are responsible for nearly all the warming we have observed in the last 60 odd years or so......????

Do you agree with them........?????.......or not.....!!!!!

I do, but let's talk about why:

Quote:

Quote:

. Look at the graph again. It's a good illustration. Look at the peaks in solar irradiance. Can you see corresponding peaks in the temperature plot?

Yes I can......!!!!

Quote:

Now mentally subtract those peaks from the temperature plot and compare CO2 against temperature. Make sense?

Are you saying that where the sun fails to have an effect on the temperature CO2 takes over.......?????

No I cant agree with that, if that's your case.

It's additive. Both the sun and CO2 have an effect on global temperature. It's not a question of taking over. The sun goes up and down a bit over the years, but if anything, it's a slight falling trend.

The sun provides the heat input that warms the surface of the Eath. The Earth radiates that heat at a different wavelength (Long Wave Infrared). Greenhouse gases absorb that and reradiate it in all directions, so less of it escapes to space. They reduce the heat output. Capiche?

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Ajax

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #22 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:34am

Quote:

Carbon Dioxide and Global Warming

Where We Stand on the Issue
C. D. Idso and K. E. Idso

Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change

There is little doubt the air's CO2 concentration has risen significantly since the inception of the Industrial Revolution; and there are few who do not attribute the CO2 increase to the increase in humanity's use of fossil fuels.

There is also little doubt the earth has warmed slightly over the same period; but there is no compelling reason to believe that the rise in temperature was caused by the rise in CO2.

Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that future increases in the air's CO2 content will produce any global warming; for there are numerous problems with the popular hypothesis that links the two phenomena.

A weak short-term correlation between CO2 and temperature proves nothing about causation.

Proponents of the notion that increases in the air's CO2 content lead to global warming point to the past century's weak correlation between atmospheric CO2 concentration and global air temperature as proof of their contention. However, they typically gloss over the fact that correlation does not imply causation, and that a hundred years is not enough time to establish the validity of such a relationship when it comes to earth's temperature history.

The observation that two things have risen together for a period of time says nothing about one trend being the cause of the other.

To establish a causal relationship it must be demonstrated that the presumed cause precedes the presumed effect. Furthermore, this relationship should be demonstrable over several cycles of increases and decreases in both parameters.

And even when these criteria are met, as in the case of solar/climate relationships, many people are unwilling to acknowledge that variations in the presumed cause truly produced the observed analogous variations in the presumed effect.

In thus considering the seven greatest temperature transitions of the past half-million years - three glacial terminations and four glacial inceptions - we note that increases and decreases in atmospheric CO2 concentration not only did not precede the changes in air temperature, they followed them, and by hundreds to thousands of years!

There were also long periods of time when atmospheric CO2 remained unchanged, while air temperature dropped, as well as times when the air's CO2 content dropped, while air temperature remained unchanged or actually rose.

Hence, the climate history of the past half-million years provides absolutely no evidence to suggest that the ongoing rise in the air's CO2 concentration will lead to significant global warming.

read the rest here
http://www.co2science.org/about/position/globalwarming.php

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« Last Edit: Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:41am by Ajax »

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muso

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #23 - Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 11:55am

I don't have time to pull apart the Idso family's self published "paper".

Can you understand the position from my post? if the solar irradiance trend is reducing slightly or neutral and the temperature is rising, there is no long term correlation between solar input and temperature over that period.

The causation for CO2 is well established. It relates to very basic physics. You'd have to go back to Svante Arrhenius way back at the turn of the 19th century for that. You can measure the effect of CO2 on Infrared radiation directly using a long path FTIR. That part is uncontroversial.

At least you agree that the increase in CO2 is manmade.

Ok,

the Idsos say this:

Quote:

A weak short-term correlation between CO2 and temperature proves nothing about causation.

Have a look at this website. It describes how carbon dioxide is measured in the atmosphere.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/about/co2_measurements.html#infrared
Quote:

Infrared absorption.

How does the CO2 analyzer work? Air is slowly pumped through a small cylindrical cell with flat windows on both ends. Infrared light is transmitted through one window, through the cell, through the second window, and is measured by a detector that is sensitive to infrared radiation. In the atmosphere carbon dioxide absorbs infrared radiation, contributing to warming of the earth surface. Also in the cell CO2 absorbs infrared light. More CO2 in the cell causes more absorption, leaving less light to hit the detector. We turn the detector signal, which is registered in volts, into a measure of the amount of CO2 in the cell through extensive and automated (always ongoing) calibration procedures.

Nothing theoretical about it. That is how atmospheric CO2 is measured. Would you regard that as causation? Justify your answer. Tell me what you can deduce from that website.

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« Last Edit: Sep 22^nd, 2013 at 6:47pm by muso »

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world Reply #24 - Sep 23^rd, 2013 at 6:44pm Off-Topic replies have been moved to this Topic.
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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world Reply #25 - Sep 24^th, 2013 at 10:56am I would love to see some more papers done on how the drivers interact and effect each other. Looks like they've been focusing mainly on single drivers then trying to add them together after the fact.
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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #26 - Sep 24^th, 2013 at 5:14pm

Vuk11 wrote on Sep 24^th, 2013 at 10:56am:

I would love to see some more papers done on how the drivers interact and effect each other.
Looks like they've been focusing mainly on single drivers then trying to add them together after the fact.

Did you read the AR4 WG1 report?

Read Chapters 1 to 4, particularly Chapter 2.

Quote:

Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007

Quote:

Contents2
Chapter 2: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing
Executive Summary
2.1 Introduction and Scope
2.2 Concept of Radiative Forcing
FAQ 2.1 How do Human Activities Contribute to Climate Change and How do They Compare with Natural Influences?
2.3 Chemically and Radiatively Important Gases
2.3.1 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
2.3.2 Atmospheric Methane
2.3.3 Other Kyoto Protocol Gases
2.3.4 Montreal Protocol Gases
2.3.5 Trends in the Hydroxyl Free Radical
2.3.6 Ozone
2.3.7 Stratospheric Water Vapour
2.3.8 Observations of Long-Lived Greenhouse Gas Radiative Effects
2.4 Aerosols
2.4.1 Introduction and Summary of the Third Assessment Report
2.4.2 Developments Related to Aerosol Observations
2.4.3 Advances in Modelling the Aerosol Direct Effect
2.4.4 Estimates of Aerosol Direct Radiative Forcing
2.4.5 Aerosol Influence on Clouds (Cloud Albedo Effect)
2.5 Anthropogenic Changes in Surface Albedo and the Surface Energy Budget
2.5.1 Introduction
2.5.2 Changes in Land Cover Since 1750
2.5.4 Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Surface Albedo Change: Black Carbon in Snow and Ice
2.5.5 Other Effects of Anthropogenic Changes in Land Cover
2.5.6 Tropospheric Water Vapour from Anthropogenic Sources
2.5.7 Anthropogenic Heat Release
2.5.8 Effects of Carbon Dioxide Changes on Climate via Plant Physiology: ‘Physiological Forcing’
2.6 Contrails and Aircraft-Induced Cloudiness
2.6.1 Introduction
2.6.2 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Persistent Line-Shaped Contrails
2.6.3 Radiative Forcing Estimates for Aviation- Induced Cloudiness
2.6.4 Aviation Aerosols
2.7 Natural Forcings
2.7.1 Solar Variability
2.7.2 Explosive Volcanic Activity
2.8 Utility of Radiative Forcing
2.8.1 Vertical Forcing Patterns and Surface Energy Balance Changes
2.8.2 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing
2.8.3 Alternative Methods of Calculating Radiative Forcing
2.8.4 Linearity of the Forcing-Response Relationship
2.8.5 Efficacy and Effective Radiative Forcing
2.8.6 Efficacy and the Forcing-Response Relationship
2.9 Synthesis
2.9.1 Uncertainties in Radiative Forcing
2.9.2 Global Mean Radiative Forcing
2.9.3 Global Mean Radiative Forcing by Emission Precursor
2.9.4 Future Climate Impact of Current Emissions
2.9.5 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing
2.9.6 Spatial Patterns of Radiative Forcing and Surface Forcing
2.10 Global Warming Potentials and Other Metrics for Comparing Different Emissions
2.10.1 Definition of an Emission Metric and the Global Warming Potential
2.10.2 Direct Global Warming Potentials
2.10.3 Indirect GWPs
2.10.4 New Alternative Metrics for Assessing Emissions

http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/contents.html

There have been recent pictures on the topic of mixed gas interactions, but have you seen the original studies?

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/assessments/ozone/1991/chapters/chapter7.pdf

http://go.owu.edu/~chjackso/Climate/papers/Myhre_1998_New%20eatimates%20of%20rad...

A more recent paper:
http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/2006/Collins.Ramaswamy.ea-jgr-2006.pdf

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Vuk11

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #27 - Sep 24^th, 2013 at 6:11pm

I'll read both the fourth and fifth report in time of course, cheers for that specific section.

Though 1991,98,2006. I'm more inclined to wonder what's been happening in the last 7 years though, how different of a perspective compared to then. I will definitely hunt around some time for recent papers for this.

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Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world
Reply #28 - Sep 24^th, 2013 at 11:51pm

Somebody somewhere asked about carbon fluxes. There are so many damned threads going, I can't find it. Ocean uptake is increasing in mass, but decreasing in proportion to atmospheric accumulation. The unknown flux is a combination of factors including ocean phytoplankton and other microbiota.

A figure of around 40% is often quoted, but it's decreasing with time. I hope that helps to clarify.

Source of graph:

http://www.whrc.org/about/index.html

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Michael Mann's hockey stick - misleading the world Reply #29 - Sep 25^th, 2013 at 12:23am One other factor is the fact that ozone depletents are slowly reducing in concentration - some faster than others. The "Ozone layer" is recovering slowly. This will also have a net negative effect on global warming.
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