Campbell Newman at 18 months as premier

Date
    September 24, 2013
    Brisbane Times.

Happy 18 month anniversary of the Newman government.

Now get ready for the election campaign.      

Senior lecturer in politics and journalism at Griffith University, Paul Williams, said Queenslanders should brace themselves for election preparations to begin in the months ahead.      


June or July is when the George Street whisperers have tentatively marked their calendars. Government members are laughing off all election talk as too early to even discuss.


But Dr Williams said the signs are Queenslanders will be headed back to the polls before another 18 months has passed.

“From this point on, [Mr] Newman will be very much in election mode,” Dr Williams said.

“Every day of a politician's life is with an eye for the next election, but this will be especially the case from this point on.

“This budget was pretty tough, but the next budget will be pretty sweet, I imagine.”

Setting the election date is the prerogative of sitting governments. And as with all elections, the when of the next state one will heavily rely on internal polling.

“I am pretty certain their internal polling would tell them that [Mr] Newman is not a popular man. That doesn't mean they won't vote for him,” Dr Williams said.

“People will vote for the LNP in droves – they would only suffer a small swing against them if there was an election tomorrow.”

But the popularity of Mr Newman, who as the face of the government and, for the first nine months at least, the constant deliverer of bad news, has taken a hit.

“What they are going to have to do in the next nine to 18 months is build the Newman package, build [Mr] Newman as something to sell,” Dr Williams said.

“I think what their research would show is that [Mr] Newman was a drag on the federal vote, given that the swing in Queensland was the smallest in the country.”

Government members, including Mr Newman, have categorically denied Mr Newman's government had any impact on the federal election result – other than acting as a ringing endorsement of the decisions the state government has made.

"The recent federal campaign was a referendum on my government and its reform program," Mr Newman told reporters just after the election.

"I say that Queenslanders, despite the scare campaign and the things that Labor said, have actually backed Tony Abbott and indeed, therefore, my government."

But Dr Williams said at 1.5 per cent, it was “the smallest swing in the country” and given the antipathy of Queenslanders to the federal Labor government “it would be impossible to conceive that there would be a swing to Labor, federally, in this state”.

“There must be some other factor at work,” Dr Williams said.

“The fact that the [swing against Labor] was contained to 1.5 per cent, really is not a good reflection of the state government.”

As for the first 18 months, Dr Williams described it as a “mixed bag”.

The first nine months – a time of ministerial sackings, austerity, public service cuts and defecting members has been balanced out by what Dr Williams said has been a better managed and more disciplined government over the past nine months.

“I'd give them a five or a six, out of 10. It is a pass, but it has been such a mixed bag," he said.

“They have made some tough decisions economically and not everyone likes them but you've got to give them credit for seizing the bull by the horns, I think they have won a lot of points with that. And anything that cuts business red tape is going to be lauded.

“But they lose points on their management of the environment and early problems with integrity but it seems like they are turning the corner on that.”

Dr Williams said recent issues with [now independent] Redcliffe MP Scott Driscoll and Redlands MP Peter Dowling were unfair to lie entirely at Mr Newman's door, as he could not be expected to control every “rogue” back bencher in such a large government.

The Opposition has “probably done as much as an opposition of seven can do,” Dr Williams said.

comments so far

        Bring it on. Can't wait to show this mob the door. Their erosion of environmental protection alone shows they don't govern for all, not to mention the impact on families, services and businesses from mass sackings and withdrawal of funding.      

    Commenter
        Lel
    Location
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 5:54AM



            Ah, the anti LNP vocal minority... Lazy public servants and general societal deadwood whinging now the gravey train has ground to a halt.

            But I guess if I stopped doing my job and my absence from the work force had no effect on anything, I guess I'd be a little bitter too...   

        Commenter
            DTJ
        Date and time
            September 24, 2013, 7:27AM

        Only another 18 months and goodbye Newman......and I'm hoping that the coal mining that will destroy the Reef won't get started in that time........hopefully    

    Commenter
        JT
    Location
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 6:00AM

        Bring on the election. I think the govt would lose "substantial" support & that Cant Do would be one of a number of major casualties the LNP would suffer. So again I say, bring it on.      

    Commenter
        Davo
    Location
        Brisbane
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 6:11AM

        So the LNP may win the next state election, but based on his performance he should lose his seat.      

    Commenter
        clive
    Location
        Ashgrove
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 6:11AM

        Never too late. In fact, Newman doesn't realise it but he has been engaging in an election campaign to get himself booted since the day he was elected. So far he's on track to get just what he (and the rest of us) require.

    Commenter
        Peter
    Location
        Hendra
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 6:11AM

        Zero out of ten for environmental accountability for me...      

    Commenter
        wurlinator
    Date and time
        September 24, 2013, 6:12AM

my impression crook is that people know things arent quite right in the economy.
big slow downs, job insecurity.
they intuitively know that such a situation calls for belt tightening and not more waste.

i feel bligh was an out of control spender, in the eyes of many queenslanders.

thus, whilst they dont like the pain, they are happy to swallow campbells medicine.

will it do them good in the long term??

difficult to say.

certainly you cant borrow money to finance recurrent costs (teachers wages, nurses wages...this is mismanagement)

should campbell borrow for infrastructure.....maybe, but it would want to be targetted and run by the private sector.

things like blighs water commision (170 public servants on an average of 70 grand) to do nothing (the dams were full at the time)  well...just wasteful

infrastructure like the billion dollar desal plant and the 2 billion dollar water recysling plant which have never pumped one litre of water anywhere except into the ocean...these are constant reminders of beattie and bligh waste and they arent quite forgotten yet

Newman won't get away scot free if he wrecks the great barrier reef.

Now the feds want to fast track the destruction.

They will both be banished for this, the Australian people don't take kindly to their natural heritage sites being decimated for mining.