Australian Politics Forum - Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change

Grey Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5341 Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #105 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 12:50am muso wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2013 at 7:08pm: Well nobody is talking about physiological effects much, You mean their teeny weeny anterior cingulate cortex? http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/liberals-and-conservatives-the...
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Emma Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 9853 OZ Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #106 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:43am what ? who... me?? I believe in it .. can't see why it is even a contoversy.
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muso

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #107 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 6:32am

Grey wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 12:50am:

muso wrote on Oct 3^rd, 2013 at 7:08pm:

Well nobody is talking about physiological effects much,

You mean their teeny weeny anterior cingulate cortex?

http://www.independentaustralia.net/2013/politics/liberals-and-conservatives-the...

Careful there. The participants here don't necessarily fit political stereotypes. Grin

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Ajax Gold Member Offline CO2 has never controlled temperature on Earth Posts: 10982 Australia Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #108 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 9:57am Well currently sea levels are rising at about 2mm/years. by 2100 sea levels will rise about 200mm (8") there is nothing alarming about this rate.........!!!!!
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #109 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:32pm

Ajax wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 9:57am:

Well currently sea levels are rising at about 2mm/years.

by 2100 sea levels will rise about 200mm (8") there is nothing alarming about this rate.........!!!!!

is the rate rise linear?

over what time period did you arrive at the 2mm/year figure?

what are your assumptions?

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Vuk11

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #110 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:44pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:32pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 9:57am:

Well currently sea levels are rising at about 2mm/years.

by 2100 sea levels will rise about 200mm (8") there is nothing alarming about this rate.........!!!!!

is the rate rise linear?

over what time period did you arrive at the 2mm/year figure?

what are your assumptions?

I'm pretty sure that is the data he IPCC uses in it's report.
Not his own conclusion but theirs.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #111 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:55pm

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:44pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:32pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 9:57am:

Well currently sea levels are rising at about 2mm/years.

by 2100 sea levels will rise about 200mm (8") there is nothing alarming about this rate.........!!!!!

is the rate rise linear?

over what time period did you arrive at the 2mm/year figure?

what are your assumptions?

I'm pretty sure that is the data he IPCC uses in it's report.
Not his own conclusion but theirs.

is it a linear rate rise in sea level over time?

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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #112 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:05pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 3:55pm: is it a linear rate rise in sea level over time? Sorry I can't recall, perhaps that is the argument that the rate isn't increasing. You'll have to check with Muso.
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muso

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #113 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:05pm

Ajax wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 9:57am:

Well currently sea levels are rising at about 2mm/years.

3.2 mm/year actually:

GMSL Rates
CU: 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr
AVISO: 3.2 ± 0.6 mm/yr
CSIRO: 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr
NOAA: 3.2 ± 0.4 mm/yr (w/ GIA)

Quote:

by 2100 sea levels will rise about 200mm (8") there is nothing alarming about this rate.........!!!!!

It depends on the emission scenario. Check the graph. THis projection doesn't include things like increased polar methane offgassing, so it could be significantly understated.

The range is 25cm to 1 metre for 2100 depending on emission scenario. From AR5 WG1:

Quote:

Ocean thermal expansion and glacier mass loss are very likely the dominant contributors to global mean sea level rise during the 20th century.

It is very likely that warming of the ocean has contributed 0.8 [0.5 to 1.1] mm yr–1 of sea level change during 1971–2010, with the majority of the contribution coming from the upper 700 m.

Observations, combined with improved methods of analysis, indicate that the global glacier contribution (excluding the peripheral glaciers around Greenland and Antarctica) to sea level was 0.25 to 1.00 mm yr–1 sea level equivalent during 1971–2010.

The balance is made up from Greenland and West Antarctica. No net accumulation in Antarctica since 1979.

To answer your question, it's not linear. Greenland's rate of ice melt is expected to accelerate for one.

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« Last Edit: Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:12pm by muso »

graph13.jpeg (64 KB | 28 )

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #114 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:11pm And here are the four emission scenarios referred to in the above graph:
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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #115 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:31pm Would it be safe to say the predictions when mediated would suggest a linear rate of rise? Or does that single Red line prove that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate?
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #116 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:45pm Vuk11 wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:31pm: Would it be safe to say the predictions when mediated would suggest a linear rate of rise? Or does that single Red line prove that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate? RCP2.5 is the only scenario where there is a roughly linear rise. Correct.
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Vuk11

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #117 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:52pm

muso wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:45pm:

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:31pm:

Would it be safe to say the predictions when mediated would suggest a linear rate of rise?
Or does that single Red line prove that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate?

RCP2.5 is the only scenario where there is a roughly linear rise. Correct.

Oh so RCP 8.5 is the one with the exponential increase in c02 so that one if the biggest prediction of an accelerated rate? (When looking at the line not the min-max)

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muso

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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #118 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 7:32pm

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:52pm:

muso wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:45pm:

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 4^th, 2013 at 4:31pm:

Would it be safe to say the predictions when mediated would suggest a linear rate of rise?
Or does that single Red line prove that the rate of sea level rise would accelerate?

RCP2.5 is the only scenario where there is a roughly linear rise. Correct.

Oh so RCP 8.5 is the one with the exponential increase in c02 so that one if the biggest prediction of an accelerated rate? (When looking at the line not the min-max)

Well it's not exponential, but it's the biggest rise. It corresponds to the scenario where the CO2 rises to about 25 PgC/yr and levels off around 2080. We're currently a bit less than half that rate (about 11PgC/ year. Multiply by 3.67 to give CO2. 1 Pg = 1 Gigatonne.) It also gives an atmospheric concentration of 1000 ppm or thereabouts.

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change Reply #119 - Oct 4^th, 2013 at 7:51pm Not all the tipping points are known and most of the accepted tipping points are not fully understood with respect to what they will do to the climate, sea levels etc. Clathratic methane, permafrosts, Greenland terrestrial ice etc are very scary factors in all of this.....
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