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Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change (Read 19004 times)
muso
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #45 - Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:18pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:33pm:
[quote]
Provide an example, including expected error.  Obviously if you're talking about a specific scenario, you'd need to demonstrate that the past history matched that particular scenario.



temperature predictions: way off
sea level predictions: way off
polar ice predictions: way off

is that a good enough start for you?


I didn't think you'd be able to do that. I'll tell you what, here are two of your alleged failed predictions with error bars. These predictions appear to be quite successful. I'd go so far as to say that your argument is blown out of the water (with 95% confidence.)

I'll leave you to show me the data for sea ice, but as far as I'm aware, the IPCC predictions were actually quite conservative compared with reality.

Prove me wrong - I'll settle for 95% from you. 


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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #46 - Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:29pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:34pm:
...  worst case scenarios are rarely ever true ...
Outcomes are usually somewhere between worst and best cases. The question is, where in the spectrum of possibilities do we want to end up? You seem to be saying that "rarely ever" means "never".

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 4:34pm:
... why take it seriously?
Why take any risk seriously?
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muso
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #47 - Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:40pm
 
On Arctic sea ice, all I could find was this:

http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=605#16241

Quote:
by 2050, sea-ice extent is reduced to about 80% of area it covered at the mid-20th century.


That seems to be on track. Explain to me why you think it isn't.

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Bobby.
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #48 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 7:54am
 
Bobby. wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 9:42am:
Longy wants our cities to be like Beijing:



...

...


The kind of world that Longy wants for us.
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Ajax
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #49 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 12:43pm
 
As usual the IPCC prediction about sea rises is once again of the mark, just like their temperature predictions.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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muso
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #50 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 1:26pm
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 12:43pm:
As usual the IPCC prediction about sea rises is once again of the mark, just like their temperature predictions.



You're not paying attention. Talk to the facts
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1380242167/45#45
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Winston Smith
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #51 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 2:48pm
 
____ wrote on Sep 27th, 2013 at 11:04am:
Hey long, for a person who gambles a whole $5 on the outcome of the federal melbourne seat ... loses the bet and then reneges on paying that $5 to the charity of my choice, who cares what you believe in since you have no ethics. 

If you want to risk your god's creation over your denial of basic science ... then why start this thread here. It should be in some obscure location hidden away from the light of day.

You have no morals and want to destroy humanity just out of pigheadedness.


No, that was me. Longy's sociopathy doesn't extend beyond being purposefully obstinate to piss people off. He knows AGW is real.
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muso
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #52 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 4:23pm
 
Winston Smith wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 2:48pm:
No, that was me. Longy's sociopathy doesn't extend beyond being purposefully obstinate to piss people off. He knows AGW is real.


You could be right.

Quote:
Longy wants our cities to be like Beijing:


Anecdotal information indicates that particulate air pollution has increased in regions with increasing coal burning, but assessment of the climate forcing requires global measurement of detailed physical properties of the aerosols.

Unfortunately, the one satellite mission that was capable of making measurements with the required detail and accuracy was lost via a launch failure, and as yet there are no plans for a replacement mission with the needed capabilities.

http://www.space.com/11030-nasa-glory-climate-satellite-failure.html


So there is a big gap in our understanding there, although as China gradually cleans up its act, ironically we'll start to see far greater warming.

Do you see how the negative forcing of aerosols (in blue) cancels out some of  the positive forcing of CO2 (not forgetting variations in solar forcing, volcanic negative forcing etc)
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BatteriesNotIncluded
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #53 - Sep 29th, 2013 at 5:01pm
 
Winston Smith wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 2:48pm:
____ wrote on Sep 27th, 2013 at 11:04am:
Hey long, for a person who gambles a whole $5 on the outcome of the federal melbourne seat ... loses the bet and then reneges on paying that $5 to the charity of my choice, who cares what you believe in since you have no ethics. 

If you want to risk your god's creation over your denial of basic science ... then why start this thread here. It should be in some obscure location hidden away from the light of day.

You have no morals and want to destroy humanity just out of pigheadedness.


No, that was me. Longy's sociopathy doesn't extend beyond being purposefully obstinate to piss people off. He knows AGW is real.

We all know that all deniers know it is real: they are just stalling for maximum retooling time!

  Cheesy Cheesy

ALL HUMAN RELATIONS IS POLITICS
...
SAID ONE OF THOSE EXCELLENT OLD DOODS!!

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*Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is.  It wouldn't be there without the tax payer.  Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know....  (swaggy) *
 
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Ajax
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #54 - Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:33am
 
Sea levels have been rising since around the 1800's when we started to climb out of the mini ice age by temperature going up.

Temperatures have been rising since the 1800's.

Its only natural that temperature co2 and ocean levels rise.

The question that everyone should be asking is how much of the warming is actually due to manmade CO2.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Bobby.
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #55 - Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:52am
 
muso wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 4:23pm:
Winston Smith wrote on Sep 29th, 2013 at 2:48pm:
No, that was me. Longy's sociopathy doesn't extend beyond being purposefully obstinate to piss people off. He knows AGW is real.


You could be right.

Quote:
Longy wants our cities to be like Beijing:


Anecdotal information indicates that particulate air pollution has increased in regions with increasing coal burning, but assessment of the climate forcing requires global measurement of detailed physical properties of the aerosols.

Unfortunately, the one satellite mission that was capable of making measurements with the required detail and accuracy was lost via a launch failure, and as yet there are no plans for a replacement mission with the needed capabilities.

http://www.space.com/11030-nasa-glory-climate-satellite-failure.html


So there is a big gap in our understanding there, although as China gradually cleans up its act, ironically we'll start to see far greater warming.

Do you see how the negative forcing of aerosols (in blue) cancels out some of  the positive forcing of CO2 (not forgetting variations in solar forcing, volcanic negative forcing etc)


True but I don't want to live in a smog haze.
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #56 - Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:58am
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:33am:
Sea levels have been rising since around the 1800's when we started to climb out of the mini ice age by temperature going up.

Temperatures have been rising since the 1800's.

Its only natural that temperature co2 and ocean levels rise.

The question that everyone should be asking is how much of the warming is actually due to manmade CO2.


Can you explain WHY your beloved clean, efficient and harmless Global Fossil Fuel industry requires 1.4 trillion dollars EVERY YEAR from the tax payer?
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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Ajax
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #57 - Sep 30th, 2013 at 10:04am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:58am:
Can you explain WHY your beloved clean, efficient and harmless Global Fossil Fuel industry requires 1.4 trillion dollars EVERY YEAR from the tax payer?


Hey I know we're getting ripped of with petrol prices and utilities, but how is the tax payer giving $1.4 trillion to the fossil fuel industry....??????
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #58 - Oct 1st, 2013 at 7:46pm
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 10:04am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:58am:
Can you explain WHY your beloved clean, efficient and harmless Global Fossil Fuel industry requires 1.4 trillion dollars EVERY YEAR from the tax payer?


Hey I know we're getting ripped of with petrol prices and utilities, but how is the tax payer giving $1.4 trillion to the fossil fuel industry....??????


lol - you don't know?

I am quoting the 1.4 trillion dollar subsidy figure that the fossil fuel sectors receive each year on a global basis.

You can quote the IMF if you like - their estimate is 1.9 trillion dollars per year.

And this figure does not include the massive military spending that is directly linked to Oil Wars and security etc.

In Australia, the COAL INDUSTRY alone receives about 9 Billion dollars per year from that tax payer.

Meanwhile renewable energy options have to scrounge around for a few million dollars to build pilot and demonstration scale plants or conduct R&D and feasibility studies.

Now Abbott has scrapped the Clean Energy funding corporation. A funding model used in many countries overseas, including California and GErmany.

We are sick nation for a very good reason Mr Ajax.

I wonder if you know what that reason is?
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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness
 
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Emma
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Re: Why I don’t believe in Catastrophic Climate Change
Reply #59 - Oct 1st, 2013 at 9:09pm
 
Ajax wrote on Sep 30th, 2013 at 9:33am:
Sea levels have been rising since around the 1800's when we started to climb out of the mini ice age by temperature going up.

Temperatures have been rising since the 1800's.

Its only natural that temperature co2 and ocean levels rise.

The question that everyone should be asking is how much of the warming is actually due to manmade CO2
.


er wasn't it just on the News ??  yesterday..??

did you miss it..?

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live every day
 
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