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IPCC 95% sure about AGW (Read 38417 times)
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #330 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:44am
 
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
# wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:45pm:
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 3:46pm:
...What if that one person is right ...
Then we consider probabilities.

In my experience, the majority is more often right (or at least closer to right) than any minority. What's your experience?


In my experience there is no clear distinction. ...
Whyfor  Democracy?
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
... probabilities aren't always ...
Isn't it the nature of probabilities that they "aren't always"? Aren't probabilities an aid to making decisions in uncertainty?
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
... A lot of important events the single mind has overcome the block of the many. ...
Probability?
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
...In other situations majority can be good to warn of potential ills. ...
Making no sense at all here. Misinterpreting the meaning of "majority".
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
...
1. Leaving the control of the lives of humanity to a vote is immoral. It's much more beneficial to persuade then to force.
Sounds like libertarian hysteria. Isn't it better to make a choice while we still have choices? On the best advice, won't nature eventually "force" a fate upon us?
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
2. Therefore the acts of many individuals outweigh the acts of the few representing the majority.
The few representing the majority: now there's an interesting perversion of language. In this context, majority is a tool for determining probability, to aid in decision making. Does denying it do more than evade the decision?
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
3. If it effects everyone, each has an equal voice to their own destiny. Whether they are knowledgeable or not, the best situation is to provide ample argument for both sides and allow people to use their own logic to determine conclusion.
To a certain mindset, that's irresistible. It took me decades to realise the folly in it.

By the 1990s, I'd concluded that climate science is so complex that I would never develop a credible comprehension of it. So I decided that my best option is to accept the opinion of the majority of the best qualified. Since then, the Merchants of Doubt have so muddied the waters that avoiding the influences of our own world views is virtually impossible. We're pretty much doomed to reinforce what we already believe, rather than coming to conclusions based on genuine evidence.

Most of us base our decisions on what people we trust tell us. These days we have too many skilled liars, well-paid by vested interests, peddling distortions.

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
You get nothing good in the long run from force. ...
There's that libertarian streak again. Aren't we "forced" to choose? Aren't we better off choosing while we still have choices? Won't nature eventually "force" us?

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
The funny thing is whether you're an AGW skeptic or supporter, the middle ground is still observable climate change. The issue comes in the cause ...
Of which, the best qualified say they're 95 to 100% certain it's us.
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 7:02pm:
... In my opinion the cause is regardless, especially when you have solutions that would be efficient regardless of AGW or natural climate change. We need to start agreeing on failures and work on solutions, there are many proposed that can be supported regardless of cause. Whether they are for preparation or prevention.
There, I have to disagree. If the cause isn't us, then are we the solution?

If global warming isn't anthropogenic, then what can humanity do? Without what you call "force", will vested interests agree on the failures? Will they permit the solutions? What are vested interests likely to do, except exploit the situation for short-term gain?
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #331 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:47am
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:36am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 10:24pm:
...
So based on this assessment you would recommend the international community implements NO mitigational actions against the effects of AGW?

No.  Absolutely not.
...

So what are you whining about?
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #332 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, so what does that say about their credibility....???

They are the front runners on carbon pricing, governments around the world are listening to their CO2 mitigation policies yet their science has failed to prove anything of what they claim.

Quote:
I thought you said that the atmospheric CO2 level should be ramped up as quickly as possible because it plays no role in the observed warming trends measured over the past century or so?

Don't you remember?


I don't think CO2 controls temperature here on Earth it never has in the past when we had 20 times the amount of CO2 we have today in our atmosphere, so why should it now all of a sudden.

Just because the elite moguls of this world have decided that cheap energy will no longer be available at the finger tips of the masses.......?????

The IPCC is a political body controlled by the United Nations, now do you know who controls the United Nations...???

Quote:
You deny the basic high school level science that underpins AGW, on the basis of CO2 not being a greenhouse gas.


Why are you alarmists always twisting our words, that's rubbish and you know it.

I do believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and may have some affect on the current warming of the Earth.

What I don't believe is that man's emissions of CO2 are solely  responsible for all the warming we have had in the last 50 to 60 years.

The Earth is always warming and cooling regardless of what the CO2 is doing.

In our history there have been times when the Earth cooled and CO2 rose, there have been times when the temperature rose and CO2 declined.

Quote:
Shouldn't you be doing something else?

Like burning forests and investing in the fossil fuel industry to make short term profits?


WTF are you talking about, been on the turps have we..???

Quote:
What are you doing in here?

Who are you really?


I'm debating the false hypothesis that is anthropogenic global warming.

I'm Ajax.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #333 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, ...

Dunning–Kruger effect

Quote:
for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1.    tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2.    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3.    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #334 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am
 
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, ...

Dunning–Kruger effect

Quote:
for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1.    tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2.    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3.    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;



And who made you god to recognise the experts from the laymen.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Chimp_Logic
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #335 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:28am
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:


I don't think CO2 controls temperature here on Earth.....

I do believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and may have some affect on the current warming of the Earth



Do you actually read your own posts?

AGW is not about CO2 CONTROLLING the temperature of the Earth. Its about how much it will warm the earth as CO2 releases are increased over time. Its about how this warming will affect the climate, sea levels, reefs, ice cover etc

You believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas? Is this a religious exercise for your?

You believe that CO2 MAY have some affect?

You believe that do you? Based upon what?

Can you quantify what this effect is, and why you use the word MAY? Are you saying that rising CO2 MAY not influence the earths systems?

This is your problem

You are paranoid and BELIEVE in conspiracies, and have some aversion to people being taxed (even though you personally benefit from taxes like everyone else)

Listen Ajax,

Pack your bags, run off to some desolate island or to the Antarctic, set up your camp there and live the way you want to WITHOU paying taxes and WITHOUT scientific research informing you about what is happening.

good luck

(final post - your level clown ignorance stench has breached the 0.785 mark)
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #336 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:38am
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am:
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, ...

Dunning–Kruger effect

Quote:
for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1.    tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2.    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3.    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;



And who made you god to recognise the experts from the laymen.

Does one need to be a god?

God, expert or layman; which do you claim to be?
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greggerypeccary
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #337 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:46am
 
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 8:47am:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 9:36am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 10:24pm:
...
So based on this assessment you would recommend the international community implements NO mitigational actions against the effects of AGW?

No.  Absolutely not.
...

So what are you whining about?



Arrogant alarmists who ignore scientific principles and claim that AGW is "an undeniable fact of nature".

Arrogant alarmists who claim that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory must be against taking precautionary action.

Arrogant alarmists who assume that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory must be a Liberal supporter.

Arrogant alarmists who assume that anyone who is sceptical of the AGW theory is endangering our kids, and our kids' kids lives.

Stupid people, basically.
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Vuk11
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #338 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:47am
 
#

Probability means nothing when you fail over and over. The IPCC is the boy that cried wolf for attention and funding. But people aren't listening anymore UNTIL they prove themselves for once.

I love the way you say "best qualified", in the face of Donna Laframboise pointing out the mere graduates in the IPCC and the perversion of the scientific and peer review method they employ.(evidenced by the climategate emails and the ignorance of the IPCC to author recommendations hence people leaving in disgust) Yet when scientists disagree like the NIPCC or anyone else ("best qualified"), you discard them and attack the scientists with ad hominem instead of beating them with evidence and logic through debate. (Ad hominem = cheap lawyer tactics)

As far as skeptics are concerned the IPCC is not the best qualified, nor do they have the best credibility due their data manipulation (see Burt Rutan data analysis) and continual failure.

As to your last questions(s) about what can humanity do or aren't we forced to make a choice, did you miss the memo when it was proven (even by poor poor monckton through the research of others) that it is far more economically feasible to adapt to changes rather than try and prevent the inevitable with a tax on air. The IPCC also puts forward many solutions, but do you see many actually happening besides taxes and inefficient alternative energy subsidies?

Any opinions on why people are leaving the IPCC in disgust?
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greggerypeccary
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #339 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:51am
 
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 6:04am:
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 13th, 2013 at 6:54pm:
...
1.  The 95%+ figure was plucked out of the air.
...



... onanist*.

* greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28th, 2013 at 5:56pm:
... I'm not adverse to onanism ...




That's 100% correct.  I'm not adverse to onanism. Are you?

I'm starting to think that you have absolutely no idea what that word means.

Considering your lack of knowledge in other areas, this would come as no surprise.
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #340 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:56am
 
Vuk11 wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:47am:
[mundane denialist fare elided]

... it is far more economically feasible to adapt to changes rather than try and prevent the inevitable with a tax on air. ...

[unsubstantiated assertion elided]

As for adaptation, it depends on where global warming stops.
Quote:
We don’t know where global warming will stop but the worst case scenario is that the earth will become like its sister planet Venus, with  a temperature of 250 degrees C and rain sulphuric acid. The human race could not survive in those conditions.

Good luck with that.
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Ajax
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #341 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am
 
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:28am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:


I don't think CO2 controls temperature here on Earth.....

I do believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and may have some affect on the current warming of the Earth



Do you actually read your own posts?

AGW is not about CO2 CONTROLLING the temperature of the Earth. Its about how much it will warm the earth as CO2 releases are increased over time. Its about how this warming will affect the climate, sea levels, reefs, ice cover etc

You believe that CO2 is a greenhouse gas? Is this a religious exercise for your?

You believe that CO2 MAY have some affect?

You believe that do you? Based upon what?

Can you quantify what this effect is, and why you use the word MAY? Are you saying that rising CO2 MAY not influence the earths systems?

This is your problem

You are paranoid and BELIEVE in conspiracies, and have some aversion to people being taxed (even though you personally benefit from taxes like everyone else)

Listen Ajax,

Pack your bags, run off to some desolate island or to the Antarctic, set up your camp there and live the way you want to WITHOU paying taxes and WITHOUT scientific research informing you about what is happening.

good luck

(final post - your level clown ignorance stench has breached the 0.785 mark)


chimp your not towing the consensus line dude,

are you contradicting what your masters have cast in stone..???

Quote:
Global Warming Report Released: IPCC 95% Sure Humans Primarily Responsible For Recent Climate Change
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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Ajax
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CO2 has never controlled
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #342 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am
 
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:38am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am:
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, ...

Dunning–Kruger effect

Quote:
for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1.    tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2.    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3.    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;



And who made you god to recognise the experts from the laymen.

Does one need to be a god?

God, expert or layman; which do you claim to be?


Your the one playing god, I'm just a layman.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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A fool is certain: an
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #343 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:00am
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:51am:
...
I'm starting to think that you have absolutely no idea what that word means.
...

Clearly, English is not your first language.

o·nan·ism Quote:
  (n-nzm)
n.
1. Masturbation.

It's a worry that you habitually leave only one hand free for the keyboard.
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A fool is certain: an
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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #344 - Oct 15th, 2013 at 11:02am
 
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:57am:
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:38am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 10:10am:
# wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:59am:
Ajax wrote on Oct 15th, 2013 at 9:02am:
Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 14th, 2013 at 10:17pm:
Why are you concerned about what the IPCC are claiming in their reports?


Because their suppose to be the experts and they keep getting it wrong, ...

Dunning–Kruger effect

Quote:
for a given skill, incompetent people will:

1.    tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
2.    fail to recognize genuine skill in others;
3.    fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy;



And who made you god to recognise the experts from the laymen.

Does one need to be a god?

God, expert or layman; which do you claim to be?


Your the one playing god, ...

How so?
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