Australian Politics Forum - IPCC 95% sure about AGW

Lucas The Innkeeper

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #390 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 1:05pm

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:36am:

And heres the scientific method they used to come to that 95% conclusion Grin

Yesterday, a reporter asked me how the IPCC came up with the 95% number. Here is the exchange that I had with him:

Reporter: I’m hoping you can answer a question about the upcoming IPCC report. When the report states that scientists are “95 percent certain” that human activities are largely to cause for global warming, what does that mean? How is 95 percent calculated? What is the basis for it? And if the certainty rate has risen from 90 in 2007 to 95 percent now, does that mean that the likelihood of something is greater? Or that scientists are just more certain? And is there a difference?

JC: The 95% is basically expert judgment, it is a negotiated figure among the authors. The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me.

Reporter: You mean they sit around and say, “How certain are you?” “Oh, I feel about 95 percent certain. Michael over there at Penn State feels a little more certain. And Judy at Georgia Tech feels a little less. So, yeah, overall I’d say we’re about 95 percent certain.” Please tell me it’s more rigorous than that.

JC: Well I wasn’t in the room, but last report they said 90%, and perhaps they felt it was appropriate or politic that they show progress and up it to 95%.

Reporter: So it really is as subjective as that?

JC: As far as I know, this is what goes on. All this has never been documented.

Oh that's PURE GOLD Grin

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Vuk11

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #391 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 1:08pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 12:28pm:

cracks are appearing within your congregation of temple worshipers Mr Ajax....

why would you AGREE to NOT disagree with one of your fellow priests in public?

He was talking to Muso about satellites measuring sea level rises, I haven't looked into it yet. I was curious of his and Muso's opinion. To my knowledge Muso isn't a priest nor is he against AGW, however I will now refer to him as the priest

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #392 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 1:24pm

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 1:08pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 12:28pm:

cracks are appearing within your congregation of temple worshipers Mr Ajax....

why would you AGREE to NOT disagree with one of your fellow priests in public?

He was talking to Muso about satellites measuring sea level rises, I haven't looked into it yet. I was curious of his and Muso's opinion. To my knowledge Muso isn't a priest nor is he against AGW, however I will now refer to him as the priest

nothing wrong with priests, if they are attracted to the truth

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Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #393 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:17pm ,,,the past decade was the warmest on record, but the deniers are dancing in the street declaring a cooling period has just taken place
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Vuk11

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #394 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:27pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:17pm:

,,,the past decade was the warmest on record, but the deniers are dancing in the street declaring a cooling period has just taken place

Lol there's a long term downward trend, picking an arbitrary set of data and going "muh hottest on record".

Not to mention besides the below graph the current temperature is cold compared to the last I don't know millions of years

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Muh_hottest_on_record.png (134 KB | 35 )

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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #395 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:31pm Don't forget we are coming out of a mini ice age. All is to be expected, the fact that it is far less than expected goes to show it's not as catastrophic as they think seems quite natural so far. Look below .
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #396 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:33pm

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:17pm:

,,,the past decade was the warmest on record, but the deniers are dancing in the street declaring a cooling period has just taken place

Lol there's a long term downward trend, picking an arbitrary set of data and going "muh hottest on record".

Not to mention besides the below graph the current temperature is cold compared to the last I don't know millions of years

so your detailed graph shows temperature variation for an astonishing period of January to May in 2010?

Well done - amazing insights over this quarter

and the base line is DECEMBER the previous year - lol - a hot summer month.

what did you expect your little graph trend to do, in January to May if compared to December?

youre a clown

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Mini Ice Age (2014-2029)
Dr Sircus cures cancer with Baking Soda and Magnesium - Jethro the MENTAL GIANT & his flute madness

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Vuk11

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #397 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:38pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:33pm:

Vuk11 wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:27pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 2:17pm:

,,,the past decade was the warmest on record, but the deniers are dancing in the street declaring a cooling period has just taken place

Lol there's a long term downward trend, picking an arbitrary set of data and going "muh hottest on record".

Not to mention besides the below graph the current temperature is cold compared to the last I don't know millions of years

so your detailed graph shows temperature variation for an astonishing period of January to May in 2010?

Well done - amazing insights over this quarter

I knew you would say that sorry I'm trying to copy the explanation.

Quote:

The IPCC/AGW claim:
"May 2010 was the hottest may on record"

His reply: (Burt Rutan)
The intended result - you now think that dangerous global warming is back, after the cold winter of 2009. The truth- summer heat recovery is not exceptional in the human-emissions era.

Graph is for the last 130 years. Summer heat recovery extent has declined and is unchanged by human emissions.

It's an example of data manipulation for the claim of "this is the hottest on record muh warming blah blah".

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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #398 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 4:50pm vuk11 has been exposed as a pseudo agitator to provide a premise for discussion very funny wasting everybodys time with re hashed spin data that was debunked in the past several times bye
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namnugenot Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 639 NSW Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #399 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 4:58pm The IPCC are 100% sure they want to keep their snouts in the trough. And that they want it to remain full.
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Vuk11

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #400 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:05pm

pseudo agitator that is ridiculous Grin

There is no a single refutation that exists to Burt Rutan's data analysis of the IPCC and Mr Gore's manipulation. Even Skepticalscience the biggest AGW supporter community haven't done it.

Above I was merely adding context to the graph I posted.
Many claims of "hottest on record" are easily debunked with historical data when put in context. The graph I posted was to one claim of 2010 being the hottest may on record. This happens quite a lot and sadly we can't just keep creating graphs for every single attempt by AGW proponents to say "this was the hottest *insert arbitrary time scale here* on record".

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Vuk11

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #401 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:08pm

To all that are curious:

http://rps3.com/Files/AGW/EngrCritique.AGW-Science.v4.3.pdf

Just look at the damn data. It's inescapable.
The tree ring fraud, the graph manipulation, the arbitrary trend lines, the heat vents of air conditioners next to temperature recording devices, the devices next to waste treatment plants, the lies of the IPCC and Mr Gore. It's all there exposed by a guy who's spent his professional life doing data analysis for his Aero engineering, for which he is considered a "legend". (Since so many here are concerned about "credentials")

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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #402 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:12pm Here he points out some blatant cherry picking. From slide 28 onward it starts to get really juicy
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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #403 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:15pm vuk11 muso
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Vuk11 Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 1797 QLD Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #404 - Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:23pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Oct 20^th, 2013 at 5:15pm: vuk11 muso Come again?
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