Australian Politics Forum - IPCC 95% sure about AGW

muso

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #60 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 6:52pm

Vuk11 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 6:02pm:

muso wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:56pm:

I was also sceptical of this, which is why I read the technical specifications for the Jason 2 Satellite (to be specific, the Poseidon-3 precision altimeter installed on that satellite). There is a thread dedicated to this. Three independant agencies came up with a precision of between 0.4 to 0.6mm in terms of annual increase in sea level change.

If you are genuinely sceptical, I suggest that you do the same.

Cheers I'll have a look.
Of course I'm genuine!

Sorry. Good to hear it.

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Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #61 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:28pm Looks like crazy climate kooks want us to believe in disastrous man made global warming for exactly the same reason as crazy religious kooks want us to believe in their own crazy religion ... ie. because we said so Don't worry oh mighty science I have not given up on you, I have not succumbed to mass hysteria in your place
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #62 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:31pm When you can actually make intelligent comments about the reports, people will start to take you seriously. Until then, you just add to the noise.
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greggerypeccary

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #63 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:33pm

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:28pm:

Looks like crazy climate kooks want us to believe in disastrous man made global warming for exactly the same reason as crazy religious kooks want us to believe in their own crazy religion ... ie. because we said so

That's exactly right.

"We're 95% sure ... 97% of scientists agree ... "

Are we dealing with maths or science?

Faith, more like it.

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Rider

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #64 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

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greggerypeccary

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #65 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:41pm

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

Yes.

The answer is:

"if you don't believe in AGW then you are endangering the lives of your kids, and your kids' kids, and their kids, and you will undoubtedly be the cause of the ultimate destruction of the planet Earth. You just have to believe us, because we know we're right and thus we are better than you. Just trust us on the 95%"

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Rider

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #66 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:48pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:41pm:

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

Yes.

The answer is:

"if you don't believe in AGW then you are endangering the lives of your kids, and your kids' kids, and their kids, and you will undoubtedly be the cause of the ultimate destruction of the planet Earth. You just have to believe us, because we know we're right and thus we are better than you. Just trust us on the 95%"

Ahhh, but is there a majority consensus of the consensus.... Cheesy

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greggerypeccary

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #67 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:52pm

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:48pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:41pm:

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

Yes.

The answer is:

"if you don't believe in AGW then you are endangering the lives of your kids, and your kids' kids, and their kids, and you will undoubtedly be the cause of the ultimate destruction of the planet Earth. You just have to believe us, because we know we're right and thus we are better than you. Just trust us on the 95%"

Ahhh, but is there a majority consensus of the consensus.... Cheesy

Just trust me, OK?

Wink

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Rider

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #68 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:06pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:52pm:

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:48pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:41pm:

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

Yes.

The answer is:

"if you don't believe in AGW then you are endangering the lives of your kids, and your kids' kids, and their kids, and you will undoubtedly be the cause of the ultimate destruction of the planet Earth. You just have to believe us, because we know we're right and thus we are better than you. Just trust us on the 95%"

Ahhh, but is there a majority consensus of the consensus.... Cheesy

Just trust me, OK?

Wink

haha well I can't argue with that UN style of logic. At any rate, kids these days get it too easy, they'll need a challenge in the future Grin

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 138585 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #69 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:08pm Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:06pm: At any rate, kids these days get it too easy, they'll need a challenge in the future Exactly! I've been saying that for ages. Every generation has their challenges. I love my kids to bits, but poo, they'll just have to learn to adapt.
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Innocent bystander

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #70 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:26pm

Rider wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 7:37pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

[highlight]I would like to know where this 95% comes from. [/highlight] Given that temperature has stalled for 17 years, every model has failed comprehensively and every other prediction has fallen over, surely the degree of confidence should have FALLEN and fallen dramatically. if they hade even gone from 90% back to 85% it would have looked at least a little credible, but INCREASED confidence in the face of such massive failure shows it to be what we all know it is. WANK.

Does anyone have an answer yet, how is this 'factoid' arrived at. What is the methodology behind this neatly packaged headline?

Apparently the only answer put forward so far by global warming cranks as to why we must turn our lives upside down to appease the great god of global warming is this pathetic effort ...

Yesterday, a reporter asked me how the IPCC came up with the 95% number. Here is the exchange that I had with him:

Reporter: I’m hoping you can answer a question about the upcoming IPCC report. When the report states that scientists are “95 percent certain” that human activities are largely to cause for global warming, what does that mean? How is 95 percent calculated? What is the basis for it? And if the certainty rate has risen from 90 in 2007 to 95 percent now, does that mean that the likelihood of something is greater? Or that scientists are just more certain? And is there a difference?

JC: The 95% is basically expert judgment, it is a negotiated figure among the authors. The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me.

Reporter: You mean they sit around and say, “How certain are you?” “Oh, I feel about 95 percent certain. Michael over there at Penn State feels a little more certain. And Judy at Georgia Tech feels a little less. So, yeah, overall I’d say we’re about 95 percent certain.” Please tell me it’s more rigorous than that.

JC: Well I wasn’t in the room, but last report they said 90%, and perhaps they felt it was appropriate or politic that they show progress and up it to 95%.

Reporter: So it really is as subjective as that?

JC: As far as I know, this is what goes on. All this has never been documented.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 138585 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #71 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:40pm They'll be looking back at us in 100 years time and laughing their freakin' heads off.
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #72 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:51pm How many years more can we reasonably expect to live? - and I mean the posters on this blog. I wonder what they'll be saying 25 years from now.
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greggerypeccary Gold Member Online Australian Politics Posts: 138585 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #73 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:53pm muso wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:51pm: I wonder what they'll be saying 25 years from now. "Have you heard the new One Direction song?"
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muso

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Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #74 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:38pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:53pm:

muso wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 8:51pm:

I wonder what they'll be saying 25 years from now.

"Have you heard the new One Direction song?" Undecided

You mean the New Directions hit of 2038 called "The smell of death" ?

Quote:

Already one billion people in the world go hungry every day—that’s one in every seven people. Every year one third of child deaths are caused in part by under-nutrition. World population continues to grow and is expected to reach 9 billion by 2050. To feed this many people and their rising demand for animal products, overall food production must rise by 70% from 2005–07 levels. But a 5°F to 9°F rise in
global average temperature could reduce grain yields by 30% to 50%, and global food supplies even more. The combination of decreasing food production in the face of increasing food demand would likely lead to widespread social unrest and hunger —even catastrophic global famine.

http://www.psr.org/resources/climate-change-and-famine.html

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« Last Edit: Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:43pm by muso »

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