Australian Politics Forum - IPCC 95% sure about AGW

Innocent bystander

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 4220
Gender: male

IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:36am

And heres the scientific method they used to come to that 95% conclusion Grin

Yesterday, a reporter asked me how the IPCC came up with the 95% number. Here is the exchange that I had with him:

Reporter: I’m hoping you can answer a question about the upcoming IPCC report. When the report states that scientists are “95 percent certain” that human activities are largely to cause for global warming, what does that mean? How is 95 percent calculated? What is the basis for it? And if the certainty rate has risen from 90 in 2007 to 95 percent now, does that mean that the likelihood of something is greater? Or that scientists are just more certain? And is there a difference?

JC: The 95% is basically expert judgment, it is a negotiated figure among the authors. The increase from 90-95% means that they are more certain. How they can justify this is beyond me.

Reporter: You mean they sit around and say, “How certain are you?” “Oh, I feel about 95 percent certain. Michael over there at Penn State feels a little more certain. And Judy at Georgia Tech feels a little less. So, yeah, overall I’d say we’re about 95 percent certain.” Please tell me it’s more rigorous than that.

JC: Well I wasn’t in the room, but last report they said 90%, and perhaps they felt it was appropriate or politic that they show progress and up it to 95%.

Reporter: So it really is as subjective as that?

JC: As far as I know, this is what goes on. All this has never been documented.

Back to top

IP Logged

skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #1 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:43am Link? Was it that phoney tony fellow assaulter of women Piers Ackerman or Dolt? Or just another confused sour prick form News lmd? Or you just made it up. Okey doky.
Back to top	freedivers other forum- POLITICAL ANIMAL Click onWWW below IP Logged

salad in Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 5941	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #2 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:49am This is nothing more than a crude attempt by the IPCC to usurp the holy Bible. also includes other holy books that have a loose use by date for the world and its inhabitants.
Back to top	The ALP, the progressive party, the party of ideas, the workers' friend, is the only Australian political party to roast four young Australians in roof cavities. SHAME! SHAME! SHAME! IP Logged

Frances Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3577 In a Castle in the Hills Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #3 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:50am Something that may or may not be a quote and is posted without names or sources
Back to top	Sure God created man before woman. But then you always make a rough draft before the final masterpiece. IP Logged

____ Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 33410 Australia Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #4 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:51am Why he is keeping the link secret Andrew Bolt Opinion http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipcc_...
Back to top	IP Logged

skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #5 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:53am ____ wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 9:51am: Why he is keeping the link secret Andrew Bolt Opinion http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/ipcc_... OH LOL give me ten dollars I picked it as Doltism.
Back to top	freedivers other forum- POLITICAL ANIMAL Click onWWW below IP Logged

____ Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 33410 Australia Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #6 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:00am Yep I.B rejects the science of deadly climate change for the religion of Doltism
Back to top	IP Logged

Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #7 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:06am Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola
Back to top	IP Logged

cods

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 88048

Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #8 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:15am

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:06am:

Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola Grin

in another ten years they will be saying...

hehehehehehe

we got it all wrong...

who do we send the BILL too?

Back to top

IP Logged

____

Gold Member

Offline

Australian Politics

Posts: 33410
Australia
Gender: male

Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #9 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:21am

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:06am:

Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola Grin

Yet you still haven't supplied links to these reputable 'climate' scientists.

Meanwhile these sceptics refute basic science.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwtt51gvaJQ

Back to top

IP Logged

skippy.

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 20882
Gender: male

Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #10 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:25am

cods wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:15am:

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:06am:

Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola Grin

in another ten years they will be saying...

hehehehehehe

we got it all wrong...

who do we send the BILL too?

Another fool with a less than basic education that thinks she knows more than the overwhelming majority of the scientific community. Roll Eyes

a definite pattern within the conga line.

Back to top

freedivers other forum- POLITICAL ANIMAL
Click onWWW below

IP Logged

muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #11 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:38am The IPCC Report is extremely conservative. It understates the risk. Virtually any climatologist will echo that sentiment.
Back to top	1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not IP Logged

Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #12 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:50am What on Earth do climate hysterics want links for?, they won't read them.
Back to top	IP Logged

muso

Gold Member

Offline

Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male

Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW
Reply #13 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 11:16am

Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:06am:

Haha, idiots think Bolt wrote it, Bolt is the devil in their climate religion, no it was from one of tens of thousands of other reputable scientists that think AGW is a bunch of crapola Grin

Here's a self-proclaimed reputable climate scientist who also awarded himself a Nobel Prize:
Quote:

What do you get when you take a man who lies about being a climate specialist, who knows nothing at all about climate science, and introduce him to Sheriff Joe Arpaio and the topic of Presisdent Obama’s birth certificate? You get a man who lies about Obama’s birth certificate and knows nothing at all about Obama’s birth.

If you want to know how little Monckton knows about climate science, consider this fact reported by dedmogblog.com, that “Monckton also cites the Cambrian Period as proof plants love carbon dioxide, although it was a time period where there were no land plants.”

http://www.politicususa.com/2012/05/29/christopher-monckton-man-lies-credentials...

He's an expert in PhotoShop too.

Back to top

1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not

IP Logged

Phemanderac Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 3507 Gender:	Re: IPCC 95% sure about AGW Reply #14 - Sep 28^th, 2013 at 12:08pm Innocent bystander wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 10:50am: What on Earth do climate hysterics want links for?, they won't read them. That's more than a bit of pot kettle black matey. I see no evidence that your team read anything that is posted, including linked material. In fact, that would be hypocrisy you saying that.
Back to top	On the 26th of January you are all invited to celebrate little white penal day... "They're not rules as such, more like guidelines" Pirates of the Caribbean.. IP Logged