Australian Politics Forum - Australia to see worse drought

Ajax

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CO2 has never controlled
temperature on Earth

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Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #45 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 6:37am:

Ajax wrote on Oct 29^th, 2013 at 8:26am:

...
Then show me how this warming would effect ENSO.
...

I don't claim to know the science. On the evidence of your performance here, you're even less capable of comprehending the mechanisms than I am.
ENSO and global warming Quote:

During the last several decades, the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased, although observation of ENSO for much longer is needed to detect robust changes. The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon or the result of global climate changes toward global warming.

The studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, is shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend, the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.

The exact changes happening to ENSO in the future is uncertain: Different models make different predictions. It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become whttp://www.ozpolitic.com/yabbfiles/Templates/Forum/default/url.gifeaker than it was. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other. More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate.

Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say Quote:

Scientists say they are more certain than ever about the impact of global warming on a critical weather pattern.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense

Global Warming May Worsen Effects of El Niño, La Niña Events Quote:

“Due to a warmer and moister atmosphere,” said co-author Baylor Fox-Kemper, of the University of Colorado in a press release, “the impacts of El Niño are changing even though El Niño itself doesn’t change.”

Ajax wrote on Oct 30^th, 2013 at 8:53am:

...
Would you like me to talk in chinesse, ...

Would you be less irrational in another language?

Sorry dude but Wikipedia is not a reliable source of information when it comes to talking about the actual science and nature of things.

Maybe useful as a reference but nothing more.

Do you think the climate models of the CSIRO are any better than the climate models of the IPCC.....???

The majority of climate models around the world have about the same ability in predicting the future temperature and its affects.

I have not heard one being superior to another.

And we all know that anything coming out of computer climate models is crystal ball stuff at the very best.

Nice try but i'm afraid another fail.......!!!!

Will Global Warming Increase the Intensity of El Niño?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/15/will-global-warming-increase-the-intensity...

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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#

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A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #46 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 11:13am

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am:

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 6:37am:

Ajax wrote on Oct 29^th, 2013 at 8:26am:

...
Then show me how this warming would effect ENSO.
...

I don't claim to know the science. On the evidence of your performance here, you're even less capable of comprehending the mechanisms than I am.
ENSO and global warming Quote:

During the last several decades, the number of El Niño events increased, and the number of La Niña events decreased, although observation of ENSO for much longer is needed to detect robust changes. The question is whether this is a random fluctuation or a normal instance of variation for that phenomenon or the result of global climate changes toward global warming.

The studies of historical data show the recent El Niño variation is most likely linked to global warming. For example, one of the most recent results, even after subtracting the positive influence of decadal variation, is shown to be possibly present in the ENSO trend, the amplitude of the ENSO variability in the observed data still increases, by as much as 60% in the last 50 years.

The exact changes happening to ENSO in the future is uncertain: Different models make different predictions. It may be that the observed phenomenon of more frequent and stronger El Niño events occurs only in the initial phase of the global warming, and then (e.g., after the lower layers of the ocean get warmer, as well), El Niño will become whttp://www.ozpolitic.com/yabbfiles/Templates/Forum/default/url.gifeaker than it was. It may also be that the stabilizing and destabilizing forces influencing the phenomenon will eventually compensate for each other. More research is needed to provide a better answer to that question. The ENSO is considered to be a potential tipping element in Earth's climate.

Global warming will increase intensity of El Nino, scientists say Quote:

Scientists say they are more certain than ever about the impact of global warming on a critical weather pattern.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) occurs in the Pacific Ocean but plays an important part in the world's climate system.

Researchers have until now been unsure as to how rising temperatures would affect ENSO in the future.

But this new study suggests that droughts and floods driven by ENSO will be more intense

Global Warming May Worsen Effects of El Niño, La Niña Events Quote:

“Due to a warmer and moister atmosphere,” said co-author Baylor Fox-Kemper, of the University of Colorado in a press release, “the impacts of El Niño are changing even though El Niño itself doesn’t change.”

Ajax wrote on Oct 30^th, 2013 at 8:53am:

...
Would you like me to talk in chinesse, ...

Would you be less irrational in another language?

Sorry dude but Wikipedia is not a reliable source of information when it comes to talking about the actual science and nature of things.

Maybe useful as a reference but nothing more.

You ignore all links but Wikipedia, thus tacitly acknowledging their accuracy.

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am:

Do you think the climate models of the CSIRO are any better than the climate models of the IPCC.....???

I'm no better qualified to judge than you are.

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am:

The majority of climate models around the world have about the same ability in predicting the future temperature and its affects.

I have not heard one being superior to another.

And we all know that anything coming out of computer climate models is crystal ball stuff at the very best.

You can't substantiate any of that, can you?

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am:

Nice try but i'm afraid another fail.......!!!!

Given your tacit acceptance of the majority of links, your assertion is irrational.

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 7:53am:

Denialist link elided.

Evidently, changing languages will not make you any less irrational.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #47 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 11:20am

# wrote on Oct 30^th, 2013 at 8:22pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 28^th, 2013 at 7:30pm:

# wrote on Oct 26^th, 2013 at 3:15pm:

Effective sarcasm relies on skill, knowledge and intelligence.

...
Don't feel too bad.

Had I paid attention in school, I might have learned enough to understand effective sarcasm.

Indeed.

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#

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A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #48 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:13pm

# wrote on Oct 30^th, 2013 at 8:22pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 28^th, 2013 at 7:30pm:

# wrote on Oct 26^th, 2013 at 3:15pm:

Effective sarcasm relies on skill, knowledge and intelligence.

...
Don't feel too bad.

Had you paid attention in school, you might have learned enough to manage effective sarcasm. Perhaps if you'd resisted the urge to keep at least one hand under the desk top* at all times?

* greggerypeccary wrote on Sep 28^th, 2013 at 5:56pm:

... I'm not adverse to onanism ...

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 11:20am:

# wrote on Oct 30^th, 2013 at 8:22pm:

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 28^th, 2013 at 7:30pm:

# wrote on Oct 26^th, 2013 at 3:15pm:

Effective sarcasm relies on skill, knowledge and intelligence.

...
Don't feel too bad.

Had I paid attention in school, I might have learned enough to understand effective sarcasm.

Indeed.

What a poor, pathetic wanker is greggerypeccary.

Compulsive troll;
Compulsive liar and;
Compulsive wanker.

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Innocent bystander Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 4220 Gender:	Re: Australia to see worse drought Reply #49 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:15pm # wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:13pm: Indeed.What a poor, pathetic wanker is greggerypeccary. Compulsive troll; Compulsive liar and; Compulsive wanker. [/quote] And don't forget Compulsive denier
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Ajax

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CO2 has never controlled
temperature on Earth

Posts: 10982
Australia
Gender: male

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #50 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:39pm

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 11:13am:

You ignore all links but Wikipedia, thus tacitly acknowledging their accuracy.

Not at all, I had a quick squiz, and once again its computer circulation models that are spitting out these predictions.

And we all know how accurate they are right.....!!!!!

Quote:

I'm no better qualified to judge than you are.

We're both in the same boat, but I bet you have perused anthropogenic Global Warming papers and I bet if you did get lost in the middle sections where they tell you how they integrated the polynomials with calculus and what not.

I'm sure that by reading the abstract and the conclusion you do understand the bottom line of what they are doing.

Quote:

You can't substantiate any of that, can you?

Yes I can with the 1990 predictions of the IPCC computer models which said that we would have 0.2 degree per decade of warming (that's being generous) and we actual had 0.05 degree warming over the last 15 years.

Not to mention that the IPCC scientists themselves actually did say way back in 1995 that the computer models aren't really that accurate and cannot reproduce the earth's climate.

Until the IPCC muzzled them and unequivocally wrote that the models are good.

Quote:

Given your tacit acceptance of the majority of links, your assertion is irrational.

Why do you think I waffled on about computer models...???

Quote:

Evidently, changing languages will not make you any less irrational.

well since we're both writing English and you still can't understand I thought gibberish might clear things up a bit.... Cheesy

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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#

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A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #51 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 8:45pm

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

...
Quote:

You can't substantiate any of that, can you?

Yes I can with the 1990 predictions of the IPCC computer models which said that we would have 0.2 degree per decade of warming (that's being generous) and we actual had 0.05 degree warming over the last 15 years.

Not to mention that the IPCC scientists themselves actually did say way back in 1995 that the computer models aren't really that accurate and cannot reproduce the earth's climate.

Until the IPCC muzzled them and unequivocally wrote that the models are good.
...

Assertion is not substantiated by further assertion. You'll need to link to the sources. Credible sources, of course.

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greggerypeccary

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Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #52 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 8:49pm

Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:15pm:

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:13pm:

Indeed.What a poor, pathetic wanker is greggerypeccary.

Compulsive troll;
Compulsive liar and;
Compulsive wanker.

And don't forget Compulsive denier Grin

Absolutely!

What a terrible person I am.

Considering that, I wonder why David (#) feels compelled to reply to every single post I make.

I think he's stalking me.

Maybe it's the heat.

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Ajax

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CO2 has never controlled
temperature on Earth

Posts: 10982
Australia
Gender: male

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #53 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 9:13pm

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 8:45pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

...
Quote:

You can't substantiate any of that, can you?

Yes I can with the 1990 predictions of the IPCC computer models which said that we would have 0.2 degree per decade of warming (that's being generous) and we actual had 0.05 degree warming over the last 15 years.

Not to mention that the IPCC scientists themselves actually did say way back in 1995 that the computer models aren't really that accurate and cannot reproduce the earth's climate.

Until the IPCC muzzled them and unequivocally wrote that the models are good.
...

Assertion is not substantiated by further assertion. You'll need to link to the sources. Credible sources, of course.

Not assertions rather FACTS.

This source good enough..................???

Quote:

Based on current model results, we predict:

Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C – 0.5°C)”

[IPCC FAR summary]

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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery & prison" Regas Feraeos

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Innocent bystander

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Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #54 - Oct 31^st, 2013 at 9:18pm

greggerypeccary wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 8:49pm:

Innocent bystander wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:15pm:

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:13pm:

Indeed.What a poor, pathetic wanker is greggerypeccary.

Compulsive troll;
Compulsive liar and;
Compulsive wanker.

And don't forget Compulsive denier Grin

Absolutely!

What a terrible person I am.

Considering that, I wonder why David (#) feels compelled to reply to every single post I make.

I think he's stalking me.

Maybe it's the heat.

Global warming make people go cwazy Cheesy

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#

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A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603

Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #55 - Nov 1^st, 2013 at 7:18am

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 9:13pm:

# wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 8:45pm:

Ajax wrote on Oct 31^st, 2013 at 1:39pm:

...
Quote:

You can't substantiate any of that, can you?

Yes I can with the 1990 predictions of the IPCC computer models which said that we would have 0.2 degree per decade of warming (that's being generous) and we actual had 0.05 degree warming over the last 15 years.

Not to mention that the IPCC scientists themselves actually did say way back in 1995 that the computer models aren't really that accurate and cannot reproduce the earth's climate.

Until the IPCC muzzled them and unequivocally wrote that the models are good.
...

Assertion is not substantiated by further assertion. You'll need to link to the sources. Credible sources, of course.

Not assertions rather FACTS.

This source good enough..................???

Quote:

Based on current model results, we predict:

Under the IPCC Business-as-Usual (Scenario A) emissions of greenhouse gases, a rate of increase of global mean temperature during the next century of about 0.3C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2°C – 0.5°C)”

[IPCC FAR summary]

What do you think you see there?

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namnugenot Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 639 NSW Gender:	Re: Australia to see worse drought Reply #56 - Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:20am Stop wasting everyone's time with fortune telling.
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Chimp_Logic Gold Member Offline πολιτικός Posts: 4826 Mawson Base Gender:	Re: Australia to see worse drought Reply #57 - Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:37am namnugenot wrote on Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:20am: Stop wasting everyone's time with fortune telling. ...and yet you tolerate the stock market
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namnugenot

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Re: Australia to see worse drought
Reply #58 - Nov 1^st, 2013 at 10:09am

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:37am:

namnugenot wrote on Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:20am:

Stop wasting everyone's time with fortune telling.

...and yet you tolerate the stock market

If you want to point to someone making stock market predictions for between 2050 and 2100 go right ahead...I'm happy to laugh at them too. Every year one of the networks gets a group of highly paid economists to make predictions for the comings year on a range of things like interest rates, the stock market, etc. They sound very plausible, giving detailed and technical reasons and analysis and showing graphs. It is rare that one gets one right....over a 12 month period. Other than that I don't waste any time on those pack of tools either...however if (and this is purely hypothetical as I don't think I've ever been on a forum that discusses the "market") I was on a finance forum I'd be telling them the exact same thing.

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BatteriesNotIncluded Gold Member Offline MediocrityNET: because people died for this! Posts: 26966	Re: Australia to see worse drought Reply #59 - Nov 1^st, 2013 at 12:40pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:37am: namnugenot wrote on Nov 1^st, 2013 at 9:20am: Stop wasting everyone's time with fortune telling. ...and yet you tolerate the stock market Broadcast on the hour every hour no less
Back to top	Sure....they're anti competitive as any subsidised job is. It wouldn't be there without the tax payer. Very damned difficult for a brainwashed collectivist to understand that I know.... (swaggy) IP Logged