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Who ya gonna trust? (Read 393 times)
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A fool is certain: an
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Who ya gonna trust?
Oct 22nd, 2013 at 8:13am
 
Everyone gets it wrong sometimes. Who is most likely to get it right; someone expert or someone inexpert?

Why We Make Bad Decisions

By NOREENA HERTZ
Published: October 19, 2013
...
Wendy MacNaughton

Quote:
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It is also crucial to ask probing questions not only of the experts but of ourselves. This is because we bring into our decision-making process flaws and errors of our own. All of us show bias when it comes to what information we take in. We typically focus on anything that agrees with the outcome we want.

We need to be aware of our natural born optimism, for that harms good decision making, too. The neuroscientist Tali Sharot conducted a study in which she asked volunteers what they believed the chances were of various unpleasant events’ occurring — events like being robbed or developing Parkinson’s disease. She then told them what the real chances of such an event happening actually were. What she discovered was fascinating. When the volunteers were given information that was better than they hoped or expected — say, for example, that the risk of complications in surgery was only 10 percent when they thought it was 30 percent — they adjusted closer to the new risk percentages presented. But if it was worse, they tended to ignore this new information.

This could explain why smokers often persist with smoking despite the overwhelming evidence that it’s bad for them. If their unconscious belief is that they won’t get lung cancer, for every warning from an antismoking campaigner, their brain is giving a lot more weight to that story of the 99-year-old lady who smokes 50 cigarettes a day but is still going strong.

We need to acknowledge our tendency to incorrectly process challenging news and actively push ourselves to hear the bad as well as the good. It felt great when I stumbled across information that implied I didn’t need any serious treatment at all. When we find data that supports our hopes we appear to get a dopamine rush similar to the one we get if we eat chocolate, have sex or fall in love. But it’s often information that challenges our existing opinions or wishful desires that yields the greatest insights. I was lucky that my boyfriend alerted me to my most dopamine-drugged moments. The dangerous allure of the information we want to hear is something we need to be more vigilant about, in the medical consulting room and beyond.
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Ajax
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CO2 has never controlled
temperature on Earth

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Re: Who ya gonna trust?
Reply #1 - Oct 22nd, 2013 at 4:46pm
 
I'm certainly not going to trust some smacking idiots who proclaim to be the experts and cant get anything right in any of their predictions.

Who then go on to say that all natural disasters are happening because of AGW.

Or

That the oceans have taken up the missing heat.

Or

Any excuse to justify their short comings.
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1. There has never been a more serious assault on our standard of living than Anthropogenic Global Warming..Ajax
2. "One hour of freedom is worth more than 40 years of slavery &  prison" Regas Feraeos
 
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