Australian Politics Forum - Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs

Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #150 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 4:48pm

Lee

Sieve through the medical science data base.

There are plenty or articles describing non-linear and chaotic behaviour of the Human Heart.

Lots of models as well.

The periodic and chaotic behaviour of the human heart can be modelled and predicted very well using mathematical approaches and computer models.

(People are often suspicious of "COMPUTER MODELING" thinking its some abstract computer machine crunching numbers because scientists cant solve a problem. Computer models are merely solving mathematical equations (usually solutions requiring numerical analysis) against a backdrop of assumptions and input data. The output or prediction has an error associated with it. Almost every problem in engineering is solved by simulations, modelling and numerical techniques such as Finite Element analysis. The basis is still mathematical and scientific. Very few problems are ideal in nature whereby you can get away with simple theoretical characterisation, that has analytical solutions to the equations)

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muso

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #151 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:03pm

lee wrote on Nov 15^th, 2013 at 10:04pm:

Now if you can just point me to the calculation on Climate Sensitivity to CO2.

Climate is a chaotic system.

Climate models are not stochastic. They are largely deterministic. They are based on physics.

Having said that, it all depends on the degree of resolution. Short term weather for example, is more stochastic than deterministic.

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lee

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #152 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:15pm

In peer reviewed papers by Tebaldi and Knutti, who studied climate models, they showed that climate models from the same stable generally only altered parameters on a few variables.

As I've intimated before the models are steaming along, while there is a hiatus in the trend. The IPCC in their wisdom have acknowledged the hiatus now, but don't know why most of the models are not picking it up. Two models MAY be tracking correctly, it is too early to tell. Given that there are over 100 models that is not a great percentage.

And yet the IPCC's confidence has gone up a notch. It certainly can't be on the back of the admissions.

The Climate Sensitivity is used as fixed determinant in the models, it will always project an error, if it is in error, and while fiddling with the other parameters can overcome that short term, it can be no long term solution.

Just as an aside, and I don't know the answer -"How many variables are there for Climate"?

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« Last Edit: Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:23pm by lee »

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #153 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:35pm

muso wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:03pm:

lee wrote on Nov 15^th, 2013 at 10:04pm:

Now if you can just point me to the calculation on Climate Sensitivity to CO2.

Climate is a chaotic system.

Climate models are not stochastic. They are largely deterministic. They are based on physics

.

Having said that, it all depends on the degree of resolution. Short term weather for example, is more stochastic than deterministic.

that's true - and it's almost entirely an empirical type determinism that often uses numerical techniques in order to solve the equations within the model - especially the constitutive equations relating to atmospheric and oceanic flows etc.

As far as short term predictions of weather events is concerned, the reason for the often large predictive errors is the sensitivity to initial conditions. The approach is still essentially an empirical based determinism and founded in physics.

Weather and Climate are often confused

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #154 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:39pm

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:15pm:

In peer reviewed papers by Tebaldi and Knutti, who studied climate models, they showed that climate models from the same stable generally only altered parameters on a few variables.

As I've intimated before the models are steaming along, while there is a hiatus in the trend. The IPCC in their wisdom have acknowledged the hiatus now, but don't know why most of the models are not picking it up. Two models MAY be tracking correctly, it is too early to tell. Given that there are over 100 models that is not a great percentage.

And yet the IPCC's confidence has gone up a notch. It certainly can't be on the back of the admissions.

The Climate Sensitivity is used as fixed determinant in the models, it will always project an error, if it is in error, and while fiddling with the other parameters can overcome that short term, it can be no long term solution.

Just as an aside, and I don't know the answer -"How many variables are there for Climate"?

Lee,

Have you ever come across a climate model which predicts a decrease in average global temperature as atmospheric CO2 level continue to rise??? (or even a static global temperature as CO2 rises)

I haven't - all climate models that attempt to predict the thermal retention effect of rising CO2, show an increase in average global temperature.

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lee

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #155 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:41pm

Yep, and water vapour is all positive feedback.

Edit: When a cloud passes the face of the sun as you are standing under, you feel it cool. When the sky is overcast of a night temperatures tend to stay higher due to an insulating effect. Therefore it seems logical that water vapour can be both a negative and positive feedback.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #156 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:49pm

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:41pm:

Yep, and water vapour is all positive feedback.

Edit: When a cloud passes the face of the sun as you are standing under, you feel it cool. When the sky is overcast of a night temperatures tend to stay higher due to an insulating effect. Therefore it seems logical that water vapour can be both a negative and positive feedback.

...water vapour in the earths atmosphere contributes the most to the overall thermal retention rate of the planet. Without it there would be a lot of ice on the earths surface

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #157 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:55pm

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:41pm:

Yep, and water vapour is all positive feedback.

Edit: When a cloud passes the face of the sun as you are standing under, you feel it cool. When the sky is overcast of a night temperatures tend to stay higher due to an insulating effect. Therefore it seems logical that water vapour can be both a negative and positive feedback.

It's a lot more complex than that.

Water vapour itself is invisible (it doesn't absorb in the visible part of the spectrum) . Water vapour feedbacks are always positive. That can be measured.

Clouds are made up of water droplets. That's not water vapour. They are associated with both positive and negative feedbacks. Cloud feedback is where it gets really complex.

Do you understand how water vapour is a positive feedback? Can you explain what you know, so that I can see how much I need to explain further?

Cloud feedbacks are a different subject.

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« Last Edit: Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:05pm by muso »

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #158 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:59pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:49pm:

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:41pm:

Yep, and water vapour is all positive feedback.

Edit: When a cloud passes the face of the sun as you are standing under, you feel it cool. When the sky is overcast of a night temperatures tend to stay higher due to an insulating effect. Therefore it seems logical that water vapour can be both a negative and positive feedback.

...water vapour in the earths atmosphere contributes the most to the overall thermal retention rate of the planet. Without it there would be a lot of ice on the earths surface

- and in periods where atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been really low (150-170 ppm), water vapour concentrations have been correspondingly low, as a consequence of lower total forcing. This effect gives rise to climate sensitivity.

It is estimated that water vapour gives causes about 65% of the total Greenhouse Effect. Climatology 101.

What is the relative humidity if the mean temperature is -18 degrees C?

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #159 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:06pm

muso wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:59pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:49pm:

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 5:41pm:

Yep, and water vapour is all positive feedback.

Edit: When a cloud passes the face of the sun as you are standing under, you feel it cool. When the sky is overcast of a night temperatures tend to stay higher due to an insulating effect. Therefore it seems logical that water vapour can be both a negative and positive feedback.

...water vapour in the earths atmosphere contributes the most to the overall thermal retention rate of the planet. Without it there would be a lot of ice on the earths surface

- and in periods where atmospheric CO2 concentrations have been really low (150-170 ppm), water vapour concentrations have been correspondingly low, as a consequence of lower total forcing. This effect gives rise to climate sensitivity.

It is estimated that water vapour gives causes about 65% of the total Greenhouse Effect. Climatology 101.

What is the relative humidity if the mean temperature is -18 degrees C?

remember, muso, predicting short term weather is NOT a stochastic process.

In the words of master Light and Bobby

you are forgiven,

namaste

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #160 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:31pm

I'm on your side Chimpy. Short term weather (the behaviour of thunderstorms etc) is largely stochastically modelled by necessity, but I know where you are coming from. Google thunderstorm and stochastic modelling.

Actually the new generation climate models can also be used for weather modelling, but that wasn't always the case.

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« Last Edit: Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:40pm by muso »

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #161 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:47pm

muso wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:31pm:

I'm on your side Chimpy. Short term weather (the behaviour of thunderstorms etc) is largely stochastically modelled by necessity, but I know where you are coming from. Google thunderstorm and stochastic modelling.

Actually the new generation climate models can also be used for weather modelling, but that wasn't always the case.

that's only for individual events and their short term behaviour, which are extremely difficult to predict - mainly because of their sensitivity to initial conditions.

Using statistically based modelling is a fairly good approach in these situation (because there are usually no alternatives)

Some years back the most powerful computers could run weather models, but suffered from processor speed. The computers could spew out say a 3 day weather forecast, but it took the computer 2 weeks of processing times to achieve this - bit late by then. But these simulations were still carried out so that the accuracy of the models could be determined.

Large frame computers these days are very much faster (parallel processors etc). In fact some of the largest and fastest computers in the world are used to run weather and climate models. (including in Australia)

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18027 Gender:	Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs Reply #162 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:56pm I was reading through some items on WUWT this morning; (I have subjected myself to self-flagellation). A Warmist posted there that CO2 was both a warming agent and a cooling agent, so Greenhouse Gases must be capable of swinging both ways. I wonder whether the models take it into account?
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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs Reply #163 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 7:39pm No. Climatologists forget all about basic atmospheric physics, and they need retired radio announcers like Anthony Watts to remind them of such basic facts. (sarc off) So what specifically did this "warmist" say?
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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #164 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 7:49pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:47pm:

that's only for individual events and their short term behaviour, which are extremely difficult to predict - mainly because of their sensitivity to initial conditions.

Using statistically based modelling is a fairly good approach in these situation (because there are usually no alternatives)

Some years back the most powerful computers could run weather models, but suffered from processor speed. The computers could spew out say a 3 day weather forecast, but it took the computer 2 weeks of processing times to achieve this - bit late by then. But these simulations were still carried out so that the accuracy of the models could be determined.

Large frame computers these days are very much faster (parallel processors etc). In fact some of the largest and fastest computers in the world are used to run weather and climate models. (including in Australia)

Exactly.

It reminds me of the last flooding event in Brisbane, and how everybody was an armchair expert after the event. The prediction of the storm cells was difficult enough. let alone the fact that they didn't have sufficiently accurate models for the water flows. Regardless of that, they had no scruples about crucifying the engineers who were only doing the best they could without the benefit of 20:20 hindsight.

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« Last Edit: Nov 16^th, 2013 at 7:54pm by muso »

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