Australian Politics Forum - Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs

lee

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #165 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm

Isn't it nice how everyone has an open mind.

Never mind that most of the articles are pro-AGW. (That does not stop them from being criticised).

Just hang him he is a non-believer. As he says he is merely an Aggregator of articles.

I was wrong earlier the comment wasn't about CO2, it was about GHG's generally.

'Well, as I said, ozone depletion was the main factor. But GHG’s were expected to have a cooling effect too. '

Of course you can always look and judge for yourself rather than relying on SKS to form your opinions.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #166 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:52pm

muso wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 7:49pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:47pm:

that's only for individual events and their short term behaviour, which are extremely difficult to predict - mainly because of their sensitivity to initial conditions.

Using statistically based modelling is a fairly good approach in these situation (because there are usually no alternatives)

Some years back the most powerful computers could run weather models, but suffered from processor speed. The computers could spew out say a 3 day weather forecast, but it took the computer 2 weeks of processing times to achieve this - bit late by then. But these simulations were still carried out so that the accuracy of the models could be determined.

Large frame computers these days are very much faster (parallel processors etc). In fact some of the largest and fastest computers in the world are used to run weather and climate models. (including in Australia)

Exactly.

It reminds me of the last flooding event in Brisbane, and how everybody was an armchair expert after the event. The prediction of the storm cells was difficult enough. let alone the fact that they didn't have sufficiently accurate models for the water flows. Regardless of that, they had no scruples about crucifying the engineers who were only doing the best they could without the benefit of 20:20 hindsight.

I am surprised they didn't consult the Vatican - after all the insurance companies were referring to the floods as ACTS OF GOD.

Surely the Pope knew, or some Rabbi had inside trading information - they could of tipped off a few before they drowned or lost their homes

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muso

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #167 - Nov 16^th, 2013 at 9:19pm

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Isn't it nice how everyone has an open mind.

Never mind that most of the articles are pro-AGW. (That does not stop them from being criticised).

Just hang him he is a non-believer. As he says he is merely an Aggregator of articles.

I was wrong earlier the comment wasn't about CO2, it was about GHG's generally.

'Well, as I said, ozone depletion was the main factor. But GHG’s were expected to have a cooling effect too. '

Of course you can always look and judge for yourself rather than relying on SKS to form your opinions.

I try to avoid the blogs, including Skeptical Science. People insist on cutting and pasting articles here. After a while, it's just too time consuming to debunk very superficial articles. There is so much nonsense out there.

Greenhouse gases have a net warming effect. Do you understand the mechanism? I'm happy to explain it.

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« Last Edit: Nov 16^th, 2013 at 9:26pm by muso »

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muso

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #168 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 7:11am

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Isn't it nice how everyone has an open mind.

Never mind that most of the articles are pro-AGW. (That does not stop them from being criticised).

There is no problem with having an open mind. All I ask is that you learn the basics first so that you can develop a functional BS meter. Because right now, to be quite frank, you have an Honours NFI in Climatology and you will happily consume anything that passes your way. Soren has an NFI (First class honours) in Climatology. Maybe you could be study buddies.

Well there is a slight chance that you could pick up the basics of atmospheric science by reading WUWT. Hmmmm.

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« Last Edit: Nov 17^th, 2013 at 7:16am by muso »

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #169 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:16am

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 6:56pm:

I was reading through some items on WUWT this morning; (I have subjected myself to self-flagellation). A Warmist posted there that CO2 was both a warming agent and a cooling agent, so Greenhouse Gases must be capable of swinging both ways.

I wonder whether the models take it into account?

Why would you assume otherwise?

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #170 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:49am

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Isn't it nice how everyone has an open mind.

Look to the sources you favour. Where does your bias lie?

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

Never mind that most of the articles are pro-AGW. ...

Could the 95%+ confidence of the vast majority of the best qualified have something to do with the content of most articles?

lee wrote on Nov 16^th, 2013 at 8:27pm:

...
Of course you can always look and judge for yourself ...

Which I did for decades before acknowledging that I was fooling nobody but myself.

Amateurs playing around with such complex science will rarely do more than confirm what they already believe.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #171 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:57am

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:49am:

Amateurs playing around with such complex science will rarely do more than confirm what they already believe.

.....plenty of amateur scientists throughout history who have done rather well don't you think?

Likewise plenty of so called PROFESSIONALLY qualified scientists who have shamed their links to science

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #172 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:30pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:57am:

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:49am:

Amateurs playing around with such complex science will rarely do more than confirm what they already believe.

.....plenty of amateur scientists throughout history who have done rather well ...

You're confusing amateur scientist with the ignorant amateurs who call themselves sceptics and pretend to understand the science. I used to be one of those amateurs, until I realised that I lacked the intellectual tools to avoid pitfalls such as confirmation bias.

To be a true amateur scientist takes knowledge, skill and dedication. The amateurs to whom I referred are dedicated solely to supporting their world views.

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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #173 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:56pm

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:30pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:57am:

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 10:49am:

Amateurs playing around with such complex science will rarely do more than confirm what they already believe.

.....plenty of amateur scientists throughout history who have done rather well ...

You're confusing amateur scientist with the ignorant amateurs who call themselves sceptics and pretend to understand the science. I used to be one of those amateurs, until I realised that I lacked the intellectual tools to avoid pitfalls such as confirmation bias.

To be a true amateur scientist takes knowledge, skill and dedication. The amateurs to whom I referred are dedicated solely to supporting their world views.

even amateur scientists understand a basic P-T phase diagram for water

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# Gold Member Offline A fool is certain: an ignorant fool, absolutely so Posts: 2603	Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs Reply #174 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:02pm Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:56pm: ... even amateur scientists ... Again, you're confusing amateur scientists with amateurs who aren't scientists.
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Chimp_Logic

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #175 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:14pm

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:02pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:56pm:

...
even amateur scientists ...

Again, you're confusing amateur scientists with amateurs who aren't scientists.

at least they understand why frozen water cannot undergo sublimation at atmospheric pressures.

And they don't try to hide from their mistakes by deflections and garbage

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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #176 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:28pm

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:14pm:

# wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:02pm:

Chimp_Logic wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 12:56pm:

...
even amateur scientists ...

Again, you're confusing amateur scientists with amateurs who aren't scientists.

at least they understand why frozen water cannot undergo sublimation at atmospheric pressures.
...

Do you have a freezer?

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lee Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 18027 Gender:	Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs Reply #177 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:33pm What don't you understand about aggregator? From some of the posts here, some have their opinions pre-formed by others, without going to the source of their angst.
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Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs
Reply #178 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 3:14pm

lee wrote on Nov 17^th, 2013 at 1:33pm:

What don't you understand about aggregator?

From some of the posts here, some have their opinions pre-formed by others, without going to the source of their angst.

How much do you think you understand?
How much do you actually understand?
How do your biases affect what you think you understand?
How do your biases affect your choice of sources?
How does your choice of sources affect your understanding?

As a true sceptic, I choose my sources on their quality. In common with most of those who call themselves sceptics on this board, you appear to choose on the basis of what the source says.

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muso Gold Member Offline Posts: 13151 Gladstone, Queensland Gender:	Re: Arctic summer temperatures warmest for 120,000 yrs Reply #179 - Nov 17^th, 2013 at 3:22pm I regard myself as a sceptic. That's why I am so quick to dismiss just about anything that Christopher Monckton utters (except maybe, "time for tea"). I have a fully functioning BS meter and I can spot nonsense a mile away.
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