Forum

 
  Back to OzPolitic.com   Welcome, Guest. Please Login or Register
  Forum Home Album HelpSearch Recent Rules LoginRegister  
 

Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8
Send Topic Print
If all the ice melted (Read 7137 times)
#
Gold Member
*****
Offline


A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #30 - Nov 14th, 2013 at 8:13pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 14th, 2013 at 7:11pm:
Yep, that's just the start point. If the start point is useless so is the "data".

edit: the satellites need a base figure they are not inherently omniscient.

You sound like you think you know. I was like that once.

Are you actually qualified or do you just heed sources that say what you want to believe? Confirmation bias is difficult to avoid.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #31 - Nov 15th, 2013 at 12:42am
 
I read scholarly articles on climate change, the independence or otherwise of climate models as well as some blog sites, because they make a handy collection point for articles. Then try to analyse them, looking for cases where the conclusion seems to be not necessarily in accordance with the evidence provided. eg if something happens rarely, is happening now therefore it must be climate change.

Then sift through the detritus and see what seems likely.

Much better than relying on MSM.

Back to top
« Last Edit: Nov 15th, 2013 at 12:49am by lee »  
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #32 - Nov 15th, 2013 at 11:18am
 
Can you spot the missing GHG from this pie chart?

http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/global.html

note the (dot),
Back to top
« Last Edit: Nov 15th, 2013 at 3:54pm by muso »  
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #33 - Nov 15th, 2013 at 3:53pm
 
I didn't go there, but I presume you mean water? Water is a follower - a feedback.
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #34 - Nov 15th, 2013 at 10:11pm
 
Water vapour is in fact the largest Greenhouse Gas. It rates a mention at the EPA as well as lowly wiki.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
Innocent bystander
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 4220
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #35 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 8:11am
 
lee wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 10:11pm:
Water vapour is in fact the largest Greenhouse Gas. It rates a mention at the EPA as well as lowly wiki.




Next they'll try and reduce water vapour, maybe ban kettles or something.  Grin
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #36 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 11:58am
 
muso wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 3:53pm:
I didn't go there, but I presume you mean water? Water is a follower - a feedback.



I don't get what you mean.

Do you mean water vapour is a lagging indicator of AGW, as is CO2?

BTW, I haven't found a study yet that has determined a tipping point at which CO2 flip-flops between lagging/leading indication.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
#
Gold Member
*****
Offline


A fool is certain: an
ignorant fool, absolutely
so

Posts: 2603
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #37 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 3:12pm
 
# wrote on Nov 14th, 2013 at 8:13pm:
Are you actually qualified or do you just heed sources that say what you want to believe? ...
lee wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 12:42am:
I read scholarly articles on climate change, the independence or otherwise of climate models as well as some blog sites, because they make a handy collection point for articles. Then try to analyse them, looking for cases where the conclusion seems to be not necessarily in accordance with the evidence provided.
I'll take that as a no and a yes, in that order.

# wrote on Nov 14th, 2013 at 8:13pm:
... Confirmation bias is difficult to avoid.
lee wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 12:42am:
...
Then sift through the detritus and see what seems likely.
Which, no doubt, reliably confirms what you already believe.

lee wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 12:42am:
Much better than relying on MSM.
You could try relying on the best qualified.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #38 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 3:31pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 16th, 2013 at 11:58am:
muso wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 3:53pm:
I didn't go there, but I presume you mean water? Water is a follower - a feedback.



I don't get what you mean.

Do you mean water vapour is a lagging indicator of AGW, as is CO2?

BTW, I haven't found a study yet that has determined a tipping point at which CO2 flip-flops between lagging/leading indication.


That's because you read the wrong kind of blog. It's not a question of lagging or leading. It's an equilibrium.

If the temperature drops, water vapour drops out of the atmosphere. Really cold air is very dry. In other words, as the atmosphere heats up due to one forcing or another, more water vapour evaporates and ends up in the atmosphere.  It's a feedback, whereas carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulphur hexafluoride are all greenhouse gases that give rise to radiative forcing.

If you cool down the atmosphere, those gases stay in the atmosphere, whereas water vapour drops out.

The two major positive forcings are solar forcings and greenhouse gas forcings.

Do you understand how greenhouse gases work?

If you don't understand forcings and feedbacks , might I suggest that your attempts at self education in the subject are arse about. You should start with the basics.

These blogs that you read are engineered to confuse the gullible, the downright silly and the senile, but they often catch out others.  I don't blame them. Real science makes their head hurt. Simple seductive lies are much easier on the grey matter.
Back to top
« Last Edit: Nov 16th, 2013 at 3:39pm by muso »  

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #39 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 3:43pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 15th, 2013 at 10:11pm:
Water vapour is in fact the largest Greenhouse Gas. It rates a mention at the EPA as well as lowly wiki.


In an empirical sense, what percentage of the greenhouse effect is due to water and what proportion is due to carbon dioxide?
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #40 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 6:39pm
 
'Water vapor is one of the most important elements of the climate system. A greenhouse gas, like carbon dioxide, it represents around 80 percent of total greenhouse gas mass in the atmosphere and 90 percent of greenhouse gas volume.

Water vapor and clouds account for 66 to 85 percent of the greenhouse effect, compared to a range of 9 to 26 percent for CO2. So why all the attention on carbon dioxide and its ilk? Is water vapor the real culprit causing global warming?


Source: yaleclimatemediaforum

But that was just a quick google.

edit:
'If one pursues the question of how much of the greenhouse effect is due to each of the various greenhouse gases one finds a perplexing variety of answers in the literature. One source says that 95 percent of the greenhouse effect is due to water vapor, another 98 percent. These figures may be referring to the proportion, by weight or volume, of water vapor among the greenhouse gases of the atmosphere. Another source says that proportion water vapor is responsible for is between 36 and 70 percent. Water droplets in clouds account for another 10 to 15 percent so water as liquid or vapor accounts for between 46 and 85 percent of the greenhouse effect. The same source attributes 9 to 26 percent of the greenhouse effect to carbon dioxide (CO2). '

sjsu.edu/ faculty
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
muso
Gold Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 13151
Gladstone, Queensland
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #41 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 6:46pm
 
Well as I said earlier, water vapour concentration is a consequence of temperature. Increase the temperature due to increased CO2 or increased solar forcing and more water vapour evaporates, thereby multiplying the effect. On a time scale over about 100 years, it's around 65%.
Back to top
 

...
1523 people like this. The remaining 7,134,765,234 do not 
 
IP Logged
 
lee
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Australian Politics

Posts: 18020
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #42 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 9:23pm
 
And seeing as we apparently have more ice and an hiatus, CO2 can't be having such a great extent. All this at a time of increasing CO2. So CO2 either doesn't have as much effect as postulated, or there is a counterbalancing effect that the climate scientists have figured out yet.

I am not sure that man has attained omniscience.
Back to top
 
 
IP Logged
 
UnSubRocky
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Crocodile Hunter: Origins

Posts: 25022
Rockhampton
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #43 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 9:49pm
 
Doctor Jolly wrote on Nov 14th, 2013 at 8:13am:
Nice graph muso.


Denialists will interpret that as "downward" trend over the last year, therefore disproving all the accumlated science on climate change.

Grin


According to the graph, the sea levels have risen 90mm in the last 30 years of my life. I call bullshit! That would be noticeable to anyone 50 years old living near the coastline.
Back to top
 

At this stage...
WWW  
IP Logged
 
UnSubRocky
Gold Member
*****
Offline


Crocodile Hunter: Origins

Posts: 25022
Rockhampton
Gender: male
Re: If all the ice melted
Reply #44 - Nov 16th, 2013 at 9:59pm
 
More water vapor, more water to fall on the continent of Antarctica and freezes. Lower sea levels. More water vapor, travelling further. Makes inland lakes. Lower sea levels.
Back to top
 

At this stage...
WWW  
IP Logged
 
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 ... 8
Send Topic Print