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Climate change: a voice from the front line (Read 4517 times)
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Climate change: a voice from the front line
Nov 22nd, 2013 at 7:05pm
 
Climate change and firefighting: a voice from the front line

November 18, 2013

Jim Casey
...
Climate change: Our industrial muscle won't cut it. Photo: Wolter Peeters


As a firefighter, I can tell you things are not the way they used to be.

The natural environment is changing. In 2009, we witnessed the devastating Black Saturday fires in Victoria. In 2010, incredible and unexpected flooding in Queensland. Rainfall is up in parts of the country, down in others.

Temperatures are rising, wind patterns changing, storm and tempest activity becoming unpredictable - and all of this leads to more frequent and more extreme natural disasters.

The recent Blue Mountains fires are a case in point: there have always been fires in that part of NSW, but in October?
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It's time we lifted the debate above political point scoring on climate change.

Be it bushfire, flood or storm, you will find firefighters doing what we do best. We're proud of our job. But it is a dangerous profession, and we want to make sure we can minimise the risks we face.

The vast majority of scientists and a majority of the general population agree the planet is getting warmer, as a direct result of how we interact with the natural world.

It is the impact this has on the weather that is of particular concern to firefighters, and other first responders. We are now seeing more extreme weather events. We're seeing an unstable, unpredictable climate.

In 2010, the NSW Department of the Environment released a paper titled NSW Climate Impact Profile, which says between now and 2050 we can expect: "Higher temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns will more likely than not lead to increased fire frequency. Very high to extreme fire danger days are projected to increase and the conditions conducive to large and intense fires (such as prolonged drought, low humidity, number of days with high temperature and high wind speeds) may increase."

Which is where we come in. Professional firefighters are among the most heavily unionised industries in the country. There's a reason for that. The nature of our job is dangerous. The personal protective equipment we have, the breathing apparatus, safe and effective minimum crew levels - all of these basic workplace safety matters were won by firefighters demanding it from the employer.

But on the issue of climate change, our industrial muscle won't cut it. This isn't a dispute over safe working conditions, a reasonable wage, or dignity in the workplace. This is about the way our society is organised. It is about how we all live, and it is about the conditions under which firefighters work.

We need action on climate change. Firefighters will continue to go to work, as we have always done, helping people in emergencies. But we're treating the symptoms of the problem, not the disease itself. It will require a mass movement, prepared to be bold and imaginative, to do that.

Jim Casey from the Fire Brigade Employees Union spoke at the National Day of Climate Action in Prince Alfred Park on Sunday.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #1 - Nov 23rd, 2013 at 12:30pm
 
I read this article with interest.

Didn't I recently read that we wave had, in the past, catastrophic fires in September?

As a professional firefighter what is his expertise in wildfire events compared to town fire events?

Not knowing the setup over east, I just thought I would ask.

I am a member of a volunteer bush brigade.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #2 - Nov 23rd, 2013 at 1:27pm
 
An obvious fire fighter in the agw cult. The guys an absolute idiot if he thinks all fires should be the same.
Firefighter pfft, advocate yes.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #3 - Nov 23rd, 2013 at 7:59pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 23rd, 2013 at 12:30pm:
...
Didn't I recently read that we wave had, in the past, catastrophic fires in September?
...
Is it a case of possibility or probability? Doesn't the science say something like: increasing temperatures increases the probability of extreme weather events, such as those that contribute to bush fires?
progressiveslol wrote on Nov 23rd, 2013 at 1:27pm:
An obvious fire fighter in the agw cult. ...
So AGW, which the majority of the best qualified and every scientific body say is probable, is a cult, but denial, which has no such support is ... what, exactly?

Your beliefs rely on conspiracy of improbable proportions or similarly improbable ineptitude.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #4 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 5:49am
 
Off-Topic replies have been moved to this Topic.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #5 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 4:13pm
 
#, AR5 says-

“confidence is LOW for global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness…”

“confidence remains LOW for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone** activity  …”

“confidence in large scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is LOW… “

“confidence is LOW for trends in small-scale severe weather events such as hail or thunderstorms.”

So much for extreme weather events. The prognostications keep changing.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #6 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 4:29pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 26th, 2013 at 4:13pm:
#, AR5 says-

“confidence is LOW for global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness…”

“confidence remains LOW for long-term (centennial) changes in tropical cyclone** activity  …”

“confidence in large scale trends in storminess or storminess proxies over the last century is LOW… “

“confidence is LOW for trends in small-scale severe weather events such as hail or thunderstorms.”

So much for extreme weather events. The prognostications keep changing.


Keep going. So far, you just covered the low confidence predictions. You're not cherry picking, are you?

Quote:
The prognostications keep changing.


You need to back that assertion up with evidence. What did the AR4 Report say about trends in small-scale severe weather events such as hail or thunderstorms, for example.

You do know why confidence is low for these predictions?
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #7 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 4:45pm
 
OK so AR5 is not an updated report from the IPCC?

So we have low confidence in extreme weather events but high confidence that the low confidence will yield greater bush fires. And that - irrespective of allowing fuel loads to increase to unsafe levels?
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #8 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 5:21pm
 
lee wrote on Nov 26th, 2013 at 4:45pm:
OK so AR5 is not an updated report from the IPCC?

So we have low confidence in extreme weather events but high confidence that the low confidence will yield greater bush fires. And that - irrespective of allowing fuel loads to increase to unsafe levels?


Your post doesn't make sense. How does that relate to the fact that you are cherry picking?
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #9 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 6:34pm
 
From AR4

Drought - increase in total area affected - likely
Cyclones - longer lifetimes and greater intensity, no trend in frequency - likely more confidence in frequency and intensity
Extreme storms - increase frequency/intensity - likely
Small scale weather events - no assessment.

Source- .ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-8-5.html

3 out of 4 is that a pass?
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #10 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 7:24pm
 
They are not quite the same parameters. I think you'll find that the time scales are different in some cases. The conclusions about drought for example are not conflicting.

In some cases, the reasons may be due to lack of data as opposed to anything else. For example, a launch failure  resulting in no in-depth study. In that case, new data would be ready the next time around.

Anyway, it's pointless for me to refute every single point you bring up.   

From AR5 Technical summary:

Quote:
Confidence in the validity of a finding, based on the type, amount, quality, and consistency of evidence (e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) and the degree of agreement. Confidence is expressed qualitatively.



Quote:
Earth has been in radiative imbalance, with more energy from the sun entering than exiting the top of the
atmosphere, since at least circa 1970. It is virtually certain that Earth has gained substantial energy from
1971–2010. The estimated increase in energy inventory between 1971 and 2010 is 274 [196 to 351] x 1021
J), with a heating rate of 213 x 1012 W from a linear fit to the annual values over that time period
(see also
TFE.4).

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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #11 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 7:33pm
 
Quote:
It is likely that circulation features have moved poleward since the 1970s, involving a widening of thetropical belt, a poleward shift of storm tracks and jet streams, and a contraction of the northern polar vortex.

Evidence is more robust for the Northern Hemisphere. It is likely that the Southern Annular Mode hasbecome more positive since the 1950s. The increase in the strength of the observed summer Southern Annular Mode since 1950 has been anomalous, with medium confidence, in the context of the past 400 years.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #12 - Nov 26th, 2013 at 7:37pm
 
Quote:
Based on concentration changes, the RF of all WMGHG in 2011 is 2.83 [2.54 to 3.12] W m–2 (very high confidence). This is an increase since AR4 of 0.20 [0.18 to 0.22] W m–2, with nearly all of the increase due to the increase in the abundance of CO2 since 2005. The industrial era RF for CO2 alone is 1.82 [1.63 to 2.01] W m–2. Over the last 15 years, CO2 has been the dominant contributor to the increase in RF from the WMGHGs, with RF of CO2 having an average growth rate slightly less than 0.3 W m–2 per decade. The uncertainty in the WMGHG RF
is due in part to its radiative properties but mostly to the full accounting of....
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #13 - Nov 27th, 2013 at 11:25am
 
'(e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) '

And we know the models are really outperforming the actual data.

So if we take our understanding from the expert judgement of the outperforming climate models we get ... ?  Especially so when we can make Climate Sensitivity whatever we like.
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Re: Climate change: a voice from the front line
Reply #14 - Nov 28th, 2013 at 9:33am
 
lee wrote on Nov 27th, 2013 at 11:25am:
'(e.g., mechanistic understanding, theory, data, models, expert judgment) '

And we know the models are really outperforming the actual data.

So if we take our understanding from the expert judgement of the outperforming climate models we get ... ?  Especially so when we can make Climate Sensitivity whatever we like.


Again, you're going off at a tangent speaking about models, when you were originally talking about degree of confidence based on observation.  How can you equate observation with models? I guess it comes with your NFI (First Class Hons.) in Climatology.


The part about making the climate sensitivity what we want is in cloud cuckoo land. "Climate sensitivity" is not an input to any model I know of.

Where did you pick up that particular gem? Anthony Watts, no doubt.
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