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Labor ahead 52/48 tpp (Read 11282 times)
skippy.
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #105 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:38pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 11:07am:
Bam wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 9:28am:
On opinion polls in general:

I have studied the results of opinion polls over the past 20 years. For a surprisingly large amount of time, the Government of the day has trailed. If there's one constant in Australian politics, Australians are usually unhappy with the government.

If opinion polls six months from an election were any guide, Keating would have lost in 1993 and Howard would have lost in 1998 and 2001.

The only government that enjoyed a good lead six months from an election was Rudd in 2010.

I find opinion polls to be a rather salty snack.


Yes but what about the first few months after an election? My impression is that pretty much any government straight after an election will get some sort of honeymoon period sometime during the first few months of the new term. Even Gillard got it after the 2010 election. That is whats notable here - Abbott's getting no honeymoon. May or may not be significant though.

Yep. Unprecedented in a poll just after an election like this. Im Not surprised, the voters never wanted an Abbott government, they just wanted to belt Labor. Unless Abbott is very careful he is looking like a one termer, the fact he hides from the media and the media are whining about it will not help either. I think the voters can see Abbott has conned them, the economy will be worse after three years of his government to what it was when he came to power, the boats will not have not stopped and on the world stage he is totally inept. Add all this up and this could end in tears a lot quicker than anyone ever thought.
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Bam
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #106 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:39pm
 
polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 11:07am:
Bam wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 9:28am:
On opinion polls in general:

I have studied the results of opinion polls over the past 20 years. For a surprisingly large amount of time, the Government of the day has trailed. If there's one constant in Australian politics, Australians are usually unhappy with the government.

If opinion polls six months from an election were any guide, Keating would have lost in 1993 and Howard would have lost in 1998 and 2001.

The only government that enjoyed a good lead six months from an election was Rudd in 2010.

I find opinion polls to be a rather salty snack.


Yes but what about the first few months after an election? My impression is that pretty much any government straight after an election will get some sort of honeymoon period sometime during the first few months of the new term.

This does happen, although I cannot cite specific examples from memory.

Quote:
Even Gillard got it after the 2010 election. That is whats notable here - Abbott's getting no honeymoon. May or may not be significant though.

It's also possible that Abbott's honeymoon period did occur, but it was missed because the first Nielsen poll occurred after it ended. A poll after the NSW bushfires would have been interesting.

Morgan has conducted five polls already, with the polling numbers bouncing around 50-50. The most recent Morgan poll had ALP 49%, Coalition 51%. There was no sign of a honeymoon period here.

Another possibility is that this poll is an outlier, but the chances of this being a rogue poll with the actual figures favouring the Coalition is only about 5%.

My theory is that the indecisive handling of the Indonesian spying revelations has influenced this poll result. Time will tell if this has a long-term effect or if it is temporary.
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longweekend58
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #107 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:59pm
 
ImSpartacus2 wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 7:46am:
I have never seen a shorter honeymoon period in the time I have been watching politics.  Little wonder. In just over 2 months they've bungled everything they've touched. The way Abbott's screwing up from issue to issue I reckon we'll start hearing "leadership challenge" noises very soon now.  Look at the way Armpit and cods spat the dummy this morning.  And Matty the other day with his stupid rant (You want the government to fail; you do I know you do -  remember that outburst).  They know they backed a loser and cant stand that we told them so.  And look at  Long Wick End "I dont believe it, I dont believe, It cant be true".   Hehehehe, what a hoot. Oh and Armpit.  You tell that woman basher not to show his face on this forum or he'll be accounting to me.

Hey great news about the greens.  Go GREENS!!!!  DD 
DD
 
DD


you are assuming that this poll is accurate and there are many reasons to believe that it is not. we need other polls and successive polls to see if this is an outlier or  complete dud.  Newspoll had the coalition extremely popular and labor very unpopular only a couple weeks ago.  to believe that there has been such a massive turnaround in such a new govt seems more than a little unlikely.

about 2 years ago Gillard received a 5% boost in the polls in one period and I claimed then that it was probably an outlier since it was over anuary and nothing at all had happened.  most of your imbeciles mocked me and the next poll had that 5% 'gain' completely erased

more polls before we see anything genuine.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #108 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:01pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:30pm:
Verge wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:22pm:
A poll four years from an election.  This is useful.



Three years, actually.

Moreover, there will be a federal senate election in WA within the next four months.






there has been no decision on that yet.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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longweekend58
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #109 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:03pm
 
Bam wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:39pm:
polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 11:07am:
Bam wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 9:28am:
On opinion polls in general:

I have studied the results of opinion polls over the past 20 years. For a surprisingly large amount of time, the Government of the day has trailed. If there's one constant in Australian politics, Australians are usually unhappy with the government.

If opinion polls six months from an election were any guide, Keating would have lost in 1993 and Howard would have lost in 1998 and 2001.

The only government that enjoyed a good lead six months from an election was Rudd in 2010.

I find opinion polls to be a rather salty snack.


Yes but what about the first few months after an election? My impression is that pretty much any government straight after an election will get some sort of honeymoon period sometime during the first few months of the new term.

This does happen, although I cannot cite specific examples from memory.

Quote:
Even Gillard got it after the 2010 election. That is whats notable here - Abbott's getting no honeymoon. May or may not be significant though.

It's also possible that Abbott's honeymoon period did occur, but it was missed because the first Nielsen poll occurred after it ended. A poll after the NSW bushfires would have been interesting.

Morgan has conducted five polls already, with the polling numbers bouncing around 50-50. The most recent Morgan poll had ALP 49%, Coalition 51%. There was no sign of a honeymoon period here.

Another possibility is that this poll is an outlier, but the chances of this being a rogue poll with the actual figures favouring the Coalition is only about 5%.

My theory is that the indecisive handling of the Indonesian spying revelations has influenced this poll result. Time will tell if this has a long-term effect or if it is temporary.


Morgan polls have a pretty unreliable record.  Sometimes they can be dealy accurate and other times out by a mile.  They are the poll that predicted Keating would win in 1996 before he was flogged by the second biggest margin ever.  They wee very close in the recent federal election however they were claiming a labor victory until midway thru the election campaign so their 'accuracy' seems to be rather unpredictable.
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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."
 
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greggerypeccary
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #110 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:05pm
 
longweekend58 wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:01pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:30pm:
Verge wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 2:22pm:
A poll four years from an election.  This is useful.



Three years, actually.

Moreover, there will be a federal senate election in WA within the next four months.






there has been no decision on that yet.



On the senate?  No.

However, I'll put a week's pay on the election being held within the next four months.


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Armchair_Politician
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #111 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:21pm
 
Stratos wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:51am:
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:44am:
they are classed as an illegal immigrant


No, they are classed as an "irregular maritime arrival"
Under labor, yes. Morrison instructed the Immigration Dept to call them what they are - illegal immigrants.


Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:44am:
No one ever said the act of seeking asylum is illegal,


Which is why it is misleading to use the term illegal in any context surrounding them
Hardly! They are classed as illegals until given asylum... or deported if their application is rejected. Simple - for most people to understand.


Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:44am:
just the manner in which they attempt to enter this country.


Which they cannot be punished for due to the treaty Australia has signed
And they are not punished. I don't know of any death camps or hard labor (besides what we lived through for the past 6 years). If granted asylum, they're released, if not, they're deported. We can't have 50,000 people wandering the streets when we know little or nothing about them (thanks to their deliberate destruction of their passports and other forms of ID), hence the detention centres.



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Armchair_Politician
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #112 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:27pm
 
greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 7:58am:
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:06am:
Stratos wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:03am:
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 5:55am:
I don't mind that he was accused. I do mind the fact that he was not convicted, yet you continue to call him a woman basher despite this not being what the court decided. Continue with the lie and you will be reported each time.


Oh cool you can report people for lying?  Does that mean I can get people who call asylum seekers illegals banned?


No, the government calls them illegal immigrants. Check if you don't believe me.



I checked.

You lied.

Reported.

Have a nice day.




You did not check very well. Care to offer an apology to me now?


Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has instructed departmental and detention centre staff to publicly refer to asylum seekers as ‘‘illegal’’ arrivals and as ‘‘detainees’’, rather than as clients.

The directive has been criticised as a ‘‘profound’’ shift by a leading asylum seeker agency, which says the new terminology is designed to dehumanise people.

In an email to detention centre staff, obtained by Fairfax Media, a department official writes: ‘‘The department has received correspondence from the minister clarifying his expectations about the department’s use of terminology. Accordingly we as [sic] that our service providers also adhere to the below instructions.’’

These include calling all people who arrive in Australia by boat ‘‘illegal maritime arrivals’’, a marked change from the more moderate language used under the previous government.

When it came to office in 2007, Labor dropped the Howard government’s description of asylum seekers who arrived by boat as ‘‘illegal maritime arrivals’’, calling them ‘‘irregular maritime arrivals’’. It said this was done in recognition of the fact it is not illegal under Australian domestic law or international law to claim asylum. The new directive reverses this.

The email to detention centre and Serco staff also instructs them to describe asylum seekers being held in detention centres in Australia as ‘‘detainees’’ rather than as ‘‘clients’’, as they had been called under Labor.

People being held on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island are to be called ‘‘transferees’’, not  ‘‘clients’’.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-wants-boat-people...
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salad in
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #113 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:29pm
 
Stratos wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:03am:
Does that mean I can get people who call asylum seekers illegals banned?


Careful Stratos.

Quote:
Use of 'illegal' to describe arrivals and entry

The situation is less straightforward when the term "illegal" is used more broadly.

Any person arriving in Australia without a visa, including an asylum seeker, is an "unlawful non-citizen" under Australian law.

Mr Morrison can rely upon the definition of "illegal entry" in the people smuggling protocol, which Australia signed and ratified, so long as he makes it clear that he is doing so.

However, experts warn that the use of the terms "illegal" and "unlawful" in this context is potentially misleading, as they are words usually applied to criminal acts.

Professor Schloenhardt told ABC Fact Check that it is acceptable to refer to people coming to Australia without visas (including those who are not asylum seekers) as "illegal immigrants".

However, on a practical level, he says that "illegal implies that a criminal offence has been committed, which asylum seekers have not, and for that reason it is preferable to use different vocabulary".

Ellen Hansen from the Canberra office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees told ABC Fact Check that "the term 'illegal' is not one that UNHCR uses or encourages the use of in relation to refugees or asylum-seekers arriving without a visa".

Other terminology is available. Professor Schloenhardt said international organisations prefer to use the term "irregular migrant".

The verdict

Mr Morrison is correct.

Based on the definition set out in the people smuggling protocol, people who have come to Australia without a valid visa have illegally entered the country.

That is the case even though these people have not committed any crime, nor broken any Australian or international law.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-09-06/morrison-correct-illegal-entry-people/4935...

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #114 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:30pm
 
skippy. wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 1:51pm:
Funny armchair didn't run off to the mods when he was saying Gillard was guilty of illegal conduct which was unproven.
Running to the mods about other posters saying bad bad words about tony wony the phony pony they must have pissed them self laughing as hard as we all did. As for unsubstantiated claims, you best ask Andrei how his assertions Bob Carr is gay is going. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
At least we know the sooky boy now. Grin Grin Cheesy Grin


Big difference between Gillard and some dodgy financial transactions and Abbott and the unproven allegations saying he punched a wall near a woman that did not stand up in court and which no person is willing to sign a stat dec to back up.
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #115 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:31pm
 
The poll should be no surprise. This government is a disaster.
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skippy.
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #116 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:31pm
 
Just because a xenophobic ignoramus  like Morrison says they are illegal means nothing! only the dumbfvcks believe him.
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #117 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:32pm
 
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:27pm:
greggerypeccary wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 7:58am:
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:06am:
Stratos wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 6:03am:
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 5:55am:
I don't mind that he was accused. I do mind the fact that he was not convicted, yet you continue to call him a woman basher despite this not being what the court decided. Continue with the lie and you will be reported each time.


Oh cool you can report people for lying?  Does that mean I can get people who call asylum seekers illegals banned?


No, the government calls them illegal immigrants. Check if you don't believe me.



I checked.

You lied.

Reported.

Have a nice day.




You did not check very well. Care to offer an apology to me now?


Immigration Minister Scott Morrison has instructed departmental and detention centre staff to publicly refer to asylum seekers as ‘‘illegal’’ arrivals and as ‘‘detainees’’, rather than as clients.

The directive has been criticised as a ‘‘profound’’ shift by a leading asylum seeker agency, which says the new terminology is designed to dehumanise people
.

In an email to detention centre staff, obtained by Fairfax Media, a department official writes: ‘‘The department has received correspondence from the minister clarifying his expectations about the department’s use of terminology. Accordingly we as [sic] that our service providers also adhere to the below instructions.’’

These include calling all people who arrive in Australia by boat ‘‘illegal maritime arrivals’’, a marked change from the more moderate language used under the previous government.

When it came to office in 2007, Labor dropped the Howard government’s description of asylum seekers who arrived by boat as ‘‘illegal maritime arrivals’’, calling them ‘‘irregular maritime arrivals’’. It said this was done in recognition of the fact it is not illegal under Australian domestic law or international law to claim asylum.The new directive reverses this.

The email to detention centre and Serco staff also instructs them to describe asylum seekers being held in detention centres in Australia as ‘‘detainees’’ rather than as ‘‘clients’’, as they had been called under Labor.

People being held on Nauru and Papua New Guinea’s Manus Island are to be called ‘‘transferees’’, not  ‘‘clients’’.


http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/minister-wants-boat-people...



Your neo-fascist junta at work.

Contemptible!
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skippy.
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #118 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:35pm
 
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:30pm:
skippy. wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 1:51pm:
Funny armchair didn't run off to the mods when he was saying Gillard was guilty of illegal conduct which was unproven.
Running to the mods about other posters saying bad bad words about tony wony the phony pony they must have pissed them self laughing as hard as we all did. As for unsubstantiated claims, you best ask Andrei how his assertions Bob Carr is gay is going. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
At least we know the sooky boy now. Grin Grin Cheesy Grin


Big difference between Gillard and some dodgy financial transactions and Abbott and the unproven allegations saying he punched a wall near a woman that did not stand up in court and which no person is willing to sign a stat dec to back up.

No need for a stat dec sweet thing, another women accused him of indecent assault too, she even went to court, the Judge could not rule either way, so the judge did not find him not guilty at all. It must suck to support a man that is violent to women, have you no shame? Oh don't bother to answer that.
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Kat
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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #119 - Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:35pm
 
Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 3:30pm:
skippy. wrote on Nov 25th, 2013 at 1:51pm:
Funny armchair didn't run off to the mods when he was saying Gillard was guilty of illegal conduct which was unproven.
Running to the mods about other posters saying bad bad words about tony wony the phony pony they must have pissed them self laughing as hard as we all did. As for unsubstantiated claims, you best ask Andrei how his assertions Bob Carr is gay is going. Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin
At least we know the sooky boy now. Grin Grin Cheesy Grin


Big difference between Gillard and some dodgy financial transactions and Abbott and the unproven allegations saying he punched a wall near a woman that did not stand up in court and which no person is willing to sign a stat dec to back up.



No difference at all, they were BOTH unproven.

Your hypocrisy is showing...
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