Voter mood turns on Coalition

Date
    November 25, 2013


New poll: Labor in front.      

Just three months after the election, Labor is ahead in the latest Fairfax/Nielsen poll, with Bill Shorten's 21% personal approval rating dwarfing Tony Abbott's 1%.

   

    Tony Abbott badly shaken but Labor can't be complacent.      

Bill Shorten has made the strongest debut of any opposition leader since Kevin Rudd, propelling Labor into the lead against a government weighed down by its secretive asylum seeker response and an unconvincing commitment to action on global warming.      

The first Fairfax-Nielsen poll since the election on September 7 has charted a rapid recovery for the ALP, with the opposition shooting to a 52 to 48 per cent lead over the government, according to the preferences of respondents. This is the quickest poll lead achieved by any federal opposition after losing an election.
Prime Minister Tony Abbott and Immigration minister

It is also the first time in more than three years that Labor has led on the two-party-preferred vote.


The result will be seen as a wake-up call to the Abbott government as it struggles to maintain confidence in its tough stop-the-boats policy while refusing to reveal the most basic details on grounds of operational security.

Labor's primary vote has recovered to 37 per cent - up 4 percentage points since the election, while the Coalition's primary support has fallen by a similar 5 points to be 41 per cent.


The Greens also picked up support, rising from 9 percentage points to 11.      

The national poll of 1400 respondents was taken from Thursday to Saturday and has a margin of error of 2.6 per cent.

The drift away from the Coalition came despite voters backing its attempts to abolish the carbon tax with 57 per cent wanting Labor to get out of the way.

However, respondents also expressed an overwhelming belief in the reality of climate change with nearly nine in 10 voters - or 87 per cent - judging the 5 per cent emission reduction target for 2020 as

either about right (46 per cent) or too low (41 per cent).

Prime Minister Tony Abbott recorded his first net positive approval rating since August 2010, although only just, with a statistically unreliable rating of plus 1 per cent.

That is made up of an approval rating of 47 per cent - up 4 points since he was in opposition - and a disapproval rating of 46 per cent.

And while he leads Mr Shorten convincingly as preferred prime minister - 49 per cent to 41 per cent - the Labor leader is in far better shape on net approval with a rating of plus 21.

That is made up of a strong 51 per cent approval rating and a relatively low disapproval rating for an opposition leader of 30 per cent.

Pollster John Stirton said this was the best debut rating for an opposition leader since Kevin Rudd was first judged by voters in February 2007 with a huge net approval rating of plus 50 per cent based on a stellar 65 per cent approval and a very low disapproval rating of just 15 per cent against the flagging prime ministership of John Howard.

Mr Stirton said the opposition's 52-48 lead within three months of an election, compared with the 2½ years it took the Coalition to hit the front after the election of the Rudd government in 2007.

The poor result for the government is likely to cool the double-dissolution hawks because it suggests that a reaffirmation from voters cannot be assumed.

It may also have implications for the coming byelection in Mr Rudd's old seat of Griffith, with Queensland showing the largest Labor primary vote of all states at 42 per cent.

Mr Abbott has kept the double-dissolution option alive as Labor and the Greens prepare to vote down the carbon tax repeal bills in the Senate next month.

The Prime Minister took to YouTube on Sunday evening in a bid to ratchet up the pressure on Mr Shorten to roll over, telling voters: ''You voted to scrap the carbon tax, the House of Representatives has voted to scrap the carbon tax, and now it's up to the Senate to do the same, and I want this done by Christmas''. Equally worrying for Mr Abbott is the low standing of his signature stop-the-boats policy, already under a cloud because of the breakdown of co-operation with Indonesia.

Less than half of all voters at 42 per cent approve of the way the government is handling the introduction of its policy and 50 per cent disapprove.      

That is sure to add to the growing discontent within the Coalition about the performance of its hardline Minister for Immigration, Scott Morrison.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/voter-mood-turns-on-coalition-20131124-2y436.html#ixzz2laqT7xk3

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 5:46am:

Yes I remember you saying that for the last three years when the conga line did the same,NOT.

Thats a huge change is just a few months.  Voters remorse maybe ( I don't care, both poarties are willing to indefinitely imprison innocent children anyway)Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 5:46am:


I think the point that the Liberals have come a long way down since the election result.  Most surprising was the huge rise of support for Bill Shorten

Worst thing was that half of the people polled still support the way we treat Asylum seekers

It took Abbott 3 years to gain on Rudd in the polls - it's taken Shorten less than 3 months and Shorten is no messiah.

Voter disillusionment is rampant. Abbott's promises of reducing debt and stopping the boats was a lie. We saw how Gillard was vilified for her "lie" on the carbon tax - will the same happen to Abbott? If he ate some humble pie he might manage to wriggle out of the mess he's created, but his arrogance will get in the way of good leadership.

How many Indonesians were polled???

We don't need multiple threads on the same subject.

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:06am:


it belongs in the fantasy section.

Stratos wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 6:53am:



But not after 1 July 2014.