It is an interesting opinion poll but I take it with a grain of salt. I disagree with the SMH's analysis of the reasons for the poor result for the Coalition.

The opinion poll was taken from Thursday to Sunday. During that time, the political news was dominated by the coverage of Abbott's unsatisfactory response to the espionage scandal. This would have influenced the results, but this was not mentioned in the SMH's analysis. On this basis, if the Coalition produces a satisfactory response to this scandal that has no long-term repercussions, I expect the next Nielsen poll to produce better news for the Coalition.

It is also only one poll. We cannot draw firm conclusions based on only one opinion poll. We need to see multiple opinion polls over time before we can see if there is a trend.

Despite those points, the poll results suggest that the public are very willing to punish a badly-performing government regardless of the party that forms the government.

This poll result represents a 5.5% swing against the government. If it was translated to a uniform swing at an election, the government would lose 24 seats and the ALP would form a majority government. In addition, the Liberals may lose up to two marginal seats to the WA Nationals on ALP preferences if the ALP preference the Nationals ahead of the Liberals in these seats.

The ALP recorded their highest primary vote among voters in Queensland with a 42% primary (although with a relatively large margin of error). If that was replicated at an election, about ten Queensland seats with margins between 54% and 59% come into play. These seats are mostly categorised as "fairly safe" but would be difficult to hold if there was a 9% swing against the Government in Queensland.

flip page

____ wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:56am:

Current WA Senate: Libs 3, ALP 1, Greens 1, Sports 1.

I count this as 3 to 3+1/2 on the right.

If there's a revote (likely), the Coalition would need a primary of about 40% or more to have a good chance of holding three Senators. If they drop 5% to the ALP, the ALP will get two quotas (2.21) and the Coalition would no longer have three between them (2.74). The leftover ALP quota would be likely to elect a Greens candidate and PUP and the Liberals will fight out the last Senate spot with the Liberals having better chances unless PUP gets benefit from the minor party voteball.

The net result at the revote would be for the ALP to gain a seat from the Sports party. My expectation for the WA revote: Liberals 3, ALP 2, Greens 1.

Overall, I do not expect the conservatives to lose a seat because they poll strongly in WA. Instead, the main progressive parties are likely to improve their standing by one seat.

With a larger swing, the Liberals are likely to lose a seat to PUP in WA (assuming other parties maintain their polling) but I do not think it is likely.

True Colours wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:15am:

Looking just fine. You dont think abbott believes this obvious bs poll do you. Try as you may to change australian politics with lies, but the carbon tax will be repealed

Bam wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:13am:


Fair analysis. The other thing to take into account is that revotes are typically characterised by higher than usual voter disillusionment - which will translate into high informal and higher minor parties. Which minor parties though is the question - will it favour PUP? Greens? or some other? My greatest fear is that Palmer will be able to grab more votes purely on account of his fatter wallet.

polite_gandalf wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:24am:

The last time Australia had a Senate-only election at Federal level was in 1970. This Senate-only election was treated like a "giant by-election" as Antony Green put it.

My analysis was based on some voter sanity. We cannot really expect that in by-elections.

Considering the still-hypothetical WA Senate by-election would actually be a giant by-election, I agree that we should expect a lot of voter disillusionment and a few odd results.

This poll could be rogue, but the PM/LOTO approvals are interesting:

PM: approval: 47% disapprove 46% Uncommitted 8%  Net approval 1%
LOTO: approval 51% disapprove 30% Uncommitted 19. Net approval 21% and scope to improve.

With Rudd gone I predict that the WA revote will definitely improve and Lab+Grn gain a senate seat, Labor will retain Griffith. There was a huge abstention/informal vote (I abstained) that might cast proper ballots in the bielections next year.

Abbott never had high approval ratings and now they are positive by just 1%.

Greens probably jubilant at the 2% jump in support—within the MoE of 2.6%

I haven’t seen any commentary on the effect the NBN had on voter sentiment but the removal of 500K from the maps of areas to be rolled out by fibre had a huge impact.

More info including links to tables here.