Australian Politics Forum - Labor ahead 52/48 tpp

Karnal

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Re: Voter Mood Turns On The Coalition.
Reply #90 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 10:29am

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:14am:

Kat wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:13am:

mantra wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 6:10am:

It took Abbott 3 years to gain on Rudd in the polls - it's taken Shorten less than 3 months and Shorten is no messiah.

Voter disillusionment is rampant. Abbott's promises of reducing debt and stopping the boats was a lie. We saw how Gillard was vilified for her "lie" on the carbon tax - will the same happen to Abbott? If he ate some humble pie he might manage to wriggle out of the mess he's created, but his arrogance will get in the way of good leadership.

EVERYTHING Abbot said was a lie.

He and his neo-fascists need to go, and steps must be put in place to prevent
right-wing extremists from EVER AGAIN obtaining power.

Restriction of free speech and self-determination eh?

Exactly. Just like the blecks back in the good old days your mother spoke so fondly of.

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Bam

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #91 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 10:52am

St George of the Garden wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:54am:

This poll could be rogue

Not so much "rogue" (which I define to be outside the two standard deviations of the MoE which occurs about 5% of the time), but I believe it is heavily influenced by short term political news.

Quote:

Greens probably jubilant at the 2% jump in support—within the MoE of 2.6%

The quoted MoE is only applicable for polling figures near 50%. For lower figures around 10%, the MoE is significantly smaller.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Fit of Absent Mindeness

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #92 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 10:58am

This is interesting, however as we know - 1 poll a trend does not make.

If there are more polls that have them level or ahead and tony taking a hit - then we can say the honeymoon is over.

As it is, people may be asking about their asylum seeker policy, their performance regarding indonesia and their policy towards changing the nbn.

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Putting the n in cuts

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polite_gandalf

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #93 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 11:07am

Bam wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:28am:

On opinion polls in general:

I have studied the results of opinion polls over the past 20 years. For a surprisingly large amount of time, the Government of the day has trailed. If there's one constant in Australian politics, Australians are usually unhappy with the government.

If opinion polls six months from an election were any guide, Keating would have lost in 1993 and Howard would have lost in 1998 and 2001.

The only government that enjoyed a good lead six months from an election was Rudd in 2010.

I find opinion polls to be a rather salty snack.

Yes but what about the first few months after an election? My impression is that pretty much any government straight after an election will get some sort of honeymoon period sometime during the first few months of the new term. Even Gillard got it after the 2010 election. That is whats notable here - Abbott's getting no honeymoon. May or may not be significant though.

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St George of the Garden

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #94 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 11:12am

Bam wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 10:52am:

St George of the Garden wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:54am:

This poll could be rogue

Not so much "rogue" (which I define to be outside the two standard deviations of the MoE which occurs about 5% of the time), but I believe it is heavily influenced by short term political news.

Quote:

Greens probably jubilant at the 2% jump in support—within the MoE of 2.6%

The quoted MoE is only applicable for polling figures near 50%. For lower figures around 10%, the MoE is significantly smaller.

For the Greens and other small parties—the MoE will be bigger which is why their support in these polls jumps around a lot.

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I want Muso as GMod. Bring back Muso!

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp Reply #95 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 11:14am Tomorrow will get ER. This is 2 weeks polls averaged so its PVs stay more stable than that of the other Pollsters.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #96 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 11:20am

Bam wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:28am:

On opinion polls in general:

I have studied the results of opinion polls over the past 20 years. For a surprisingly large amount of time, the Government of the day has trailed. If there's one constant in Australian politics, Australians are usually unhappy with the government.

If opinion polls six months from an election were any guide, Keating would have lost in 1993 and Howard would have lost in 1998 and 2001.

The only government that enjoyed a good lead six months from an election was Rudd in 2010.

I find opinion polls to be a rather salty snack.

Governments have to implement policy and react to shocks from elsewhere. Oppositions just have to whisper sweet nothings into the voters’ ears. Because govts may not be able to implement all their promised policies, because they might have to adapt them a bit in negotiation with other parties etc etc they tend to lose popularity.

Abbott is not getting his way on Boats! and Carbon “tax” but is rooting the NBN he ain’t Mr Popularity. Labor, with the Rudd–Gillard wars sunk out of site with both out or leaving the Parliament, is being looked at with renewed favor.

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I want Muso as GMod. Bring back Muso!

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John Smith Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 75191 Gender:	Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp Reply #97 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 1:42pm Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
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skippy.

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #98 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 1:45pm

Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 6:54am:

Kat wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 6:46am:

Armchair_Politician wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 5:46am:

skippy. wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 5:39am:

http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/labor-storms-ahead-2013112...

I told the conga line the voters would not put up with Nazi Germany tactics from the women basher.
Abbott is a total failure, and the voters know it. Grin

Reported to moderators and you (and others) will be reported each time it is repeated. Sick of you repeating this lie of which he was not convicted by a court of law.

You Are A Dick!

Get over yourself, and get over that smacking grub you voted for.

Aww, poor kitty-kat upset her party got thrashed! As you so eloquently put it, GET OVER IT! LOLOLOLOL!!! Grin

LOL Kat is not the one acting a princess.D Grin

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« Last Edit: Nov 25^th, 2013 at 1:53pm by skippy. »

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skippy. Gold Member Offline Posts: 20882 Gender:	Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp Reply #99 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 1:47pm bogarde73 wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:58am: Hands up those who are bored with Skippy's "conga line"? If he wants to talk about dancing why doesn't he do a thread in Chat. LOL the sooks are out today.
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skippy.

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #100 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 1:51pm

Funny armchair didn't run off to the mods when he was saying Gillard was guilty of illegal conduct which was unproven.
Running to the mods about other posters saying bad bad words about tony wony the phony pony they must have pissed them self laughing as hard as we all did. As for unsubstantiated claims, you best ask Andrei how his assertions Bob Carr is gay is going. Grin

At least we know the sooky boy now. Grin

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Kat

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Socialism IS the answer.

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Re: Voter Mood Turns On The Coalition.
Reply #101 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 2:09pm

Andrei.Hicks wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:14am:

Kat wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 7:13am:

mantra wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 6:10am:

It took Abbott 3 years to gain on Rudd in the polls - it's taken Shorten less than 3 months and Shorten is no messiah.

Voter disillusionment is rampant. Abbott's promises of reducing debt and stopping the boats was a lie. We saw how Gillard was vilified for her "lie" on the carbon tax - will the same happen to Abbott? If he ate some humble pie he might manage to wriggle out of the mess he's created, but his arrogance will get in the way of good leadership.

EVERYTHING Abbot said was a lie.

He and his neo-fascists need to go, and steps must be put in place to prevent
right-wing extremists from EVER AGAIN obtaining power.

Restriction of free speech and self-determination eh?

No.

Restriction on neo-fascism and right-wing extremism.

And no, neo-fascists don't deserve the right to self-determination.

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Verge Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 6329 Gender:	Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp Reply #102 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 2:22pm A poll four years from an election. This is useful.
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Bam

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Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp
Reply #103 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 2:26pm

St George of the Garden wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 11:12am:

Bam wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 10:52am:

St George of the Garden wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 9:54am:

This poll could be rogue

Not so much "rogue" (which I define to be outside the two standard deviations of the MoE which occurs about 5% of the time), but I believe it is heavily influenced by short term political news.

Quote:

Greens probably jubilant at the 2% jump in support—within the MoE of 2.6%

The quoted MoE is only applicable for polling figures near 50%. For lower figures around 10%, the MoE is significantly smaller.

For the Greens and other small parties—the MoE will be bigger which is why their support in these polls jumps around a lot.

The margin of error is smaller for smaller percentages, not larger.

The MoE is an estimation of the standard deviation and is calculated thus:

sqrt((P - P²) / N)

where P is the percentage of respondents, and N is the number of samples.

For this poll, sample size is 1400.

52% (ALP 2PP) gives a MoE of 1.34% (double it for two standard deviations and a 95% confidence interval).
11% (Greens primary) gives a MoE of 0.84%.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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greggerypeccary Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 139586 Gender:	Re: Labor ahead 52/48 tpp Reply #104 - Nov 25^th, 2013 at 2:30pm Verge wrote on Nov 25^th, 2013 at 2:22pm: A poll four years from an election. This is useful. Three years, actually. Moreover, there will be a federal senate election in WA within the next four months.
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