woody2014 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2014 at 5:01pm:



Hoisting your white flag aye.

The economics of coal are doomed and abbott wanting to link australia to a doomed industry just reinforces what costello called him … an economic illiterate.

bogarde73 wrote on Feb 6^th, 2014 at 2:49pm:



I would have thought how disappointing to have a PM who is an idiot.

All Fossil Fuels have already come under pressure, with the years since around 2000 seeing Production level out and in the years ahead we will see Production go into actual Decline.

In fact, Oil Production in Australia has already been in Decline, since around 2000 & since then, Oil Consumption has continued to increase.


In fact, Australian Oil Production has now Declined some 50%, since its Peak around 2000.

This means that we & many other countries, who are in a similar or worse position, we are now STUCK WITH IMPORTING LARGER & LARGER AMOUNTS OF OIL, FROM LARGER OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, SUCH AS OPEC.

However, as the following article shows, these countries are actually using larger & larger percentages of their Production for their own Consumption, WHICH MEANS THEIR EXPORT PRODUCTION IS GENERALLY LEVELING OFF OR SHRINKING.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export_Land_Model

Therefore Supply & Demand laws have seen our Oil Energy Prices increase substantially since 2000.   

AND, believe it or not, a not to dissimilar process is underway in Coal, with estimates of how much Coal is left, far outweighing Reality, as the high grade coal is actually diminishing a lot quicker than generally acknowledged.
In addition, some 70% of Australian Coal is committed to "export" and that is likely to pick up, unless action is taken, as China's own massive supplies, are also set for substantial Declines & Japan is set to increase its take of Coal, as they get out of Nuclear Energy.

All of which means, large increases are likely in Australian Coal Exports, in the years ahead, which will put addition strains locally, because it will drive up local Coal Prices, still higher.

But, the real kicker comes in 10-20 years, when Australia basically runs of of Oil & becomes desperate for Coal, ONLY TO FIND OUT THAT WE HAVE EXPORTED IT ALL & THERE'S STUFF ALL LEFT! 

No matter what anyone thinks of Politics, IF THE POLITICIANS CAN'T PROPERLY PROVIDE FOR THE LONG TERM FUTURE OF OUR COUNTRY & THE FUTURE OF OUR CHILDREN, THEN WE SHOULD JUST CONTINUE TO GET THE INCUMBENTS OUT OF THE WAY, UNTIL THESE SELF INTEREST CLOWNS LEARN THAT ITS ALL OF US, NOT JUST A FEW OF THEM, THAT'S WHAT IS VITAL!!!

Oh & I nearly forgot CSG & Fracking, which is totally oversold, as Production Peaks very quickly & within the decade most of the easy/cheap stuff will be gone and in any event there is a real interchangeability problem, in switch these major Energy sources, it either can't be done, the cost are prohibitive &/or the time lags are simply horrendous!

Cheers? 

So, as demonstrated in the following post, Oil Production in OZ had Peaked & is in Decline.
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1391662139/19#19

Now, the leading Coal Producer is currently China.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_coal_production

But where is their future heading?
Well, I think that is best put by the following chart, which clearly says that Chinese Coal Production will only have a limited period of time, before it also starts to Decline.


And, what of the US, who are the 2nd great Global Coal Producer?


Well, it seems they have already Peaked!

So, what happens, when the Fossil Fuels Supply is disappearing, do we sit on our hands & wait until the Price goes thru the roo OR it is all gone, before we take action to replace it?

Fit of Absent Mindeness wrote on Feb 7^th, 2014 at 10:12am:


Well, I think it's Safe to say, THAT ALL POLITICIANS PUT THE PUBLIC'S FUTURE, QUITE LOW ON THEIR PRIORITY LIST!

Conversely, THE SHORT TERM INTERESTS OF ALL POLITICIANS & THEIR "BACKERS", ARE VERY HIGH ON THEIR PRIORITY LIST!

Further to the Coal side of the Fossil Fuels Dilemma.



Anthracite
U.S. Geological SurveyAnthracite coal. Source: U.S. Geological SurveyThe highest rank of coal is anthracite, a hard black coal that burns with little flame and smoke, has the highest fixed-carbon content, 86–98 percent, and a heating value of 13,500–15,600 Btu/lb (14.2–16.5 million joules/lb).

Bituminous coal
U.S. Geological SurveyBituminous coal. Credit: U.S. Geological SurveyBituminous coal is a soft coal that produces smoke and ash when burned, has a 46–86 percent fixed-carbon content and a heating value of 11,000–15,000 Btu/lb (11.6–15.8 million joules/lb).
Bituminous coal is the most abundant economically recoverable coal globally and the main fuel burned in steam turbine-powered electric generating plants.

Subbituminous coal
Lignite coal that has been subjected to longer and deeper burial is converted to a darker and harder coal known as subbituminous coal.Subbituminous coal has a higher heating value than lignite. Subbituminous coal has a 46–60 percent fixed-carbon content and a heating value of 8,300–13,000 Btu/lb (8.8–13.7 million joules/lb). Although its heat value is lower, subbituminous coal coal generally has a lower sulfur content than other types, which makes it attractive for use because it is cleaner burning.

Lignite
Lignite, or brown coal, is the lowest rank of coal.  It has a 46–60 percent fixed-carbon content, but the lowest heating value, 5,500–8,300 Btu/lb (5.8–8.8 million joules/lb) of all coals.  Because of its low energy density, lignite coal is inefficient to transport and is not traded extensively on the world market compared with higher coal grades. It is often burned in power stations constructed very close to mines, so-called mine mouth power plants. Emissions from lignite coal fired plants are generally higher than for higher rank coal plants.

Peat
Peat is not defined as a coal, but it is an important early material formed in the coalification process. Peat is a soft organic material consisting of partly decayed plant matter together with deposited minerals. Peat forms in wetlands or peatlands, variously called bogs, moors, muskegs, pocosins, mires, and peat swamp forests. Peatlands are situated in wetland areas, primarily in the temperate and cold belt of the Northern Hemisphere, where large deposits developed from the gradual decomposition of plant matter under anaerobic conditions. Under the right conditions, peat is the earliest stage in the formation of coal.
http://www.theenergylibrary.com/node/12170

The best Energy return type of Coal is Anthracite, but US Production is virtually nil.
The next best  Energy return type of Coal is Bituminous coal, But Production of that has been in Decline, since around 1990.
The next best  Subbituminous coal and Productionl is Subbituminous coal and Production of that took off around 1970, quite possibly as Coal Producers saw the upcomig slip in Bituminous coal Production. However, it seems  Subbituminous Coal Production may also Peaked around 2007.
The least Energy return on real/aknowledged Coal is Lignite and Production of that has been & remains low.

What does all of this mean? Well, those types of Coal with the best Energy Value returns are in Decline, so it will take more of lower Energy value Coal to do the same job, which effectively means we pay more for the same job &/or we will simply pay higher prices, for those higher value Energy return types of Coal, as their Production Decline.

So, when is Tony going to slam the Fossil Fuels Decline and the problems that it is causing?