High Court orders new Senate poll for WA


http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/latest/a/21534031/high-court-orders-new-senate-...


West Australians will go back to the polls within weeks for an unprecedented standalone Senate election after the High Court today voided the results of last year’s disputed ballot.

High Court Justice Kenneth Hayne, sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns, granted the Australian Electoral Commission’s request for a fresh poll after agreeing the loss of 1370 ballot papers affected the close result.

It is understood Prime Minister Tony Abbott will have responsibility for setting the election date.

With the Constitution setting a minimum 33 days for an election campaign, March 29 looms as the earliest date Mr Abbott could call the poll.

Complicating the choice of dates is the need to avoid a clash with the Easter school holidays, which run from April 12 to April 27.

Delaying the election to May would also put the campaign period into the run up to the Federal Budget, when the Government is expected to make a raft of swingeing and unpopular cuts.

A Senate only election in just one State has never been held.

The new poll is expected to cost taxpayers at least $13 million.

It has the potential to cost the Liberals one of the three seats it won in September, making Mr Abbott more reliant on crossbenchers to pass key legislation.

The AEC has been deeply embarrassed by the lost votes bungle.

The initial count gave Palmer United Party’s Dio Wang and Labor Senator Louise Pratt the last two seats but a re-count awarded the seats to the Sports Party’s Wayne Dropulich and the Greens’ Scott Ludlam.

The result hinged on whether the Australian Christian Party or the Shooters and Fishers Party were eliminated first.

PUP and Labor benefited with the Shooters 14 votes ahead but the re-count gave the Christians a 12-vote gap, changing preference flows.

Analysis of the original tallies show that if the ballot papers had not been lost, the Shooters would have been one vote ahead, delivering the seats to PUP and Labor.

The AEC argued that a new election was required because the number of lost votes exceeded the margin.

I expect this election will be held on Saturday 5 April. Abbott will want the election held before the May budget (which will have numerous unpopular measures), and the recent Nielsen poll may influence his decision on the date.

Unlike the Griffith by-election, there will be a swing against the Government. The Barnett government in WA has declined in popularity since the September Federal election due to the unpopular shark cull and other reasons. Federally, Bludgertrack is tracking a 7% swing against the Federal Coalition in WA.

The Coalition will have difficulty holding their three seats. They may still do so with a 5% swing, although with a swing of that size their third seat would go to the WA Nationals rather than the Liberals. ALP would win 2 seats and the Greens 1; PUP would be shut out because their preferences would be needed to elect a third Coalition candidate. It is also possible with a 5% swing that the Greens will not win the final seat. The ALP will exceed two quotas, so they will get a seat, but the ALP may not deliver enough surplus votes to ensure the Greens win the final seat.

With a 10% swing, the Coalition will be unlikely to win three seats. In this scenario, the Coalition candidate (most likely WA Nationals) will be competing with PUP for the final seat. Most likely, PUP will get the final seat if they receive ALP and Greens preferences.

The critical point is when the result swings from four conservatives (Coalition/PUP) and two progressives (ALP/Greens) to a three-three split. This occurs with a swing around the 5% to 7% range, so with a likely 7% swing we may see another close election even more contentious than the last. Minor party votes will be crucial.

Thanks to scott morrison, Tony will secure an even greater majority.
They should build a statue of scott on Manus Island.
Good to see you chanting "go scott go" greenswin. A rare moment of lucidity

aquascoot wrote on Feb 18^th, 2014 at 12:10pm:



Is Scott Morrison a W.A Senator?


Which Party?

Meanwhile will the real scott step forward


http://fieldnotes.org.au

Bam wrote on Feb 18^th, 2014 at 11:39am:


You can only hope there's a swing. Barnett is on the nose - and Greg Hunt should be too, but Abbott has had time to gather some bad publicity about Labor and will no doubt push out some very negative propaganda in the meantime.

Let's hope there are a few environmentalists in WA who don't want the state wiped out with mining by a gungho Federal and state government who don't respect our heritage and environmental laws. These protections have taken a long time to become established yet the current government can remove them in an instant.

mantra wrote on Feb 18^th, 2014 at 12:35pm:

Numerous companies have dished out their own bad news since the government was elected. People who are freshly out of work do not tend to vote for incumbent governments or candidates.

gizmo_2655 wrote on Feb 18^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

He's probably expecting machinations that involve blocking of supply and a dismissal. I doubt that will happen.

What is more likely is a new Senate election, a reduction in WA conservatives from four to three and a corresponding increase in WA progressives. This would make it more difficult for Abbott to get legislation though the Senate.