Aussie wrote on Mar 25
th, 2014 at 5:02pm:
Looks like PUP is doing okay in the lead-up to the WA Senate (re) election.
Click here. Quote:based on 247 interviews.
Margin of error is rather high - the 10.5% translates to about 26 people.
Quote:Clive Palmer's multimillion-dollar advertising splurge ahead of the April 5 Senate election is threatening to wrest a seat from the Liberal Party.
If that happens, that will be the first time that the Liberals have returned less than 3 Senators in WA since 1970.
(1970 - 5 Senators; 1974 - DD; 1975 - DD; 1977 and 1980 - Liberals in office; 1983 - DD; 1984 - 7 Senators elected due to expansion of the Senate; 1987 - DD; 1990 - first election with 6 Senators. 3 Liberals at every election since then.) Quote:One in 10 (10.5 per cent) of those interviewed in the past fortnight said they were going to vote for PUP on April 5, compared with 37 per cent for the Liberals, 32 per cent for the ALP and 13.5 per cent for the Greens.
Figures for the Nationals are also significant, around 4%. This can be enough to give the Liberals 3 quotas on preferences ahead of PUP. These figures suggest a swing against the government of about 5% is on.
On these figures, Liberals and ALP - 2 primary quotas each. Greens elect one candidate on ALP preferences. Leftover preferences for Greens and ALP will decide the last seat for the conservative side - PUP or Liberals? Hard to say. Minor party preferences will decide the outcome. If leftover Greens preferences are distributed between the Liberals and PUP, the preference flows will strongly favour PUP.