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Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators (Read 11749 times)

bogarde73 Gold Member Offline Anti-Global & Contra Mundum Posts: 18443 Gender:	Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators Reply #150 - Apr 1^st, 2014 at 1:14pm I'd put your money on "very likely".
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Bam

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Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators
Reply #151 - Apr 1^st, 2014 at 2:44pm

bogarde73 wrote on Apr 1^st, 2014 at 1:14pm:

I'd put your money on "very likely".

Yes, it would seem to be a prediction that is close to the mark. The only point of difference I have is that the third right-leaning Senator may not necessarily be a Liberal. If the Liberals and WA Nationals poll less than three quotas between them (possible but I think this is unlikely), the third conservative seat is in doubt.

I rate PUP's chances higher than the meagre 1% or so that the simulation gave because the simulation gave PUP only 3.5% of the vote. This is much less than the 10% or so that PUP has scored in some opinion polls. The Liberals are still likely to return three Senators (this is a change on earlier predictions I have made) but the Nationals and PUP are also in with a chance. If the Greens and ALP poll well and their leftover votes end up being distributed between the Liberals and PUP, PUP will get about 90% of them. Not many parties preferenced the Liberals ahead of PUP.

One thing is clear though. The Senate looks like it is going to return a 3-3 split between conservatives and progressives. This contrasts to the 4 conservatives, 2 progressives result of the election (assuming that Dropolich of the Sports Party was conservative-leaning).

You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Aussie Gold Member Online OzPolitic Posts: 38822 Gender:	Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators Reply #152 - Apr 3^rd, 2014 at 4:34pm Can't see Abbott or Shorten willing to try this stuff.
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Aussie Gold Member Online OzPolitic Posts: 38822 Gender:	Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators Reply #153 - Apr 3^rd, 2014 at 7:10pm "The lady said she'd fix it up for me." Blaaaady hell!
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cods Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 88048	Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators Reply #154 - Apr 4^th, 2014 at 9:45am I am hoping the good people of W.A. will be thoroughly turned off by Palmers.bid to BUY their vote.. its so crude and ugly... a bit like him I guess. good luck W.A...do the right thing dont be BOUGHT your vote isnt for SALE to the one with the most money...
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polite_gandalf

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Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators
Reply #155 - Apr 4^th, 2014 at 11:23am

Bam wrote on Apr 1^st, 2014 at 11:49am:

Truth Seeker has modelled the WA Senate outcome using a Monte Carlo simulation.

Assumptions:
LIB: 37.1%
NAT: 4.5%
ALP: 31.5%
GRN: 12.3%
PUP: 3.5%
OTH: 11.0% (a detailed breakdown for all the minor party groups is in the blog post)

He has assumed only 3.5% vote for PUP which IMO is a bit low given the level of advertising and recent opinion polling.

His findings are interesting.

Very likely (>90% likelihood):
LIB: 3 (3rd Senator with 91% likelihood)
ALP: 2 (100%)
GRN: 1 (93%)

Unlikely:
NAT: 7%
ALP3: 6% (third ALP Senator)
WIKI: 1.2% (Wiki are in group A and would benefit from the donkey vote)
PUP: 0.6%
DEM: 0.5%

On the small chance of electing a third NAT Senator, he states the following: "In terms of a left-right breakdown, note that my modelling does not show NAT being elected when 3 LIB are elected - the NAT is an unlikely substitute for the 3rd LIB Senator."

I'll take 3 libs if it means Greens get in ahead of PUP.

12%+ is an impressive swing for Greens - especially in WA. Apparently they are getting a boost from the shark cull.

A resident Islam critic who claims to represent western values said:
Quote:

Outlawing the enemy's uniform - hijab, islamic beard - is not depriving one's own people of their freedoms.

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Clive Palmer hopeful of 2 more senators Reply #156 - Apr 6^th, 2014 at 8:52am Good election result for the Palmer United Party. Looks like they got a senator in WA.
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