Australian Politics Forum - The state of Queensland.

Grappler Deep State Feller Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 85489 Always was always will be HOME Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #420 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 4:21am Anyone got the final score? Hmm looks like Labor have 43 and need two more to govern absolute in own right.... several in the balance...
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Ex Dame Pansi Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 24168	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #421 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 6:28am 45 with possibly one other.
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Bam

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #422 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 8:54am

Bam wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 9:38am:

Another thing that may cause a few surprises on election night is the widespread use of preference flows from the 2012 election when calculating 2PP by the various pollsters. This is flawed because the various parties are allocating their preferences differently this time.

For example, The Greens had a "just vote 1" campaign in 2012, while this time they are preferencing the ALP second in a large number of winnable seats. Other minor parties are putting the LNP last including PUP (which didn't exist in 2012). The protest vote factor was against the ALP in 2012 and will be against the LNP in 2015.

Any assertion that the preference flows will be identical has nothing to support it but is just a guess.

The 52-48 2PP based on 2012 preferences is therefore a little optimistic for the LNP. If these samples were accurate the actual election result may be closer, perhaps 51-49 or so.

For more detailed analyses, see this post and this post at PollBludger.

It is interesting to see this prediction borne out.

Some PollBludger posters were the first to mention this. The PollBludger posters even recalculated the 52-48 2PP from the published opinion polls with different weightings (using the byelection results as a guide). They came up with 50-50 results.

The commentators on the ABC election coverage criticised the opinion pollsters' widespread usage of 2012 preference flows to calculate the 2PP figure. This polling method masks the effect of swings against the government.

The LNP led on primary votes in 50 seats, but preference flows were enough to change the result in 10 seats. Preference flows were important in this election, much more than many expected.

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Ex Dame Pansi

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #423 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 10:11am

Emma wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:59pm:

Yes

Goodbye Campbell
Goodbye Pucci

WELL DONE QLDERS Smiley

What a great day Emma, I am over the moon, hard work in hot weather but the results are worth every minute of it. I knew the results in my electorate after the first hour, so many people were saying we have to smack him off! Our LNP bloke and Newman both got the flick, maybe the whole LNP Party, the icing on the cake.

Queensland woke up, woohoo!!!!

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"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace." Hendrix
andrei said: Great isn't it? Seeing boatloads of what is nothing more than human garbage turn up.....

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Aussie Gold Member Offline OzPolitic Posts: 38867 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #424 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 4:05pm "Housekeeping." Link. Link.
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Emma

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #425 - Feb 1^st, 2015 at 7:43pm

Ex Dame Pansi wrote on Feb 1^st, 2015 at 10:11am:

Emma wrote on Jan 31^st, 2015 at 7:59pm:

Yes

Goodbye Campbell
Goodbye Pucci

WELL DONE QLDERS Smiley

What a great day Emma, I am over the moon, hard work in hot weather but the results are worth every minute of it. I knew the results in my electorate after the first hour, so many people were saying we have to smack him off! Our LNP bloke and Newman both got the flick, maybe the whole LNP Party, the icing on the cake.

Queensland woke up, woohoo!!!!

Totally with you there Pansi.. even a hung parliament is better than Newman and cronies,. but it'd be great if Labor wins outright. So sick of the LNP I'd be happy to never hear from any one of them ever again. As it is.. looks like we'll have a bit of a scrap ahead.

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Emma

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #426 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 12:20am

To listen to the losing LNP members.. we just didn't understand their message. ( tell ya guys we understood perfectly well)

The Filth Flegg tried to explain why with such a huge majority meant ignorant newbies who hadn't a clue.. they were Newman's cronies and did wrong things . GASP.

Never let it be said the LNP take responsibility for their abysmal govt. Nor do they regret their arrogance.

The best description of the FORMER NEWMAN GOVT. ??

No better than a bunch of schoolyard bullies.

Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish.!!!!!!!!!

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live every day

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #427 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 3:06am State of the LNP
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aquascoot

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #428 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:32am

Emma wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 12:20am:

To listen to the losing LNP members.. we just didn't understand their message. ( tell ya guys we understood perfectly well)

The Filth Flegg tried to explain why with such a huge majority meant ignorant newbies who hadn't a clue.. they were Newman's cronies and did wrong things . GASP.

Never let it be said the LNP take responsibility for their abysmal govt. Nor do they regret their arrogance.

The best description of the FORMER NEWMAN GOVT. ??

No better than a bunch of schoolyard bullies.

Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish.!!!!!!!!!

Not schoolyard bullies at all.
Just responsible adults who told you you have to eat your broccoli and you cant just skip straight to dessert.
of course, sooks like yourself and pansi with no self discipline think that you can just have your dessert and you cry like a baby when you have to do something a bit difficult (like pay back a bit of debt and actually put your shoulder to the wheel and sweat).

But the day of reckoning is coming for the Emma's and pansi's.
It may not come for them , but it will come for their children and grandchildren as the state is taken over by Asian bankers who would be just loving the idea of labor further mortgaging the state.
It inter generational theft by pansi and emma so they can live like the queen and their grandchildren will have to sort this mess out.

What disgraceful people you are.
You should be ashamed Angry

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ImSpartacus2

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #429 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:53am

aquascoot wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:32am:

Emma wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 12:20am:

To listen to the losing LNP members.. we just didn't understand their message. ( tell ya guys we understood perfectly well)

The Filth Flegg tried to explain why with such a huge majority meant ignorant newbies who hadn't a clue.. they were Newman's cronies and did wrong things . GASP.

Never let it be said the LNP take responsibility for their abysmal govt. Nor do they regret their arrogance.

The best description of the FORMER NEWMAN GOVT. ??

No better than a bunch of schoolyard bullies.

Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish.!!!!!!!!!

Not schoolyard bullies at all.
Just responsible adults who told you you have to eat your broccoli and you cant just skip straight to dessert.
of course, sooks like yourself and pansi with no self discipline think that you can just have your dessert and you cry like a baby when you have to do something a bit difficult (like pay back a bit of debt and actually put your shoulder to the wheel and sweat).

But the day of reckoning is coming for the Emma's and pansi's.
It may not come for them , but it will come for their children and grandchildren as the state is taken over by Asian bankers who would be just loving the idea of labor further mortgaging the state.
It inter generational theft by pansi and emma so they can live like the queen and their grandchildren will have to sort this mess out.

What disgraceful people you are.
You should be ashamed Angry

Victoria sold its fantastic public owned electricity grid and now it belongs to the Singapore government who saw a great money spinner and have been laughing all the way to the bank ever since . Now that's what I call taking over this country, so you know your talk about the Asian Bankers coming to take over this country unless we vote for conservative govts sounds somewhat hollow. We are losing our country because of the push by conservative govts (mainly LNP) over 3 decades to knock down our trade barriers and sell our govt owned assets. I hope one day the australian community will see this for the betrayal that it was.

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aquascoot

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #430 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:59am

ImSpartacus2 wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:53am:

aquascoot wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 7:32am:

Emma wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 12:20am:

To listen to the losing LNP members.. we just didn't understand their message. ( tell ya guys we understood perfectly well)

The Filth Flegg tried to explain why with such a huge majority meant ignorant newbies who hadn't a clue.. they were Newman's cronies and did wrong things . GASP.

Never let it be said the LNP take responsibility for their abysmal govt. Nor do they regret their arrogance.

The best description of the FORMER NEWMAN GOVT. ??

No better than a bunch of schoolyard bullies.

Good Riddance to Bad Rubbish.!!!!!!!!!

Not schoolyard bullies at all.
Just responsible adults who told you you have to eat your broccoli and you cant just skip straight to dessert.
of course, sooks like yourself and pansi with no self discipline think that you can just have your dessert and you cry like a baby when you have to do something a bit difficult (like pay back a bit of debt and actually put your shoulder to the wheel and sweat).

But the day of reckoning is coming for the Emma's and pansi's.
It may not come for them , but it will come for their children and grandchildren as the state is taken over by Asian bankers who would be just loving the idea of labor further mortgaging the state.
It inter generational theft by pansi and emma so they can live like the queen and their grandchildren will have to sort this mess out.

What disgraceful people you are.
You should be ashamed Angry

Victoria sold its fantastic public owned electricity grid and now it belongs to the Singapore government who saw a great money spinner and have been laughing all the way to the bank ever since . Now that's what I call taking over this country, so you know your talk about the Asian Bankers coming to take over this country unless we vote for conservative govts sounds somewhat hollow. We are losing our country because of the push by conservative govts (mainly LNP) over 3 decades to knock down our trade barriers and sell our govt owned assets. I hope one day the australian community will see this for the betrayal that it was.

true Spartacus, I agree , they are both as bad as each other.
But if the whiney sooks would stop asking for more and more, then they wouldn't need to sell the stuff to pay for a selfish electorate of ingrates

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St George of the Garden

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #431 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:10am

LNP sells assets because that is the neocon belief.

Please don’t throw the blame onto the ordinary people of Australia. It is the LNP and its spivs and shonk hangers on are responsible for asset sales. All these damn asset sales mean the govt has a lot less revenue! the Howard privatisation of Telstra was the height of stupidity, but the Rodent wanted more money to hand out as pork!

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: The state of Queensland. Reply #432 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:13am Selling profitable assets is stupid. It's like selling the house to pay the mortgage, or selling the cow instead of the milk.
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St George of the Garden

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #433 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:20am

Not only that, it is the top end of town get all the handouts:

–diesel fuel rebate

–get away with transfer pricing

–“Australia tax”

–concessionary tax rate on super contributions, since Howard the super rich can avoid huge amounts of tax

–negative gearing

–concessionary capital gains tax

–churches not taxed

Ordinary people want their kids to be educated, a fair days pay for a fair days work and to be looked after when they retire. Australia is way down the OPEC scale re the amount of the pension and what those on NewStart get is criminally low!

Funnily enough, what the ordinary people want is also good for the country.

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ImSpartacus2

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Re: The state of Queensland.
Reply #434 - Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:22am

St George of the Garden wrote on Feb 3^rd, 2015 at 10:10am:

LNP sells assets because that is the neocon belief.

Please don’t throw the blame onto the ordinary people of Australia. It is the LNP and its spivs and shonk hangers on are responsible for asset sales. All these damn asset sales mean the govt has a lot less revenue! the Howard privatisation of Telstra was the height of stupidity, but the Rodent wanted more money to hand out as pork!

I dont blame the aust people for assets sales. If anyone gets how stupid assets sales is its the aust people. Its the pollies that have done this against the good sense of the people and that's why we need a direct democracy. Sick and tired of our soi called representatives always acting as our worst enemy.

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