Aussie wrote on Feb 5
th, 2015 at 7:37am:
There are 4 seats still to be 'called.'
Lockyer. Pauline is back in with a chance. It is held by the LNP and with 83.9% counted, Pauline is 214 votes behind. The ABC call it as 'in doubt.' This does not worry the ALP because if Pauline wins, it is one less seat for the LNP.
Maryborough. The ALP look clear. It is held by the LNP and with 85.3% counted, the ALP are ahead by 831 votes. The ABC call it as a likely ALP win.
Mount Ommeney. Held by the LNP and with 85.9% counted, the ALP trail by 367 votes. The ABC call it as a likely LNP win.
Whitsunday. Held by the LNP and with 83% counted, the ALP trail by just 88 votes. The ABC call it as 'in doubt.'
Today, the three minor party people are expected to indicate who they will support.
Edit:
It is clear:
ALP have 43 seats.
LNP have 39 seats.
KAP have 2 seats
Ind. has 1 seat.
Total decided = 85, so those 4 above yet to clarify.
I reckon the ALP have Maryborough, taking them to 44. I'm pretty confident the Independant, Willington (Nicklin) will support the ALP, giving them the magic 45.
On seats, the best the LNP can do is 42 assuming they win Lockyer, Mount Ommeney and Whitsunday. They would then need all three of the 'minor's to get to 45. Unlikely they will get Willington.
BUT:
Ferny Grove. The ALP have taken this off the LNP. It is this seat where the PUP candidate was not qualified. As at 8.23am this morning, the ALP were ahead by 509 votes with 82.6% counted. The PUP bloke had 836 votes. I doubt there will be a by-election. They will be able to work out how many of that 836 nominated preferences, but who really knows. The likely result of a by-election when things are so critical would be very hard to call.
Is Ferny Grove included in the 43 already "secured" by labor?
Poll Bludger noted a considerable narrowing in whitsunday in favour of labor yesterday - though they are still projected to narrowly lose.
I think the ABC projections are one by one being vindicated. For example Ferny Grove was given to labor from the very beginning. They seemed to be premature, but one by one they are all proving to have been right all along.