Aussie wrote on Feb 5
th, 2015 at 6:29pm:
Bam wrote on Feb 5
th, 2015 at 5:40pm:
Aussie wrote on Feb 5
th, 2015 at 5:23pm:
Update:
Lockyer: Pauline now 183 votes behind. Makes no real difference to the State outcome as it is held by the LNP. If they lose it, it does relax the numbers at the top.
Maryborough: ALP now 747 ahead. LNP have closed the gap a tad but still likely ALP win.
Mt. Ommaney: ALP 201 behind. Sneaking up, but still a likely LNP hold.
Whitsunday: ALP now 305 behind. Looks more like an LNP hold.
ABC is currently including Ferny Grove as another seat in doubt, ALP 348 votes ahead.
Poll Bludger has similar figures, but does not include Lockyer (probably because it's not an ALP vs LNP contest so makes no difference to the outcome). Poll Bludger also has Mansfield.
Ferny Grove ALP 348 ahead
Whitsunday ALP 416 behind
Mount Ommaney ALP 329 behind
Mansfield ALP 407 behind
I'd put
Ferny Grove into the irrelevant basket. It is a possible nuisance but ....... ("Aussie"...do not post legal commentary on stuff you know zero about!)
Whitsunday is already an LNP seat....so.....no drama there. Bonus if the ALP win.
Mount Ommaney............same as Whitsunday.
Mansfield..............same as Whitsunday.
If the ALP win
Maryborough (on track to do so,) then with Wellington (Nicklin) they have the magic number of 45.
Would be wise to keep the two KAP bods happy....just in case.
Maryborough is an ALP win, and that with Wellington, takes Labor to the required 45 to govern (with the Independant Wellington's support.)
As at 3.53pm today, with 91.47% counted, the ALP is 746 ahead in
Maryborough.
Whitsunday. Held by the LNP. As at 3.03pm today, with 86.58% counted, LNP ahead by 313. They should hold.
Lockyer: Held by the LNP. As at 4.13pm today, with 91.11% counted, Pauline trails by 183 votes. She is just hanging on. Hard to win from there.
Mt Ommaney: Held by the LNP. As at 4.13pm today with 92.52% counted, LNP ahead by 187. They should hold.
Ferny Grove. Well it is already in the bag for the ALP, but there is still that doubt about what will happen given the disqualification of the PUP candidate.
Sounds promising Aussie.
I really cannot see how a bi-election could be justified in Ferny Grove.
It would be a bad choice, and would NOT be looked on kindly by the constituents.
As I understand it, the PUP preferences would have no impact on the outcome and as such no justification for the expense and angst such a move would create could be lawfully shown.
I think any attempt to do so would be seen in the worst possible light by the people of Queensland.