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The Senate Election This Weekend. (Read 2253 times)
philperth2010
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #15 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 5:08pm
 
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:58pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:50pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:22pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm:
Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up???

Huh Huh Huh


Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs.


I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!!

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


According to your ID you also live in Perth. You should therefore be aware that Labor are on the nose here more than any other state and get a substantially lower vote than the libs and nats. Clearly the word 'nobody' is not meant to be taken literally.


Are you telling me Barnett and the Libs are popular.....I cannot agree???

Huh Huh Huh

From the Australian....

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/coalitions-wa-slump-spurs-senat...

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/property/colin-barnett-tries-to-steer-a...

Quote:
Brookfield has been appointed on the hotel development which is being erected on a former golf course the state government sold to Crown for $65m. The plot had been valued at $90m.

News of Crown’s rumoured proposal sparked controversy in Perth where Mr Barnett has faced criticism over the sale of the golf course to Crown at a discount to its book value.

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« Last Edit: Apr 5th, 2014 at 5:14pm by philperth2010 »  

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cods
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #16 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 5:16pm
 
I trust the weather has done the right thing phil... to get the fed up voters out and about...

this in fact will be very very interesting....as its at Fed Level and I do not recall such an early test as this before...I bet it will be watched from far and wide..

you have an excellent chance to change your vote now...especially for those that thought a throw away vote to an independent was meaningless...only to see him/her win a seat....

not long now......
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Grendel
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #17 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 5:17pm
 
Let's hope Western Australians are brighter than I currently think they are.
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Mandy_oz
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #18 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm
 
philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 5:08pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:58pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:50pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 4:22pm:
philperth2010 wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 3:22pm:
Already voted this morning.....No one handing out Clive Palmer how to vote cards which was strange considering how much he spent on advertising.....A lot of people taking Greens how to vote cards however which could see Scott Ludlam get up???

Huh Huh Huh


Do you really think Palmer is going to get many votes here? He just looks and sounds like a blow-in (or blow-hard). I don't think much will change really. Nobody likes Labor. Most people hates the Greens and the rest just tolerate libs.


I am sorry but I do not agree with that generalisation.....The ALP still receive a sizable vote which makes your comment a bit absurd really!!!

Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


According to your ID you also live in Perth. You should therefore be aware that Labor are on the nose here more than any other state and get a substantially lower vote than the libs and nats. Clearly the word 'nobody' is not meant to be taken literally.


Are you telling me Barnett and the Libs are popular.....I cannot agree???

Huh Huh Huh

From the Australian....



Quote:
Brookfield has been appointed on the hotel development which is being erected on a former golf course the state government sold to Crown for $65m. The plot had been valued at $90m.

News of Crown’s rumoured proposal sparked controversy in Perth where Mr Barnett has faced criticism over the sale of the golf course to Crown at a discount to its book value.



The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.
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Bam
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #19 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm
 
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm:
The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split.

Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.

If the swing is larger and the Liberals don't get to 3 quotas on Nationals preferences, the Liberals are almost friendless in preferences from other parties (except for WA Nationals), and Palmer's party will take the last seat. That requires a large swing combined with a good PUP primary vote of around 7%.
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True Colours
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #20 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:45pm
 
Bam wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm:
The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split.

Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.



It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals.
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Aussie
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #21 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm
 
True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:45pm:
Bam wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm:
The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split.

Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.



It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals.


Got a link?
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True Colours
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #22 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 10:19pm
 
Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm:
Got a link?


I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's.
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Aussie
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #23 - Apr 5th, 2014 at 11:22pm
 
True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 10:19pm:
Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm:
Got a link?


I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's.


Not any more.
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woody2014
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #24 - Apr 6th, 2014 at 8:20am
 
Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 11:22pm:
True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 10:19pm:
Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm:
Got a link?


I was looking at the early counting being  shown on the ABC - the numbers are jumping around a bit though. That 2nd Labor seat is looking a bit shaky as is Palmer's.


Not any more.
WA Senate election results show swing away from major parties

Updated 1 hour 46 minutes ago

WA Senate election re-run scrutineers at Mt Lawley
Photo: Projected results show there is unlikely to be any change in the make-up of the Senate. (ABC News: Garrett Mundy)
Related Story: As it happened: WA Senate election results Related Story: Campaigns start for WA's April 5 senate election

Map:  WA


The Greens and the Palmer United Party (PUP) have emerged as the big winners after Western Australia's Senate election re-run.

On projected results the Greens have picked up a 6.7 per cent swing, which would ensure Scott Ludlam retains his Senate seat.

PUP also looks to have picked up a seat with a popular vote of about 7 per cent.

The projected data from the ABC's election analyst Antony Green showed the Liberals and the ALP had falls of 5.6 and 5 per cent respectively.

"The overall balance between the two parties, it looks like it's going to be exactly the same as it was last September," he said.

The Liberals appear to have secured two seats with Labor reduced to one.


WA Senate election results

As counting continues in the election re-run, you can find all the numbers on the ABC's results page.


Mr Green said it appeared swings away from the two major parties had transferred to the Greens and PUP.

The outcome for the sixth seat remains unclear and the Australian Electoral Commission says it may be weeks before the final results are known.

The blame game has already begun to determine what caused the swing away from the two major parties, with a backlash against union involvement in the Labor Party and a protest vote against the Government appearing the key factors.

Greens Senator Ludlam lost his seat in the first count in September, but regained it on the second count when the lost votes were not included.

He said he was "tremendously proud" looking at the early results.

"Our campaign isn't funded by the coal industry or gas industry," he said.



We had a strong online campaign backing up the most motivated grassroots face-to-face campaign that I've ever seen.

Senator Scott Ludlam



"The only way to compete with the major party financing by big business or Clive Palmer buying seats, is people power.

"We had a strong online campaign backing up the most motivated grassroots face-to-face campaign that I've ever seen."

Former Labor senator Chris Evans said the Greens had run a good campaign.

"The Greens certainly won the campaign in the sense that they were able to promote an image through their candidate," he said.

"They were creative. And quite frankly both the major parties looked a bit dull in comparison.

"As I say there was nothing at stake. And people I think were prepared to shop around and look around at alternatives for the major parties because government wasn't at stake."

Union involvement in ALP's preselection process under scrutiny

As attention turned to what caused the swing away from the major parties, Mr Evans was critical of Labor's preselection process.

The decision to put the former union heavyweight Joe Bullock ahead of sitting Senator Louise Pratt on Labor's ticket was publicly criticised within the party at the time.

"In my view there's no question that the Labor Party has a serious problem with its preselection processes, particularly in Western Australia," Mr Evans said.
Joe Bullock waits for fellow Labor candidate Louise Pratt to vote below the line in the WA Senate election re-run.
Photo: Joe Bullock waits for fellow Labor candidate Louise Pratt to vote below the line in the WA Senate election. (ABC News: Jessica Strutt)



"We had a situation where two large unions were able to make a decision about the candidates.

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THE DUMB LEFTIES ON THIS BOARD  DONT KNOW IF THERE WINDING THEIR ARSE OR SCRATCHING THEIR WATCH
 
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Bam
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Re: The Senate Election This Weekend.
Reply #25 - Apr 6th, 2014 at 9:07am
 
Aussie wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:46pm:
True Colours wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 9:45pm:
Bam wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 8:48pm:
Mandy_oz wrote on Apr 5th, 2014 at 6:24pm:
The Libs got a 51% primary vote at the federal election. I think that scores a mark of ' much more popular than labor'.

State libs are losing popularity but politics is still largely about who is least unpopular rather than any party scoring major triumphs.

The Federal election is irrelevant. What matters now is the Senate poll, where a swing against the government is very likely. The general consensus among the pundits is that the swing will be large enough to alter the balance from 4-2 in favour of conservative candidates to a 3-3 split.

Most likely outcome: Liberals 3 (not since 1970 has WA returned less than 3 Liberals), ALP 2, Greens 1.



It is starting to look like ALP2 Greens1 Liberals2 PUP1 - not a good result for the Liberals.


Got a link?

I have a link to Antony Green's Senate calculator here: WA Senate Calculator

It is interesting to put the actual results (by percentage) into the calculator. It gives a result of Liberals 2, ALP 2, Greens 1, PUP 1. The first four candidates were elected on quotas: Liberals 2, ALP 1, Greens 1. The last two candidates have to wait until the minor parties were eliminated one by one.

It came down to 4 candidates (listed by percentage and quota):
PUP 14.17% 0.9906
ALP 10.70% 0.7493
LIB 10.41 0.7289
HEMP 7.57% 0.5300

When the HEMP candidates was eliminated, the PUP and ALP candidates were both elected, leaving the Liberals without a third seat.

PUP 15.68% 1.0973
ALP 14.40% 1.0077
LIB 12.79% 0.8949

The sixth seat is between the ALP and Liberals. The count is fairly close, and below-the-line voting may decide the outcome. There is a suggestion that more ALP voters voted below the line than usual so they could put Pratt first, but I have not seen any numerical evidence for this.

If the election result is LIB 2, ALP 2, Greens 1, PUP 1, it would match an earlier prediction I first made a few months ago. The only other election result that is possible is LIB 3, ALP 1, Greens 1, PUP 1.
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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.
 
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