Dan Andrews, the self-described "absolute golf-tragic", is at the driving range, having granted himself the luxury of a few minutes to belt some balls at the evening sky to clear his head.

Golf, he is fond of telling people, is not dissimilar to politics. You'll never beat golf. You can only do your best, and when you are behind, all you need is one good shot to come back.

That's the optimistic way of looking at it. In his darker moments Andrews might equally wonder if he isn't equally one shot away from freezing, giving it all away, hitting the ball off the course. In recent weeks his game has wavered.

His opponent, Denis Napthine, has been warning Victorians for months not to trust him, not to risk the state's security and prosperity by voting Labor on November 29.      


In these troubling times of terrorism and national security threats, Napthine's ominous predictable warnings about

"militant unions"

and financial ruin under Labor seems to carry more weight.

People are nervous about the ever-present threat posed by terrorism. The enemy is hidden, everywhere and nowhere. More than ever, people desire security, certainty and comfort. This tends to favour political incumbents.

But is there not also the hope of something better around the corner? Something fresher, younger?

The big question - as always - will be whether voters' natural risk aversion trumps the possible reward of a change. It is a simple enough political equation. Andrews knows he must do more than highlight the government's failings if he is to win. He must offer a credible alternative.

Has Andrews done enough? The election is, according to the polls, his to lose. For much of the past four years Andrews has played a consistent, if unspectacular, game. He has spoken a bit about the big issues that matter to Victorians: health, education, jobs and public transport. But he has also avoided making himself a target.

Andrews has also had a bit of luck, which he has milked to his strategic advantage. Geoff Shaw's balance of power position in the Parliament, for example, created a damaging and persistent distraction for the government. Andrews exploited this mercilessly, borrowing from Tony Abbott's strategy of ruthless obstructionism.

Nor has the outlook for the state economy helped the Coalition's prospects.

Since the government came to office, the state's official unemployment rate has risen from 4.9 per cent to almost 7 per

cent.     

Total employment has grown about 110,000 since December 2010, but this nothing to crow about. Over the same period, Victoria's working age population swelled by almost three times that amount. Employment growth hasn't even come close to matching population growth, pushing the unemployment rate to the highest level since the turn of the century.    

Then there is Tony Abbott.

Labor's

focus group research has been showing for months that

Prime Minister Abbott is toxic in Victoria

cont ...

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