Australian Politics Forum - Largest jobs growth for 23 years

St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #105 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:43pm No, the stupid attempt to go for a surplus boosted unemployment. What monkey, Hokey and the rest of the shambles are doing will accelerate that. Since we are not sure just what the unemployment rate is for the last two months lets not get too dogmatic eh?
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John Smith

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #106 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:30pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:41pm:

John Smith wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:34pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:33pm:

John Smith wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:22pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

except that that black line is what A LIBERAL CHEERLEADER SEE'S , NOT A STATISTICIAN

and the real trend is somehwere in the middle of that line longie ....

looks like it's going up to me ... why do you pretend its going down?

clearly, you've never done curve/line fitting, but then again any kind of maths probably eludes you.

and yet you are the one struggling to read the graph Grin

IM not sure if it is your maths or English comprehension that is worst. I have NEVER said unemployment is going down. In fact, I have been saying repeatedly that it has been trending UP for the last almost 3 years at roughly the same rate.

if you are going to disagree with me at lease do so with something I actually SAID.

creating arguments against your own stupidity now? I've highlighted what I said for your benefit ..

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #107 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:41pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:20pm:

Dnarever wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:15pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

Normalise the whole chart and see what you get also cover the period that you originally specified and not just the part that gives the illusion you want.

Quote:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating

That I agree with but its not what you originally said. it clearly accelerated through the later part of 2013 and continued into 2014.

it is you that is after illusion. you want a chart that says labor kept unemployment low and it only increased under Abbott. not even your pitiful retelling of statistics can't manufacture that fantasy.

I never held that opinion. However it was relatively stable for most of the term your 3 year of constant upward trending is clearly not shown on your graph.

You have failed to include 2011/2012 in your 3 year trend ? over that period it was relatively flat, increasing slightly in 2012/13 and accelerating in 2013/14. If you go back the full Labor term you see it starting low - bumping up slightly at the beginning of the GFC and coming back down with the stimulus then remaining relatively stable till 2013.

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Bam

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #108 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:48pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:17am:

Bam wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

which is PRECISELY what I have been saying. I am enjoying watching you clowns having to backpedal from last months hysteria. I studied university statistics and have been folloing polling for decades. from time to time you see this sort of thing happening. a few years ago Gillards poll numbers jumped 5% for no reason at all and the laborites shouted with glee only to see it all disappear the next month - also for no good reason.

What about this then?

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #109 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:52pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:42pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

Only Longy could publish a graph with the line going up & claim it was alright.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/labor-view.jpg

then feel free to draw what YOU think is the trend line.

this should be good...

Your lines start over 12 months after you said they should (3 years of upward trend is clearly not correct.) ?

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John Smith

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #110 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:55pm

Dnarever wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:52pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:42pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

Only Longy could publish a graph with the line going up & claim it was alright.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/labor-view.jpg

then feel free to draw what YOU think is the trend line.

this should be good...

Your lines start over 12 months after you said they should (3 years of upward trend is clearly not correct.) ?

its ok, longie studied maths and physics at uni Grin

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Our esteemed leader:
I hope that bitch who was running their brothels for them gets raped with a cactus.

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Bobby.

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #111 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:57pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:42pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:40pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:46pm:

St George of the Garden wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:34pm:

Yup, the trend has been accelerating through the term of the shambles to date.

Not surprising—cut govt spending drastically at this time and increased unemployment is the result. Now they want to bring in foreign workers, including those who cannot speak or read English and pay them under award. Who thinks this is going to decrease unemployment?

We will be lucky for unemployment not to have a 7 in front of it by the end of the year.

Only Longy could publish a graph with the line going up & claim it was alright.

http://www.ozpolitic.com/album/forum-attachments/labor-view.jpg

then feel free to draw what YOU think is the trend line.

this should be good...

That's easy - the trend is upwards - to more unemployment.

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Bam

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #112 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:01pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:41pm:

I have NEVER said unemployment is going down. In fact, I have been saying repeatedly that it has been trending UP for the last almost 3 years at roughly the same rate.

if you are going to disagree with me at lease do so with something I actually SAID.

Oh, really?

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Bam Gold Member Offline Australian Politics Posts: 21905 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #113 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:10pm Abbott promised to create one million jobs in five years ...
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Sprintcyclist

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #114 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:16pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:51pm:

with iron ore and coal prices dropping we have real problems.

Quote:

The Singleton Chamber of Commerce said mass layoffs in Hunter Valley’s mining sector have left the region reeling, with business conditions at an all-time low.

Figures for May show unemployment in the Hunter has jumped 9.2 per cent, a rise of more than 3 per cent from the same corresponding period last year.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows more than 4000 jobs have been lost in the region.

Mining jobs have been the hardest hit as thousands of coal workers faced the sack over the last six months.

More than 500 jobs were slashed from the Integra coal complex, which includes the Camberwell open-cut and Glennies Creek underground mines.

While jobs have also been cut from Anglo’s Drayton mine, Rio Tinto’s Mount Thorley Warkworth, and the BHP-run My Arthur Coal mine.

Companies servicing the industry have also been forced to pair back, with Sandvik cutting jobs at its Heatherbrae manufacturing and support facility.

With many businesses in the region relying on mining money to survive, some say they have never seen sentiment in the Hunter so low, ABC reported.

"I've never seen it this bad and I talk to people that are actually retired and they've never seen it this bad either," Singleton Chamber of Commerce Ryan Fitzpatrick said.

"The last couple of weeks has been a real strain on the region."

Fitzpatrick said the job losses are having an “incredible” effect on spending.

"We're seeing it in the towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook it's just quieter than normal,” he said.

"Speaking to people here at the moment everyone is a bit sort of concerned.

"A lack of decisions, what are they going to do not only for themselves in their employment but also for their families."

With coal prices expected to dip further, the news is not looking to get much better in region over the short-term.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said to expect more thermal coal price cuts this year.

Prices have halved since 2011 and are down almost 70 per cent on peaks reached in 2008.

Prices for premium hard-coking coal fell to $US120 a tonne in the June quarter from $US330 a tonne in 2011.

Thermal coal is sitting at $US72 a tonne on the spot market, a fall from $US125 in 2011.

Coal mines in NSW employed 21,953 workers last September, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 in June 2012 as miners move to readjust their workforces to pre-broom numbers.

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/i-ve-never-seen-it-this-bad-coal-job-loss...

We have some big problems on the horizon.
While I doubt that what anyone here says will help, trying to prove someone else wrong will not help.

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Sprintcyclist

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #115 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:20pm

Quote:

BHP mulls 3000 iron ore job cuts.

More than 500 jobs have already been chopped from BHP’s iron ore division in recent months, including 100 from the resources giant’s iron ore headquarters in Perth as well as 170 positions made redundant at its Mt Whaleback mine in the Pilbara.

…Sources say significantly greater cuts are expected as a result of a broader review conducted by management consulting firm McKinsey and Company, which has been examining BHP’s iron ore business in detail.

McKinsey reports are understood to have recommended BHP shed up to 20 per cent of its WA workforce, or more than 3000 positions, in an effort to reduce costs to the level of major rival Rio Tinto on a per-tonne basis.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/06/bhp-mulls-3000-iron-ore-job-cuts/

other iron ore companies are in the same predicament.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #116 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:22pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 8:06pm:

perceptions_now wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 7:38pm:

I would suggest, there are valid reasons for the phrase, "Lies, damned lies, and statistics", particularly Government Statistics and that applies to the Left, Right & Centre, of Politics!

That said, the Employment stats of the last 2 months, are clearly not just incorrect, they are substantially incorrect!

We can only but HOPE that the system is realigned, so the figures start to show something a little closer to Reality?

A good example of how wrong Government Stats can be, is demonstrated in the following chart -
http://shadowstats.com/imgs/charts/alt-unemployment-mini.gif
The above chart & other information is available at John
Williams Shadow Government Statistics, which is US based.
http://www.shadowstats.com/

another Prozac_now post that is off topic and wearing a tinfoil-hat.

Actually, my post was on topic Longy, I simply pointed out that the assumption of the topic was incorrect, because Government stats, from all Political Party's, are full of half or fully baked lies &/or distortions.

John Williams clearly demonstrates that there are "discrepancies" in his Shadow Government Statistics chart & website!

But, as usual, due to your problems with the 4 R's -
Reading
wRiting
aRithmetic
& compRehension
you fail to pick up on many things that are otherwise obvious, because they don't agree with your "beliefs".

Cheer up Longy?
And, have a nice day now, ya hear?

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #117 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:23pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:20pm:

Quote:

BHP mulls 3000 iron ore job cuts.

More than 500 jobs have already been chopped from BHP’s iron ore division in recent months, including 100 from the resources giant’s iron ore headquarters in Perth as well as 170 positions made redundant at its Mt Whaleback mine in the Pilbara.

…Sources say significantly greater cuts are expected as a result of a broader review conducted by management consulting firm McKinsey and Company, which has been examining BHP’s iron ore business in detail.

McKinsey reports are understood to have recommended BHP shed up to 20 per cent of its WA workforce, or more than 3000 positions, in an effort to reduce costs to the level of major rival Rio Tinto on a per-tonne basis.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/06/bhp-mulls-3000-iron-ore-job-cuts/

other iron ore companies are in the same predicament.

They got too fat in the resources boom, this was always going to be the result in the end.

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perceptions_now

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #118 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:31pm

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:16pm:

Sprintcyclist wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 5:51pm:

with iron ore and coal prices dropping we have real problems.

Quote:

The Singleton Chamber of Commerce said mass layoffs in Hunter Valley’s mining sector have left the region reeling, with business conditions at an all-time low.

Figures for May show unemployment in the Hunter has jumped 9.2 per cent, a rise of more than 3 per cent from the same corresponding period last year.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics data shows more than 4000 jobs have been lost in the region.

Mining jobs have been the hardest hit as thousands of coal workers faced the sack over the last six months.

More than 500 jobs were slashed from the Integra coal complex, which includes the Camberwell open-cut and Glennies Creek underground mines.

While jobs have also been cut from Anglo’s Drayton mine, Rio Tinto’s Mount Thorley Warkworth, and the BHP-run My Arthur Coal mine.

Companies servicing the industry have also been forced to pair back, with Sandvik cutting jobs at its Heatherbrae manufacturing and support facility.

With many businesses in the region relying on mining money to survive, some say they have never seen sentiment in the Hunter so low, ABC reported.

"I've never seen it this bad and I talk to people that are actually retired and they've never seen it this bad either," Singleton Chamber of Commerce Ryan Fitzpatrick said.

"The last couple of weeks has been a real strain on the region."

Fitzpatrick said the job losses are having an “incredible” effect on spending.

"We're seeing it in the towns of Singleton and Muswellbrook it's just quieter than normal,” he said.

"Speaking to people here at the moment everyone is a bit sort of concerned.

"A lack of decisions, what are they going to do not only for themselves in their employment but also for their families."

With coal prices expected to dip further, the news is not looking to get much better in region over the short-term.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts said to expect more thermal coal price cuts this year.

Prices have halved since 2011 and are down almost 70 per cent on peaks reached in 2008.

Prices for premium hard-coking coal fell to $US120 a tonne in the June quarter from $US330 a tonne in 2011.

Thermal coal is sitting at $US72 a tonne on the spot market, a fall from $US125 in 2011.

Coal mines in NSW employed 21,953 workers last September, down from a peak of nearly 25,000 in June 2012 as miners move to readjust their workforces to pre-broom numbers.

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/i-ve-never-seen-it-this-bad-coal-job-loss...

We have some big problems on the horizon.
While I doubt that what anyone here says will help, trying to prove someone else wrong will not help.

I agree!

As I have written recently, in the following post & others, we are facing some very difficult times & whether Labor or Liberal are in power, will only make small variations at the margins, whilst the real crunch will still be experienced, anyway!
http://www.ozpolitic.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1277536490/1073#1073

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St George of the Garden Gold Member Offline http://tinyurl.com/n 3o8m2x Posts: 9809 Gender:	Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott Reply #119 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 10:38pm Yup, with coal exports declining as countries move to cut emissions or due to economic concerns monkey rescinds the carbon price and might still rescind the RET. Bit out of step, wot?
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