Australian Politics Forum - Largest jobs growth for 23 years

longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #60 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 3:06pm

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 2:54pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I think that if you counted the true number of unemployed & added it to
those on the DSP who can't work - you'd get a figure of about

2 million people unemployed.

If the

Disability Support Pensioners

are now

"unemployed"

- why not add in those

"unemployed"

Aged Pensioners

, as well ?

and don't forget spouses that don't work.

unemployed can only be those that WANT to work, CAN work but cant get jobs.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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buzzanddidj

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #61 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 3:23pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 10:56am:

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 9:43am:

I've NEVER been a great believer in this

"polling" of 1000 odd people method

to find the nations unemployed numbers

... but at LEAST - up until NOW - there has been a credible, smooth calculation from one month to the next

The LATEST figures from the ABS have all the credibility of an
Essential Research
poll - or to paraphrase Longweekend58, a

"rogue poll"

I feel pretty confident in predicting an "adjustment" from the ABS in the next round of statistics

Now, HERE'S a thought ...

http://proverbs31jewels.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Bright_Idea.jpg

Hows about, every month, the government release the EASILY COLLATED numbers of

Centrelink Newstart payments over a fort-night ( ... including PART payments) plus the number of Newstart applications pending

THESE figures can't be FLAWED

dole payments don't reflect the number of unemployed. if you lose your job and your spouse is working, you cannot claim the dole. you are still unemployed.

Regardless of that micro demographic, it would HAVE to give a more accurate picture than a

random "phone around"

I MEAN, new jobs at TEN TIMES market economists' predictions and expectations ?

When did THAT last happen ?

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'I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.
Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.'

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Bobby.

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #62 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 3:26pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 3:06pm:

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 2:54pm:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I think that if you counted the true number of unemployed & added it to
those on the DSP who can't work - you'd get a figure of about

2 million people unemployed.

If the

Disability Support Pensioners

are now

"unemployed"

- why not add in those

"unemployed"

Aged Pensioners

, as well ?

and don't forget spouses that don't work.

unemployed can only be those that WANT to work, CAN work but cant get jobs.

Longy - you are naive -
you are forgetting that a lot of people who are unemployed
get the DSP by claiming to have a bad back or that they are crazy -
just to get enough money to live on as the dole is
way below the poverty line.

forgiven

namaste

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longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #63 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 4:53pm

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 3:23pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 10:56am:

buzzanddidj wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 9:43am:

I've NEVER been a great believer in this

"polling" of 1000 odd people method

to find the nations unemployed numbers

... but at LEAST - up until NOW - there has been a credible, smooth calculation from one month to the next

The LATEST figures from the ABS have all the credibility of an
Essential Research
poll - or to paraphrase Longweekend58, a

"rogue poll"

I feel pretty confident in predicting an "adjustment" from the ABS in the next round of statistics

Now, HERE'S a thought ...

http://proverbs31jewels.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Bright_Idea.jpg

Hows about, every month, the government release the EASILY COLLATED numbers of

Centrelink Newstart payments over a fort-night ( ... including PART payments) plus the number of Newstart applications pending

THESE figures can't be FLAWED

dole payments don't reflect the number of unemployed. if you lose your job and your spouse is working, you cannot claim the dole. you are still unemployed.

Regardless of that micro demographic, it would HAVE to give a more accurate picture than a

random "phone around"

I MEAN, new jobs at TEN TIMES market economists' predictions and expectations ?

When did THAT last happen ?

unders a LIBERAL govt!!!!

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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buzzanddidj

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #64 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 7:17pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

Now, if only Australians who WORK could share your

"sunshine, loli-pops and rainbows"

view of the economy through another two years of

Abbott/Hokkeidian

mismanagement

bogarde73 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:20pm:

Hundreds of workers at Coca-Cola Amatil's warehouses around the country will cop a pay freeze and new hires will receive pay of 38 per cent less to do the same job under new pay deals that provide a stark warning of the pressure on wages across the economy.

In the latest move in a national strategy to lower wages, beverage giant Coca-Cola Amatil sealed a new pay deal this week with its Victorian warehouse workers that locks in a pay freeze in 2015, followed by pay increase of about $30 in 2016.

The national rate of inflation of 3 per cent a year means these workers' wages will effectively go backwards

.

It is ONLY in times of
dire economic outlook
that workers will step forward to be
SHAFTED
by employers terms and conditions

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'I like your Christ, I do not like your Christians.
Your Christians are so unlike your Christ.'

- Mohandas Karamchand Gandhi

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Bam

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #65 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Bam

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #66 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:40pm

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 8:09am:

John Smith wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 8:04am:

oh look, longy the cheerleaders back

http://www.therealstevegray.com/wp-content/uploads/male_cheerleader.jpg

so JS choose your position on this

1) the 6.4% of last month was wrong and it was actually 6.1% so all your criticisms were unjustified

- OR -

2) the Abbott govt has massively improved employment and the biggest drop in unemployment in 35 years.

they are your only two choices and both suck for you.

Your logical fallacy is black-or-white

Quote:

You presented two alternative states as the only possibilities, when in fact more possibilities exist.

Also known as the false dilemma, this insidious tactic has the appearance of forming a logical argument, but under closer scrutiny it becomes evident that there are more possibilities than the either/or choice that is presented. Binary, black-or-white thinking doesn't allow for the many different variables, conditions, and contexts in which there would exist more than just the two possibilities put forth. It frames the argument misleadingly and obscures rational, honest debate.

Other possibilities:
* Last month's 6.4% figures were accurate and the current figures are an aberration.
* Both sets of figures are an aberration and the actual figures lie somewhere in the middle.

More possibilities also exist.

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You are not entitled to your opinion. You are only entitled to hold opinions that you can defend through sound, reasoned argument.

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Its time

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #67 - Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42pm

Bam wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

Don't confuse him, just the other day he was banging on about it being Labors fault for the highest unemployment in 10 year figures because of a "trickle effect", that only works for unemployment figures naturally

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St George of the Garden

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #68 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:10am

The unemployment surveys involve a bit more than 1000 people surveyed. More like 45,000.

No matter, the last two figures are a bit suss, but 120K part time jobs is unrealistic.

Regardless—unemployment is now over 6% and is going to go higher not lower and that is the real reason for the crap about the level of threat being raised and monkey jonesing to join a war, any war to distract from economic mismanagement.

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #69 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:40am

Poll: my answer would be neither or either.

The poll method is unreliable based on sample size and honesty in answering and the unemployment stats only cover those who register or are applicable to making a claim.

As long as the approach is consistent the numbers resulting normally produce a good idea of the current trend which is about all the stat is any good for providing.

What we currently do in normally adequate to map any change even though the final result is normally almost meaningless. The last 2 months seem to possibly be the one exception in my life memory which is a significant worry if employment really is that unstable at present - the best outcome would be for it to end up being an rogue poll or driven by some type of error / related to staff cuts etc.

If it is genuine we are in a mountain of trouble.

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St George of the Garden

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #70 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:43am

Sample size of 40K+ should be fine. Something else is behind the erratic figures.

Re growth in unemployment—this started with the fairly massive fiscal consolidation (cutting spending) trying to get a surplus. The cutting Abbott is doing is going to result in much more unemployment and recession. The reasons are simple—the labor market is fragile and the household sector is still heavily indebted. We get a recession watch out for house prices collapsing which will see the private sector cut spending even further.

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« Last Edit: Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:50am by St George of the Garden »

I want Muso as GMod. Bring back Muso!

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Dnarever

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #71 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:50am

Bobby. wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I think that if you counted the true number of unemployed & added it to
those on the DSP who can't work - you'd get a figure of about

2 million people unemployed.

From a population of 23 Million we have about 11 Million employed with 5 Million under 15 and 4.8 Million over 65.

Which leaves about 4 Million working aged people not working if you count it that way.

Not saying this means anything.

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Bobby.

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #72 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 7:11am

Dnarever wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 6:50am:

Bobby. wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:42am:

I think that if you counted the true number of unemployed & added it to
those on the DSP who can't work - you'd get a figure of about

2 million people unemployed.

From a population of 23 Million we have about 11 Million employed with 5 Million under 15 and 4.8 Million over 65.

Which leaves about 4 Million working aged people not working if you count it that way.

Not saying this means anything.

23 -11 - 5 - 4.8 = 2.2 million unemployed.

but then you have to subtract those still at school & university or TAFE.

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longweekend58

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #73 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:17am

Bam wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

which is PRECISELY what I have been saying. I am enjoying watching you clowns having to backpedal from last months hysteria. I studied university statistics and have been folloing polling for decades. from time to time you see this sort of thing happening. a few years ago Gillards poll numbers jumped 5% for no reason at all and the laborites shouted with glee only to see it all disappear the next month - also for no good reason.

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AUSSIE: "Speaking for myself, I could not care less about 298 human beings having their life snuffed out in a nano-second, or what impact that loss has on Members of their family, their parents..."

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cods

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Re: Largest jobs growth for 23 years - Onya Abbott
Reply #74 - Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:38am

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 13^th, 2014 at 9:17am:

Bam wrote on Sep 12^th, 2014 at 11:28pm:

longweekend58 wrote on Sep 11^th, 2014 at 1:22pm:

So when unemployment goes up it is a tragegy and Abbotts fault but when it comes down it is an accident and an aberration???

just another Abbott govt success, turning te unemployment rate around after a disastrous 6 years of labor.

It's rubbish posts like this which prove that you know nothing about statistics. It's simply a different ABS sample producing different figures. The best guess is that the previous month's figures (showing a jump) were an aberration.

Unemployment hasn't come down, not by that amount. There's too much weakness in the economy to indicate that unemployment is coming down, especially the soft wages growth.

which is PRECISELY what I have been saying. I am enjoying watching you clowns having to backpedal from last months hysteria. I studied university statistics and have been folloing polling for decades. from time to time you see this sort of thing happening. a few years ago Gillards poll numbers jumped 5% for no reason at all and the laborites shouted with glee only to see it all disappear the next month - also for no good reason.

dont you love the way the lefties believe all the charts and figures.. like the latest on who stopped the boats!!!!!!!! of course it was krudd.... Roll Eyes

the moment the figures favour the Libs.. they are all wrong and confused....we know...its amazing how it happen every time..

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Question: Are Newstart stats more accurate than the "poll method" ?
NO 7 (43.8%) YES 9 (56.2%) Total votes: 16 « Last Modified by: buzzanddidj on: Sep 12^th, 2014 at 9:49am »